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Ideal NRL & 2nd tier expansion in the medium term.

siv

First Grade
Messages
6,562
Who is to say any club will be weak,when the new grants plus 20 plus % comes to them.And on that basis provided they are getting the crowds and membership and their infrastructure is what it should be, why the hell should any be relocated.If they aren't performing so be it.

" Hundreds of thousands of new fans" needed .Don't think so. Average with very little cover and some poor scheduling was over 14,000 plus of late.Any club averaging 18-20,000 with the Tv deal monies would be more than happy.I'd further suggest their average this year will be well up.Membership as of 1st January is well up.
They will also have 2,000 people living right next door in new units.

The club at least will be in a position to improve infrastructure in the future and if an A League franchise is added plus owning a ground gives you leverage.

What happens if Canberra continues with their low crowds?They should be also averaging 20,000.Do they get relocated?Ditto the GC if they agree 15,000 or less or the Cowboys.

The intent was not a dick measuring comparison with the Dragons.It was simply to show, the areas are now different (St George with a large Chinese population and from other backgrounds) and the Illawara with people of backgrounds more inclined to be league followers.

I'm not suggesting you were open to mergers,I'm stating my experience with clients.
The area is fairly affluent middle-class,no code should ignore this ,nor areas like Manly.

The SL war and the peace deal had long term effects.It provided a boost for the Swans in terms of crowds due to disillusioned fans, that gave them further media support.It left North Sydney area pop what 3/4m?? going to Hornsby,a vacuum taken up by the Swans in particular and lesser degree the Tahs.

The growth of the Swan"s supporter base ,gave impetus to the AFL bringing in the GWS Gnats,thus the long term effect is still swirling around.Interesting to note the Swan's crowds from SL onwards and prior.

I'm not suggesting rationalisation,I'm proposing growth by addition.I cannot see for any rhyme or reason, why the NRL can't grow to 18 then 20 teams nationally.Provided all sustainable.

You may well be a former Bear's fan, but the only way many Bear's fans will get back in to the swing of things is
via a CC Bears club.You leave an area and AFL swoops.

Because I can tell you and this view is shared by more than a number of Sharks fans, if their club was chopped or relocated, they would not be jumping on another club.

If there was little competition from other codes in Sydney,the NRL would IMO give it some thought.ATM the last thing they need is more disgruntled or lost fans.

The one area that I do worry about is the Eastern Suburbs.

Why are you worried about Easts ?

You can ask any Norths, St George, Illawarra, Balmain, Wests, Crushers supporters how many really ztill follow the game

I know many on the north shore that just walked away
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
Nothing to do with hate, it's to do with passion for ones existing club.
Funny then ,when the Warriors play they get bigger crowds than when other sides play.
And Dragons fans in Melbourne as well as Warriors fans, do they attended week in week out for the Storm?
We have a swag of Rabbitohs fans in the Shire judging by car stickers, do they attend here every week?
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
Why are you worried about Easts ?

You can ask any Norths, St George, Illawarra, Balmain, Wests, Crushers supporters how many really ztill follow the game

I know many on the north shore that just walked away

Because the bulk of East supporters live outside the area ,not near the SFS.

That's my point siv.They are lost to the code.The numpties here think relocation or removal , that people would still follow the code or other clubs.I wished it would happen like that, from dealing with people who once followed the Bears that is not the case.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,842
You don't get it.I'll spell it out clearly.

The large numbers of people from the East Coast generally have their current NRL club to which they stick.Meaning in Perth unless their old team is playing ,they more than likely will not attend.

Meaning their moving there ,will not assist push Perth crowds week after week.In effect Perth have to rely on born and bred locals, in a AFL mad city.And yes Perth's isolation is a hindrance correct,and perhaps that is another negative sorry to report.

The evidence of fans attending games in perth regardless of who is playing would suggest this is not fully true. Sure you'll always get those who will only ever support their original club but there are plenty who love RL, are desperate to see games live, whose only live sport options at the moment are not palatable and would happily adopt Pirates as there second club. Pirates wont have any existing rivalry with other clubs so arenot on the nose with fans.
In my experience there are currently around 15-16k fans of this ilk from day one in Perth, future generations who grow up following the pirates will only add to this in years to come. Throw in the RL WA people and future population growth, which whilst slowed is still at around 50k per year, and bobs your uncle.

This is very different to growth in Cronulla or western Sydney where fans can still easily access there original club in Sydney and have an animosity towards the nearest club. You really think a Bulldogs fan will go to shark park or a Eeels fan will go to Penrith just because it is down the road?
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
Your are well aware or should be to know I am fully in support of Perth and indeed Brisbane 2 being the next expansion clubs.But as i have argued, not at the expanse of relocation, not whilst junior numbers are dropping.and only when the NRL clubs and they should beOK now are financially underpinned.

The concern also is the state of the economy there ,and I hope it's temporary, and just whether the club supporters will continue to come, if they have a couple of very lean years.

The animosity for Cronulla is the Sharks v Dragons.A result of the St George ,Cronulla Sutherland junior area being split,and Cronulla becoming a NSWRL club.
The Sharks get their biggest crowds with Souths and Dragons,in both cases decent numbers of their supporters also live in the Shire.
Crowds will attend on Sunday afternoons,Saturady nights in decent numbers.With the Sydney traffic and poor scheduling they will not.The pathetic traffic conditions in Sydney ,plus some stadiums are a turnoff for families on weekdays and even sometimes on weekends.
A taxi driver stated to me last week, there is niobium's such thing as peak hour in Sydney every daylight hour even on weekends is a peak hour.The roads cannot cope.

The experience for me is seeing former Bear's fans lost to the game some going to other codes, and the local junior system in a state of collapse.

Fans in Sydney that are passionate will travel,those who follow the team locally only ,will not and there are the blockbuster fans who will attend when they play local derbies.
Fans under all those descriptions will travel if their club is in a semi/quarter or G/F.

The question is ,whether 15-16,000 enough for any expansion club, when the same figures are called pretty ordinary when Sydney clubs (and yes that includes the Sharks)cannot get at least that average.
If I knew what the break even figure will be 2017,It would help.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,842
and thats where we will always differ. Its a poor business that throws money at failing arms of its business whilst ignoring much more lucrative new opportunities. The NRL is always going to be significantly hamstrung by having nine teams in one city. Both financially by having to throw much of its resources at them to make up for the unsustainability of over saturation and in max number of clubs in a league. All its energy and money is sorting out clubs that have had decades of existence meaning it has little left to grow the game. Hopefully the massive money they are throwing at clubs will sort it out but I have my doubts going on recent history.

As a life long fan of a club that has teetered on the edge of existence a few times I get that fans of those nine clubs are heavily invested in their survival at all costs but the bigger picture for rugby league would suggest that less clubs in Sydney and more expansion of the game will long term be far more lucrative.

People think its just about me wanting a perth team but tbh if Adelaide, wellington, Brisbane2 and Port Moresby were the strongest expansion options and brought into NRL ahead of perth I would over the moon as it would at least show a sport that was growing, willing to take some risks and make things happen.

re 15-16k, as a start point I think the NRl would be very happy. Some clubs, cough cough, have taken 40 plus years and a premiership winning season to get that many! Storm started on 9-10k and has taken decade plus, tens of millions of $'s and a winning team to get near that. To start from scratch with that foundation would be very positive id suggest.
 

siv

First Grade
Messages
6,562
So when we say junior numbers are dropping

If so where ?

Maybe that is a bigger reason for expansion

With Easts Balmain Newtown St George areas almost gone at junior levels. And now a similar effect starting in Manly and Parramatta

We expanded to address the effects of population shifts out the city centre when Annandale struggled with junior numbers

and then again when inner city impacts of Glebe/University occurred

and again when Newtown/Wests were impacted

And again when St George/Balmain/Easts were being impacted

Maybe its that time again after the Parramatta/Manly/Souths impacts
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,842
Well NRL ave been claiming last few years Jnr numbers are growing, so if they are dropping in Sydney other places must be picking up the slack?
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
So when we say junior numbers are dropping

If so where ?

Maybe that is a bigger reason for expansion

With Easts Balmain Newtown St George areas almost gone at junior levels. And now a similar effect starting in Manly and Parramatta

We expanded to address the effects of population shifts out the city centre when Annandale struggled with junior numbers

and then again when inner city impacts of Glebe/University occurred

and again when Newtown/Wests were impacted

And again when St George/Balmain/Easts were being impacted

Maybe its that time again after the Parramatta/Manly/Souths impacts


Contact football numbers have dropped in the bush and Sydney.The very reason Grant was panicking about getting more money from junior development.
If you are not providing decent financial support for grassroots ,you are bound to lose some.Volunteers need plenty of help with gear and regos.

Well North Sydney with a big population has no NRL club,that. certainly was impacted by their team getting the flick.
Nothing wrong with expansion, provided it doesn't cost financially initially such as GC and Auckland .

When Glebe Uni Annandale Newtown were in full swing union wasn't pro ,AFL was off the radar in Sydney,and soccer was a long distance from being big at any level.IOW the population was mainly white Anglos and end WW2 growing numbers of Italian,s and Greeks.

I repeat again, I have no problem with expansion.If for example a Perth,Brisbane 2,Adelaide and a north Sydney/CC side were feasible.But get your home base and current clubs sorted out then go on the expansion attack.
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
Well NRL ave been claiming last few years Jnr numbers are growing, so if they are dropping in Sydney other places must be picking up the slack?

They were growing in Old,but we are taking into account Touch and league tag numbers.This gives a confused view, especially for NSW.
The stupid off field acts of some players, do little to assist grassroots, judging by comments i have heard by a few mums.
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
and thats where we will always differ. Its a poor business that throws money at failing arms of its business whilst ignoring much more lucrative new opportunities. The NRL is always going to be significantly hamstrung by having nine teams in one city. Both financially by having to throw much of its resources at them to make up for the unsustainability of over saturation and in max number of clubs in a league. All its energy and money is sorting out clubs that have had decades of existence meaning it has little left to grow the game. Hopefully the massive money they are throwing at clubs will sort it out but I have my doubts going on recent history.

As a life long fan of a club that has teetered on the edge of existence a few times I get that fans of those nine clubs are heavily invested in their survival at all costs but the bigger picture for rugby league would suggest that less clubs in Sydney and more expansion of the game will long term be far more lucrative.

People think its just about me wanting a perth team but tbh if Adelaide, wellington, Brisbane2 and Port Moresby were the strongest expansion options and brought into NRL ahead of perth I would over the moon as it would at least show a sport that was growing, willing to take some risks and make things happen.

re 15-16k, as a start point I think the NRl would be very happy. Some clubs, cough cough, have taken 40 plus years and a premiership winning season to get that many! Storm started on 9-10k and has taken decade plus, tens of millions of $'s and a winning team to get near that. To start from scratch with that foundation would be very positive id suggest.
and thats where we will always differ. Its a poor business that throws money at failing arms of its business whilst ignoring much more lucrative new opportunities. The NRL is always going to be significantly hamstrung by having nine teams in one city. Both financially by having to throw much of its resources at them to make up for the unsustainability of over saturation and in max number of clubs in a league. All its energy and money is sorting out clubs that have had decades of existence meaning it has little left to grow the game. Hopefully the massive money they are throwing at clubs will sort it out but I have my doubts going on recent history.

As a life long fan of a club that has teetered on the edge of existence a few times I get that fans of those nine clubs are heavily invested in their survival at all costs but the bigger picture for rugby league would suggest that less clubs in Sydney and more expansion of the game will long term be far more lucrative.

People think its just about me wanting a perth team but tbh if Adelaide, wellington, Brisbane2 and Port Moresby were the strongest expansion options and brought into NRL ahead of perth I would over the moon as it would at least show a sport that was growing, willing to take some risks and make things happen.

re 15-16k, as a start point I think the NRl would be very happy. Some clubs, cough cough, have taken 40 plus years and a premiership winning season to get that many! Storm started on 9-10k and has taken decade plus, tens of millions of $'s and a winning team to get near that. To start from scratch with that foundation would be very positive id suggest.


The NRL is throwing money at the GC and Newcastle,both latter 20 and 21st Century expansion teams.Both with large junior base and populations.Both have had their share of problems and neither a Sydney club.

The AFL,the organisation you are always lauding have stated no more relocations, they will retain all their current Melbourne clubs, and some of those are losing money hand over fist.The expansion team Lions has lost to date nearly $14m and counting.GC and Gnats are getting large sums thrown at them.
What happens when new technology impacts further FTA and Pay TV? And the new Tv deals are not worth $2bn whatever.

Sydney is growing, go to the outskirts near Oran Park,The Oaks, Ropes Crossing and the new airport influence.It's not standing still.Rest assured the other codes will jump in when vacancies arise.

You see if we followed the approach of getting rid of the Sharks or relocating them because of their past financial problems, you wouldn't have the situation that in the last couple of years has occurred.Grand final win, huge crowd support from thousands of Sharks fans, their redevelopment underpinning their future regardless of what you think.We would have had a Nth Sydney 2,juniors disappearing, soccer or fumble ball taking over.If that helps the game, then I'm a good chance with Taylor Swift.

People think it's the way you approach the issue, with other clubs as if they are easily expendable, in order to get Perth in.

The thing that worries me the Cowboys were getting 18-20,000 averages ,that has dropped remarkably even after their 2015 G/F win.
If I knew all clubs were OK ,and grassroots was growing ,I'd be the first to push for Perth tomorrow.

I've been involved in Banking,Marketing and Export in my resume, nothing spectacular ,but one thing I learnt was not to ignore your main customers/clients ,whilst trying to grow your business.

I still get back to the stuff up on the last TV deal .Even if were a mere $40m pa extra over 5 years was secured ,that $200m could have assisted expansion and/or infrastructure improvements.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
15,291
If I knew all clubs were OK ,and grassroots was growing ,I'd be the first to push for Perth tomorrow.

We are never going to have circumstances where all the clubs are financially OK. It is just never going to happen. They spend above their means. Always have, always will.
It is a weak excuse to do nothing. We are a gutless code getting our arses kicked at every corner.
 
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Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,842
The NRL is throwing money at the GC and Newcastle,both latter 20 and 21st Century expansion teams.Both with large junior base and populations.Both have had their share of problems and neither a Sydney club.

The AFL,the organisation you are always lauding have stated no more relocations, they will retain all their current Melbourne clubs, and some of those are losing money hand over fist.The expansion team Lions has lost to date nearly $14m and counting.GC and Gnats are getting large sums thrown at them.
What happens when new technology impacts further FTA and Pay TV? And the new Tv deals are not worth $2bn whatever.

Sydney is growing, go to the outskirts near Oran Park,The Oaks, Ropes Crossing and the new airport influence.It's not standing still.Rest assured the other codes will jump in when vacancies arise.

You see if we followed the approach of getting rid of the Sharks or relocating them because of their past financial problems, you wouldn't have the situation that in the last couple of years has occurred.Grand final win, huge crowd support from thousands of Sharks fans, their redevelopment underpinning their future regardless of what you think.We would have had a Nth Sydney 2,juniors disappearing, soccer or fumble ball taking over.If that helps the game, then I'm a good chance with Taylor Swift.

People think it's the way you approach the issue, with other clubs as if they are easily expendable, in order to get Perth in.

The thing that worries me the Cowboys were getting 18-20,000 averages ,that has dropped remarkably even after their 2015 G/F win.
If I knew all clubs were OK ,and grassroots was growing ,I'd be the first to push for Perth tomorrow.

I've been involved in Banking,Marketing and Export in my resume, nothing spectacular ,but one thing I learnt was not to ignore your main customers/clients ,whilst trying to grow your business.

I still get back to the stuff up on the last TV deal .Even if were a mere $40m pa extra over 5 years was secured ,that $200m could have assisted expansion and/or infrastructure improvements.

Few things to debate in all that:
1. Not saying Sydney clubs are the only ones in financial distress, but they are the only ones were oversaturation is a key contributor. You can sort GC out by better stadium deal and better management which is happening, you can sort Newcastle out by better tapping into their huge supporter base and stronger corporate support (the latter may prove much more difficult and is one of the key problems with regional area clubs it seems). The problems facing many Sydney clubs is that the historic funding from pokie clubs is disappearing and the challenge fo finding sustainable funding sources from fans and corporates becomes very problematic when you have nine clubs all fishing in the same fish pond (to quote David gallop lol)

2. There would be nothing easy about relegating or relocating existing clubs. It would be hard, very hard. It may or may not be the answer but the NRL should not be kicking pebbles waiting to grow because it has an unsustainable situation with some clubs now.

3. All crowds have dropped, mostly due to sht scheduling and NRL's & clubs inability to turn a latent fan base into an active one. Its only last few years they have looked at growing memberships and now they are growing. one day the clubs might realise there is more money in gate takings and memberships than in TV grants, but the NRL wants the grants and clubs are fed a line that they have to accept the schedule regardless of impact on crowds

4. I don't get the argument that if you cut a club in a suburb the region will turn to another sport that doesn't have a club representing that region. it makes no sense. if you cut a club with no plan in place to fill the void sure, but that doesn't require a NRl club in every Sydney suburb to achieve.

5. AFL are going to pay the price at some point for not forcing Nth Melbourne to go to the GC. They were dumb for not shifting two Melbourne clubs into GWS and GC and it is costing them big time. Having said that they could see the problem, have put in a place a raft of financial strategies to deal with it and not let it stop their expansion plans.
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
We are never going to have circumstances where all the clubs are financially OK. It is just never going to happen. They spend above their means. Always have, always will.
It is a weak excuse to do nothing. We are a gutless code getting our arses kicked at every corner.

If the clubs are not financially OK after receiving 120plus % of the salary cap, that would be the case.Most clubs now have professional boards rather than the old footballers club.

Always have spent .when they either tried to cheat the cap run by amateurs.

" Weak excuse" .Better than spending extreme amounts of money on expansion that costs millions of dollars for ages ,with little to show for it.

And you think losing $90m pa is not getting your arse kicked.
 

taipan

Referee
Messages
22,409
Few things to debate in all that:
1. Not saying Sydney clubs are the only ones in financial distress, but they are the only ones were oversaturation is a key contributor. You can sort GC out by better stadium deal and better management which is happening, you can sort Newcastle out by better tapping into their huge supporter base and stronger corporate support (the latter may prove much more difficult and is one of the key problems with regional area clubs it seems). The problems facing many Sydney clubs is that the historic funding from pokie clubs is disappearing and the challenge fo finding sustainable funding sources from fans and corporates becomes very problematic when you have nine clubs all fishing in the same fish pond (to quote David gallop lol)

2. There would be nothing easy about relegating or relocating existing clubs. It would be hard, very hard. It may or may not be the answer but the NRL should not be kicking pebbles waiting to grow because it has an unsustainable situation with some clubs now.

3. All crowds have dropped, mostly due to sht scheduling and NRL's & clubs inability to turn a latent fan base into an active one. Its only last few years they have looked at growing memberships and now they are growing. one day the clubs might realise there is more money in gate takings and memberships than in TV grants, but the NRL wants the grants and clubs are fed a line that they have to accept the schedule regardless of impact on crowds

4. I don't get the argument that if you cut a club in a suburb the region will turn to another sport that doesn't have a club representing that region. it makes no sense. if you cut a club with no plan in place to fill the void sure, but that doesn't require a NRl club in every Sydney suburb to achieve.

5. AFL are going to pay the price at some point for not forcing Nth Melbourne to go to the GC. They were dumb for not shifting two Melbourne clubs into GWS and GC and it is costing them big time. Having said that they could see the problem, have put in a place a raft of financial strategies to deal with it and not let it stop their expansion plans.

1) "Oversaturation". Sydney's population is over 5.0m plus the population of Wollongong to be added ,still growing .That covers 9 clubs.That's one club for every 555,000+ not even including the C.C.Areas neglected Nth Shore and South West.If that is oversaturation,then so are the cities representing 500,000 or less people.
We are "oversaturated" with codes more like it, and any code regardless of which one, who loses a club in an area, will soon have that vacuum filled by the opposition code.Strrengthening your direct competition in your heartland at the expense of your own code,is whiteanting the base on which you live.A marketing disaster in the making.

2) of course there is nothing easy about relegating or relocating or chopping.It's been done in rugby league and has proved costly, in more ways than one.I don't have to spell out examples.If we haven't learnt a lesson, then we deserve to get done over.

3) Scheduling plays its part with crowds, as does traffic,costs,performance of teams and other forms of entertainment.And I might add venues.And live TV makes people lazy.AFL crowds/soccer crowds/union crowds are either down or static

4) You mightn't get it, but I have experienced it with people I know through my work,lost to the game.Former Bears,Wests ,Tigers and Dragons supporters.If you haven't followed a club for a long time, you can't appreciate the fact.Have a look at the Souths exclusion.That was one of the dumbest decisions by any mgt.
Many Swans supporters come from the Nth Suburbs,they could've been Bear supporters.

5) AFL are paying the price now with the Lions debacle, the huge sums for Gnats and Suns,the Wellington NZ experiment disaster.Where they expanded into heartland areas like WA and SA they did OK.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,842
Its not as simple as numbers of people, there is a number of factors. For example in simple terms you could take taipans argument and say 9 into Sydneys 4.5mill means 500k reach for each club. Of course the reality is very different with geographically isolated clubs like Cronulla, Manly, Penrith etc have far smaller local population and clubs like Souths, Bulldogs, eels etc reaching much bigger parts of Sydney. This is reflected in memberships, crowds and revenue (including appeal to sponsors)

Then you have somewhere like Perth with 2million people but of course only a small % of that will be interested in NRL and there is a lot of competition from other sports in that 2mill population, unlike say NQ who has 250k but little competition in a RL mad area.

Having said that if you don't have a decent size population to target and strong corporate support no amount of money from the NRL is going to help you stay in touch with the clubs who do have big city appeal unless you have a tiered grant system like AFL. Melbourne or Brisbane getting another $5mill extra grant is going to mean they are still way ahead of Cronulla or Manly who will get the same increase.

It would need some very strong corporate or strategic positioning arguments to consider putting a team in a regional city of less than 400k imo.
 
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