Understanding the 2021 World Cup Qualifiers

[adamkungl]

So, we have an annoucement!
However, the wording is a bit messy if you don't plot it all out, and there a couple of gaps which need to be filled hopefully by the May meeting. Here's the picture according to the RLIF:

RLIF Rugby League World Cup 2021 Qualification

In respect of the qualification process for the RLIF Rugby League World Cup 2021 it was agreed that this would be a 16 -team tournament. Seven teams will be qualified from Europe, 6 from Asia Pacific , 2 from the Americas and one from a play-off series hosted in Middle East/Africa . The Quarter-Finalists in the 2017 RLIF Rugby League World Cup will qualify as of right.

Should 6 teams not pre-qualify via the RLIF RLWC17 Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific then the 16th place will be awarded to Middle East/Africa.

Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific in 2017 and Lebanon do not qualify via the Quarter- Finals in 2017 then the 16th place will be determined by a play-off hosted in Middle East/Africa between the Middle East/Africa Champions and the 7th placed nation in Asia-Pacific.

Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter- Finals from Asia Pacific and Lebanon qualify via the Quarter Finals in 2017 that a play-off be held hosted by Middle East/Africa between the highest placed team in Middle/East Africa excluding Lebanon, the 3rd placed team in the Americas and the 7th placed team in Asia-Pacific.

RLIF Chairman Nigel Wood commented;

“The Board were mindful that every nation should have an opportunity to participate in a qualification process for the RLIF Rugby League World Cup in 2021. This solution provides every nation with that opportunity whilst rewarding success for eight of our Members who reach the Quarter-Finals of the 2017 RLIF Rugby League World Cup.”

Well then. Let's map that out.
First thing to note, depending on how results fall with the auto-qualifiers, the split listed in the first paragraph can change for each region. As you can see below..

There are 4 scenarios I see, though the announcement only lists 3.

1: Should 6 teams not pre-qualify via the RLIF RLWC17 Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific then the 16th place will be awarded to Middle East/Africa.

This means :
Asia-Pacific: 2-5 auto qualify. There must be a Pacific qualification series to decide the remaining 1-4 places to make a total of 6*.
Europe: 1-5 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide the remaining 2-6 places to make a total of 7.
Americas: 0-1 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the remaining 0-1 places to make a total of 2.
Middle-East/Africa: 0-1 Auto qualify.
1A: Lebanon does not auto qualify: There is a Middle East/Africa qualification series to decide the 1 place.
So there will be 6 Pacific, 7 Europe, 2 American, 1 Middle East/African.

*1B: Lebanon does auto qualify: Here's the missing part from the RLIF. If they are true to their word about every nation having a chance to qualify, there should be a playoff the same as scenario 3.
2nd ranked Middle East/Africa vs the 6th ranked Pacific vs the 3rd ranked American.
So we could see 5 Pacific and either 3 American or 2 Middle East/African. Or the same split as 1A.
Or maybe they'll just shaft Middle-East/Africa..

2: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific in 2017 and Lebanon do not qualify via the Quarter- Finals in 2017 then the 16th place will be determined by a play-off hosted in Middle East/Africa between the Middle East/Africa Champions and the 7th placed nation in Asia-Pacific.

This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are England and France.
Europe: 2 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide 5 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places.
Middle-East/Africaa: 0 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.

The playoff will be between Pacfic and Middle-East/Africa for the 16th spot.
So there will be either 7 Pacific teams and none from Middle-East/Africa region, or 6 and 1.

3: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter- Finals from Asia Pacific and Lebanon qualify via the Quarter Finals in 2017 that a play-off be held hosted by Middle East/Africa between the highest placed team in Middle/East Africa excluding Lebanon, the 3rd placed team in the Americas and the 7th placed team in Asia-Pacific.

This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are Lebanon and 1 of England and France.
Europe: 1 auto qualifies. There will be a European qualification series to decide 6 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places and the 3rd team to enter the playoff.
Middle-East/Africa: 1 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.

The playoff will be between Asia-Pacfic, Americas and Africa-MiddleEast for the 16th spot.
So we could potentially see 7 Pacific teams, or 3 American teams, or 2 from the Middle-East/Africa region.
**But this doesn't make any sense. That adds up to 17 teams: 6 + 7 + 2 + 1 + 1
Either Europe loses a place (and 7th team enters the playoff too, for fairness) or it's actually the 2nd ranked American team that enters the playoff.

Questions:
- The 1B scenario listed above?
- The scenario 3 '17th team' bug listed above?
- It is also unclear whether the pacific-7th playoff spot will be decided by ranking or tournament. Hopefully tournament.

Notes:
- There will definitely be a European series, presumably similar format to last time but hopefully expanded to more than 6 teams.
- One of the 2 extra spots has been allocated to Europe. Time for Serbia or Russia to step up.
- The other spot is open to the rest of the world, depending how 2017 results fall. We could potentially see Cook Islands, Philippines, Canada, Jamaica, or South Africa competing for it.


It's a pretty ugly format I think - there are certainly clearer ways to go about explaining it.

Hopefully this helps and hopefully those gaps are plugged come May. I expect the likely outcome if one of these scenarios does come up is everyone is caught by surprise and they hastily fix it up at the last minute and Americas or African regions get shafted.

 

[deluded pom?]

My head hurts.

 

[adamkungl]

My head hurts.

My explanation or the RLIFs?

Don't think I can do any better with what we've been given haha

 

[deluded pom?]

My explanation or the RLIFs?

Don't think I can do any better with what we've been given haha

Not your explanation, the original explanation.

 

[paulmac]

RLIF should just have said
Europe 7
Oceania 6
Americas 1
Asia/Africa 1
Repecharge 1
Very confusing,probably best to have waited till after this years RLWC was done & dusted and quarter finalists were known.

 

[adamkungl]

Id have gone
5 Europe
5 Asia-Pacific
1 Americas
1 MEA
(12)
Round 1 qualifiers: Hosts and 2017 Semi finalists.
Round 2 qualifiers: Seeded from results of 2019 Top tier Regional tournaments to fill remaining spots from above totals.
*If USA or Lebanon qualify via the 2017WC semis their region gets an extra spot and round 3 playoff series doesnt take place.

Round 3 qualifiers:
2 places via Europe qualifying series.
1 place via Pacific vs Americas qualifying series. *does not take place if USA qualifies in 2017 semis.
1 place via Asia vs MEA qualifying series. *does not take place if Lebanon qualifies in 2017 semis.

 

[jim_57]

I'll try understanding this again when the 8 auto-qualifiers are confirmed...

Really though those fringe spots were always going to be hard to cater to for qualifying. The current 14 are pretty established as the best in their region except for USA would have tense battles with Jamaica and Canada. Next best teams (Serbia, Russia, Cook Islands, South Africa etc) are a little way behind.

 

[Burns]

Its confusing, but will make more sense after the quarters of the WC I suppose.

 

[Force]

Rather confusing, moreso when the RLIF allocated the extra two spots for certain regions when they should've been up for grabs in a play-off tournament for the remaining teams that missed out on qualifying through their regions.

I would like to see:

6 spots for Europe (eg,Eng,Fra,Ire,Scot,Wal,Ita)
6 for Asia/Pacific (eg,OZ,NZ,Sa,Ton,Fij,PNG)
1 for America (eg,US)
1 for ME/Asia (eg,lebanese)
2 for the rest who missed out. (eg,Cooks,Rus,Jam,Can,Serb,Niue,Sth Afr etc...)

Or, add the ME/Africa spot to the two repechage spots so 3 are up for grabs. Lebanon had a piss weak opposition to qualify for this years World Cup.

 

[Foreign Legion]

.... is this Super Rugby?

 

[paulmac]

Prediction time.Quarter finalist s from this years RLWC will probably be Aus,Eng,France,NZ ,Samoa,Tonga,Fiji & PNG.
So that would leave the qualifying series looking like this
Europe 5
North America 2
Asia/Pacific/Africa 1
Great opportunity for Serbia or Russia.Nth America should be close & Lebanon will have to battle it out with the Cook Is & Sth Africa.

 

[IntRLEnthusiast]

So the 1 position being played off for in the Middle-East/Africa is that a second chance for those who miss out in other qualification like potentially Jamaica? or is that just a place for the Middle-East/Africa? I'm confused

 

[Force]

So the 1 position being played off for in the Middle-East/Africa is that a second chance for those who miss out in other qualification like potentially Jamaica? or is that just a place for the Middle-East/Africa? I'm confused

Beats me....I dont know why they label it Middle East/Africa when it looks more than likely its only going to be played there but contested between teams not from the region.

Europe should only have 6 (or less) allocated spots cos their 7th team will be mediocre. The qualifying system needs a tweak as I would much rather see a repechage tournament for all the fringe teams from the various regions who missed out cos some regions have it easier than others. This way you will eliminate potential bigger cricket scores at the World Cup.

 

[adamkungl]

So the 1 position being played off for in the Middle-East/Africa is that a second chance for those who miss out in other qualification like potentially Jamaica? or is that just a place for the Middle-East/Africa? I'm confused

Depends on other results at this point.

 

[jim_57]

Beats me....I dont know why they label it Middle East/Africa when it looks more than likely its only going to be played there but contested between teams not from the region.

Europe should only have 6 (or less) allocated spots cos their 7th team will be mediocre. The qualifying system needs a tweak as I would much rather see a repechage tournament for all the fringe teams from the various regions who missed out cos some regions have it easier than others. This way you will eliminate potential bigger cricket scores at the World Cup.

Minimum 6 from Europe, maximum 6 from Pacific for me. Not to say 6 from each isn't fine, but another very small island nation over the likes of Russia, Serbia or Spain wouldn't be beneficial in my eyes, even if results slightly improved.

 

[Force]

Minimum 6 from Europe, maximum 6 from Pacific for me. Not to say 6 from each isn't fine, but another very small island nation over the likes of Russia, Serbia or Spain wouldn't be beneficial in my eyes, even if results slightly improved.

I just dont want to see Cricket scores at a World Cup which unfortunately is what we'll get with the likes of Russia, Serbia and Spain. I reckon its best to wait until they reach a higher standard instead of rushing them in now.

 

[adamkungl]

Looking ahead to 2025 id like to see

6 Europe
4 Pacific
2 Americas
1 Asia
1 Africa
as definite.
With the final 2 spots decided by playoff series including pacific, american, asian and african nations.

 

[deal.with.it]

Thing is, if you have teams from asia and middle east you attract more sponsorship dollars that can be used for domestic development.

 

[adamkungl]

Thing is, if you have teams from asia and middle east you attract more sponsorship dollars that can be used for domestic development.

Pretty much.
A World Cup with 7 tiny Pacific islands at the expense of 3 continents attracts no notice in the world.
A World Cup with representation from every continent gets respect and viewers and sponsorship.

 

[Knownothing]

Major events do not "get respect". They have to earn it. Substance is what counts, not window-dressing. The viewing public are not mugs. Give them something authentic, and you have a chance. Give them fluff, and you have no chance.


People who worry about blow-out scores, for example, need to understand that every major world wide event contains some competitors who are only there because of geography. The margin of victory, or loss, is not as important as the genuineness of the contests.


People who scoff at the RU World Cup because there are games that are hugely one-sided need to look at the apparent respect with which the event is treated in general terms. It is successful because it is willing to be genuinely representative (to the extent of the game's frontiers, that is).