1/3Term Wonder? Malcolm Turnbull

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by whall15, Sep 14, 2015.

  1. skeepe

    skeepe Immortal

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    Enter James Paterson.

     
  2. justdave

    justdave Juniors

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    Not this local. You’re right though, they think the rules are shit. I think the brains of my fellow New Englanders are full of shit
     
  3. Hello, I'm The Doctor

    Hello, I'm The Doctor First Grade

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    I think this is Shortens biggest asset...

    No one thinks he will be any good, so all he has to do is be slightly better than people expect and people will love him. I see him a lot like Howard; politically brilliant, not charismatic or well liked but able to perform so relentlessly that he develops a grudging respect from even his opponents.

    We've seen that the jesus-come-again figure doesnt work; Rudd and Turnbull both came in with such high expectations that they could only ever disappoint people. And stepping in mid-term has been equally deadly (gillard, Turnbull, post-Carr Labor NSW Premiers, Gladys); they lack the natural authority that comes with the stint in opposition and carrying a party into government.

    Since Howard, the only person well placed to last was Abbott, all he had to do was not be as terrible as people expected. His problem was that he ended up being worse. Shorten is clearly in the same boat, except he isnt a fringe ideological fundiamentalist. My prediction is that we will be into his 3rd term before he looks like genuinely being challenged for the PMship...
     
  4. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Shorten Is a conniving slime ball just like Rudd, people will wake up to that fairly quickly.
     
  5. Hello, I'm The Doctor

    Hello, I'm The Doctor First Grade

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    He's held his party together for 5 years now without any serious challenge to his leadership. He seems like a smart guy.

    As for the public worrying abut him being "conniving" and "slimmy", i reckon that will make them like him more. Standard rule in politics: its impossible to be incharge AND be liked, so its better to be seen as evil than incompetent.

    This is killing Turnbull and it killed Abbott (people just kept laughing when they were trying to be scary leaders)

    Its also probably the biggest strategic f*ckup by the Libs since Abbott one; he has been showing Shorten/the Union as shady, evil and cunning. But that just means their good at what they do and most people just want the cunning dude on their side.
     
  6. madunit

    madunit Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Third term?

    Hell no. He'll be fortunate to survive one in the Australian Lynching Party
     
  7. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Abs held the Libs together in opposition for 4 years, and he wasn't even a back stabbing knife man.

    You're right doc people just love slimey untrustworthy merkins
     
  8. 2_Smoking_Guns

    2_Smoking_Guns First Grade

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    Julie Bishop was a lawyer who built her career on delaying hearings for terminal asbestosis sufferers to avoid payments and she's currently the pick of the crop for rightard voters.... so you're probably right Shirls....
     
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  9. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Youre probably right

    A lawyer representing her clients is truly disgusting.
     
  10. 2_Smoking_Guns

    2_Smoking_Guns First Grade

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    People dying because they went to work and did their job is disgusting. Purposely delaying compensation payments with the hope they die first is something I would expect rightards to condone, and here you are. But Bill is a slimeball.....
     
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  11. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Do you think the lawyer should have done a shit job instead ?

    Should murderers even get a lawyer ?
     
  12. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    Holy f**k. Kristina Keneally is running in Bennelong as the ALP candidate.
     
  13. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Labor want to win the seat.

    Is she the best option ? She is certainly the highest profile. That said they need a 9 point swing it would be the death kneel for turnbull if labor took it
     
  14. I Bleed Maroon

    I Bleed Maroon Coach

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    At this point, it wouldn't surprise me. If she campaigned locally to the right of Labor proper, she would be in for a very good chance.
     
  15. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    They must have done some polling in the electorate to see how she is viewed. If JA is not eligible because he can't renounce in time, and they can't find a suitably high profile replacement (or a superb campaigner/local identity), you'd have to say Labor is in with a big shot.
     
  16. Parra

    Parra Coach

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    Biggest problem is that the seat is in nsw. And people have memories.

    This is some sort of joke. Turnbull is at his weakest so Shorten shoots himself in the foot.

    Keneally was a puppet leader for one of the most corrupt governments this state has seen. And in NSW that is saying something. She was there right at the end, the last mouthpiece of something we are all glad to see the back of.

    Shorten is so out of touch on this.
     
  17. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    I tend to agree but she might be the highest profile person who is willing to throw their name in the ring. Even as things stand now in the polls (labor up by 10) they would still fall short in bennelong on a nation wide swing. Labor is looking (according to polling) at a swing of 5.5 percent. That would put them short in bennelong

    Profile matters a lot in these sorts of local races. Basically i agree with the theory of the move but like you in practice she is quite connected with obeid so i dont think its a good move.

    This is an election to see how the right feel about turnbull still basically
     
  18. Desert Qlder

    Desert Qlder First Grade

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    Strong candidate. Alexander and Turnbull under huge pressure.
     
  19. butchmcdick

    butchmcdick Guest

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    I think the ALP might have conducted a few polls prior to her running
     
  20. Hello, I'm The Doctor

    Hello, I'm The Doctor First Grade

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    Why?

    We all seem to think the leadership merry-go-round is just the new trend. No one acknowledges that these were actually just a bunch of exceptional circumstances.

    Rudd was elected after only 9months as OL (all of which was in campaign mode) so he never learned to manage the party. He was a shit leader and Labor didnt know what they were in for when they punted him (they had done it half a dozen times in Opposition).

    Gillard was ditched because Rudd went crazy and Labor couldnt talk him out of his campaign to get back into the lodge.

    Abbott began in a good position to lead for a long time, but he went crazy and everyone hated him even more. The Libs could either stay with him and lose the election or change.

    Now Abbott has gone crazy and Turnbull cannot get any air.

    The last few years have been exceptional, not a new rule. The parties obviously forgot how important period in Opposition was to the incoming government. Labor havent made the same mistake, and with them forming a stable (though perhaps unspectacular) government, the Libs will need to do the same...
     
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