1/3Term Wonder? Malcolm Turnbull

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by whall15, Sep 14, 2015.

  1. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    Responsible economic management. At least Labor has a warchest.

    (Libs are also on track to more than double net debt in the next 6 months or so. Just short of $524b at present; ALP was $280b http://aofm.gov.au)
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
  2. Mong

    Mong Post Whore

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    #laborsdebt
    #blamelabor
    #adults
    #watchandlearn
     
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  3. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    It's only x% of gdp
     
  4. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    No, It's 2 x X% of GDP.
     
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  5. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    There has never been a more exciting time to be Australian, what with Santa coming with his bag of goodies, and his gift that is both for this generation and the next.

    X per cent of GDP? Hold my beer (or Christmas eggnog, as it were).
     
  6. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    No it's always only been x% of gdp
     
  7. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    No, it was X%, now it's 2X%

    X being = or > a debt and deficit disaster,

    We no longer have one of these, so it can no longer be X alone
     
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  8. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    I like the bit about how this sudden influx of revenue they've been talking about the last few days is not expected to be sustained, but was just lucky timing, and they're going to go out and spend it all anyway on income tax cuts.
     
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  9. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    Another reason I wonder whether they'll go early. Quite powerful messaging if your opponent more than doubles debt, while claiming to be responsible economic managers, and then goes ahead and cuts major revenue sources like company tax and income tax while going on a spendathon for monuments and the like.


    "Beeeeep". There's that credit card again.
     
  10. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    It's certainly beginning to sound like an election year budget, we'll see I guess.
     
  11. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    No X is just an algebraic symbol
     
  12. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    Which can be assigned a value. All you need is a constant.
     
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  13. cerberus

    cerberus First Grade

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    looks like the amount of money the funky bunch are spending on "feelgood " adds
    may add a variable to your equation BW , maybe "P" for pork barrel ratio ?
     
  14. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    Saw on Sky earlier today that if Shorten were in power, and they had the influx of one-off revenue that is coming our way, he would pay off the debt first and foremost and then if there's any money left, he'd spend it on health and education.
     
  15. 2_Smoking_Guns

    2_Smoking_Guns First Grade

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    So under Labor debt was x% of GDP, and under the current government debt is X% of GDP, where X = 2x. Happy now?
     
  16. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Nope it's still just x%
     
  17. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    In terms of the election date, one would have to think that this would have to be the election year budget given the last date for an election 18th May 2019

    The NSW state election is 23rd of March, so that would leave a pretty small window of either the 27th of April or the 4th, 11th or 18th of May, ( Easter falling on the weekend of Sat 21st April ) and the weekend of the 4th May is a long weekend for Tas , NT and Qld. So that pretty much rules out that date.

    At any rate, you'd have to believe that calling an election directly after the NSW election, and / or in the weeks leading up to the budget wouldn't make a great deal of sense.

    The Victorian State election is on the 24th November, So unless we have a campaign the overlaps that, we can rule out all of November and December, and likely most of October with Saturday the 29th of September being on a long weekend in Victoria, Act, Nsw Qld and SA, That really only leaves the 6th and the 13th October as realistic dates, without over lapping with the Vic election, and the 6th is probably unlikely as why would you hold an election with the weekend before being the AFL and NRL Grand finals?

    With January and February traditionally out, ( no ones gonna call an election over Xmas ) March gone, Most of April gone because that'd mean calling the election during the NSW state election, and May offering up very few dates, I reckon we are Odds on for this year.

    With October, November and December basically ruled out, and the earliest possible date being 4th August, That leaves us with August and September. and 13th October.

    Ruling out the 29th Sept, that leaves the following

    August 4, 11, 18, 25, September 1, 8, 15, 22 October 13,

    Or in 2019, April 27, May 11 or 18.

    I'd reckon that the government would obviously want to see a bump in polling from the budget before calling an election, so assuming that happened, and they'd want more than just a sugar hit from a single poll, the budget being handed down on 8th may, the next newspoll dates being the 20th May. 3rd and 17th June, with a 33 day election period after the writs are issued, that's plenty of time for an election in August or September.
     
  18. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    Pretty much my thoughts exactly. I'd make a couple of observations: 1) the NSW Labor party is polling very closely to the NSW Libs at present and 2) the VIC Libs are polling very closely to VIC Labor at present. The powerful NSW and VIC branches aren't going to want federal creep into their polling day, particularly as it's a full state election, not just a by-election.

    Here's a stat. Of the federal elections held since the end of WW2, 75 per cent have been held in the second half of the year.

    They can only dissolve parliament during a sitting period, so that would mean for an August election (if you're not planning a long campaign) parliament would be dissolved during the last two weeks of June, otherwise for September it's some time between the 13th and 23rd of August. After that you're getting into a late October election, which overlaps with the VIC campaign and, I would think, is not something the VIC state libs would want and is also very late for campaigning on Budget measures.

    The Prime Minister has said the election will be next year, but he and the Coalition are hardly going to telegraph a timeframe to Labor, and they'll want the option of going earlier. The recent story was that Turnbull wanted all the Lib preselections done by June - Scullion's is done from memory already - and the Nats were in a similar boat. Putting a timeframe on something that really didn't need to be done until December this year for an election by May next year seems... Odd.

    My sneaking suspicion is they'll campaign hard on Budget stuff right into August/September, which is my (early) prediction for an election.
     
  19. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    I think more than anything they ( the government ) would at this stage just want to keep the option for going early there. The Issue for running into next year is, as I set out, the paucity of available dates, so if they don't go in August / September, they pretty much give away an advantage of incumbency, that being the ability to pick the timing, because they are then all but locked into late April / early May next year.
     
  20. Game_Breaker

    Game_Breaker First Grade

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    Which is 1-2 months after the NSW state election
     

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