adamkungl
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So, we have an annoucement!
However, the wording is a bit messy if you don't plot it all out, and there a couple of gaps which need to be filled hopefully by the May meeting. Here's the picture according to the RLIF:
Well then. Let's map that out.
First thing to note, depending on how results fall with the auto-qualifiers, the split listed in the first paragraph can change for each region. As you can see below..
There are 4 scenarios I see, though the announcement only lists 3.
1: Should 6 teams not pre-qualify via the RLIF RLWC17 Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific then the 16th place will be awarded to Middle East/Africa.
This means :
Asia-Pacific: 2-5 auto qualify. There must be a Pacific qualification series to decide the remaining 1-4 places to make a total of 6*.
Europe: 1-5 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide the remaining 2-6 places to make a total of 7.
Americas: 0-1 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the remaining 0-1 places to make a total of 2.
Middle-East/Africa: 0-1 Auto qualify.
1A: Lebanon does not auto qualify: There is a Middle East/Africa qualification series to decide the 1 place.
So there will be 6 Pacific, 7 Europe, 2 American, 1 Middle East/African.
*1B: Lebanon does auto qualify: Here's the missing part from the RLIF. If they are true to their word about every nation having a chance to qualify, there should be a playoff the same as scenario 3.
2nd ranked Middle East/Africa vs the 6th ranked Pacific vs the 3rd ranked American.
So we could see 5 Pacific and either 3 American or 2 Middle East/African. Or the same split as 1A.
Or maybe they'll just shaft Middle-East/Africa..
2: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific in 2017 and Lebanon do not qualify via the Quarter- Finals in 2017 then the 16th place will be determined by a play-off hosted in Middle East/Africa between the Middle East/Africa Champions and the 7th placed nation in Asia-Pacific.
This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are England and France.
Europe: 2 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide 5 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places.
Middle-East/Africaa: 0 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.
The playoff will be between Pacfic and Middle-East/Africa for the 16th spot.
So there will be either 7 Pacific teams and none from Middle-East/Africa region, or 6 and 1.
3: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter- Finals from Asia Pacific and Lebanon qualify via the Quarter Finals in 2017 that a play-off be held hosted by Middle East/Africa between the highest placed team in Middle/East Africa excluding Lebanon, the 3rd placed team in the Americas and the 7th placed team in Asia-Pacific.
This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are Lebanon and 1 of England and France.
Europe: 1 auto qualifies. There will be a European qualification series to decide 6 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places and the 3rd team to enter the playoff.
Middle-East/Africa: 1 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.
The playoff will be between Asia-Pacfic, Americas and Africa-MiddleEast for the 16th spot.
So we could potentially see 7 Pacific teams, or 3 American teams, or 2 from the Middle-East/Africa region.
**But this doesn't make any sense. That adds up to 17 teams: 6 + 7 + 2 + 1 + 1
Either Europe loses a place (and 7th team enters the playoff too, for fairness) or it's actually the 2nd ranked American team that enters the playoff.
Questions:
- The 1B scenario listed above?
- The scenario 3 '17th team' bug listed above?
- It is also unclear whether the pacific-7th playoff spot will be decided by ranking or tournament. Hopefully tournament.
Notes:
- There will definitely be a European series, presumably similar format to last time but hopefully expanded to more than 6 teams.
- One of the 2 extra spots has been allocated to Europe. Time for Serbia or Russia to step up.
- The other spot is open to the rest of the world, depending how 2017 results fall. We could potentially see Cook Islands, Philippines, Canada, Jamaica, or South Africa competing for it.
It's a pretty ugly format I think - there are certainly clearer ways to go about explaining it.
Hopefully this helps and hopefully those gaps are plugged come May. I expect the likely outcome if one of these scenarios does come up is everyone is caught by surprise and they hastily fix it up at the last minute and Americas or African regions get shafted.
However, the wording is a bit messy if you don't plot it all out, and there a couple of gaps which need to be filled hopefully by the May meeting. Here's the picture according to the RLIF:
RLIF Rugby League World Cup 2021 Qualification
In respect of the qualification process for the RLIF Rugby League World Cup 2021 it was agreed that this would be a 16 -team tournament. Seven teams will be qualified from Europe, 6 from Asia Pacific , 2 from the Americas and one from a play-off series hosted in Middle East/Africa . The Quarter-Finalists in the 2017 RLIF Rugby League World Cup will qualify as of right.
Should 6 teams not pre-qualify via the RLIF RLWC17 Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific then the 16th place will be awarded to Middle East/Africa.
Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific in 2017 and Lebanon do not qualify via the Quarter- Finals in 2017 then the 16th place will be determined by a play-off hosted in Middle East/Africa between the Middle East/Africa Champions and the 7th placed nation in Asia-Pacific.
Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter- Finals from Asia Pacific and Lebanon qualify via the Quarter Finals in 2017 that a play-off be held hosted by Middle East/Africa between the highest placed team in Middle/East Africa excluding Lebanon, the 3rd placed team in the Americas and the 7th placed team in Asia-Pacific.
RLIF Chairman Nigel Wood commented;
“The Board were mindful that every nation should have an opportunity to participate in a qualification process for the RLIF Rugby League World Cup in 2021. This solution provides every nation with that opportunity whilst rewarding success for eight of our Members who reach the Quarter-Finals of the 2017 RLIF Rugby League World Cup.”
Well then. Let's map that out.
First thing to note, depending on how results fall with the auto-qualifiers, the split listed in the first paragraph can change for each region. As you can see below..
There are 4 scenarios I see, though the announcement only lists 3.
1: Should 6 teams not pre-qualify via the RLIF RLWC17 Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific then the 16th place will be awarded to Middle East/Africa.
This means :
Asia-Pacific: 2-5 auto qualify. There must be a Pacific qualification series to decide the remaining 1-4 places to make a total of 6*.
Europe: 1-5 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide the remaining 2-6 places to make a total of 7.
Americas: 0-1 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the remaining 0-1 places to make a total of 2.
Middle-East/Africa: 0-1 Auto qualify.
1A: Lebanon does not auto qualify: There is a Middle East/Africa qualification series to decide the 1 place.
So there will be 6 Pacific, 7 Europe, 2 American, 1 Middle East/African.
*1B: Lebanon does auto qualify: Here's the missing part from the RLIF. If they are true to their word about every nation having a chance to qualify, there should be a playoff the same as scenario 3.
2nd ranked Middle East/Africa vs the 6th ranked Pacific vs the 3rd ranked American.
So we could see 5 Pacific and either 3 American or 2 Middle East/African. Or the same split as 1A.
Or maybe they'll just shaft Middle-East/Africa..
2: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter-Finals from Asia-Pacific in 2017 and Lebanon do not qualify via the Quarter- Finals in 2017 then the 16th place will be determined by a play-off hosted in Middle East/Africa between the Middle East/Africa Champions and the 7th placed nation in Asia-Pacific.
This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are England and France.
Europe: 2 auto qualify. There will be a European qualification series to decide 5 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places.
Middle-East/Africaa: 0 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.
The playoff will be between Pacfic and Middle-East/Africa for the 16th spot.
So there will be either 7 Pacific teams and none from Middle-East/Africa region, or 6 and 1.
3: Should 6 teams pre-qualify via the Quarter- Finals from Asia Pacific and Lebanon qualify via the Quarter Finals in 2017 that a play-off be held hosted by Middle East/Africa between the highest placed team in Middle/East Africa excluding Lebanon, the 3rd placed team in the Americas and the 7th placed team in Asia-Pacific.
This means...
Asia-Pacific: 6 auto qualify. There might be a Pacific qualification series to decide the 7th placed team that enters the playoff.
The remaining 2 autos are Lebanon and 1 of England and France.
Europe: 1 auto qualifies. There will be a European qualification series to decide 6 places to make a total of 7
Americas: 0 Auto qualify. There will be an American qualification series to decide the 2 places and the 3rd team to enter the playoff.
Middle-East/Africa: 1 Auto qualify. There will be a Middle-East/Africa qualification series to decide who enters the playoff.
The playoff will be between Asia-Pacfic, Americas and Africa-MiddleEast for the 16th spot.
So we could potentially see 7 Pacific teams, or 3 American teams, or 2 from the Middle-East/Africa region.
**But this doesn't make any sense. That adds up to 17 teams: 6 + 7 + 2 + 1 + 1
Either Europe loses a place (and 7th team enters the playoff too, for fairness) or it's actually the 2nd ranked American team that enters the playoff.
Questions:
- The 1B scenario listed above?
- The scenario 3 '17th team' bug listed above?
- It is also unclear whether the pacific-7th playoff spot will be decided by ranking or tournament. Hopefully tournament.
Notes:
- There will definitely be a European series, presumably similar format to last time but hopefully expanded to more than 6 teams.
- One of the 2 extra spots has been allocated to Europe. Time for Serbia or Russia to step up.
- The other spot is open to the rest of the world, depending how 2017 results fall. We could potentially see Cook Islands, Philippines, Canada, Jamaica, or South Africa competing for it.
It's a pretty ugly format I think - there are certainly clearer ways to go about explaining it.
Hopefully this helps and hopefully those gaps are plugged come May. I expect the likely outcome if one of these scenarios does come up is everyone is caught by surprise and they hastily fix it up at the last minute and Americas or African regions get shafted.