30 points to make the 8?

[2012....Sharks Year]

At the halfway point 16 points is 7th spot this year and with 5 or 6 sides not really being in contention for the finals I'd suggest it will take 30 points with a decent for and against to make the 8 this year. From memory 28 points has been safe in recent years and 26 has even qualified on occasion?

 

[Valheru]

But it is a top 8, not a top 7 and you should be looking at what 9th is on. They are currently on 12 points which suggests 28 will be enough for spot 8, maybe even 26 with a decent F/A.

 

[2012....Sharks Year]

8th is on 14 points without having had a bye which effectively puts them on 18 points after 15 rounds. With 11 rounds to play a 6 and 5 record would get them to 30 points.

 

[TheFrog]

Last year 8th place had 27, but had Parramatta not lost points, they would have run 8th on 30.

Every other year since 2011, 8th place has had 28. Some years teams on 28 have missed out.

In 2010 the Storm lost all their points, but would have run 5th on the wins they had. The 8th team would have had 30.

Leaving aside teams losing points, what tends to push up the points needed for 8th place is a team (or more than one) that wins very few games, like the Knights last year. Conversely a tear away leader that loses very few games tends to lower the bar for 8th.

At the halfway point 16 points is 7th spot this year and

It's almost impossible to gauge what 8th will need from what 8th has now, because some teams have had a bye and others haven't, but going on history if you reach 28 with a good positive points difference, you'd be unfortunate to miss out.

 

[Barkley]

From memory 28 points gets you around 8th or 9th, but 30 points virtually guarantees you a spot in the top 8.

 

[Barkley]

The top 7 sides look pretty set to me, I can't see any of them missing the finals. Even this far out I think only Canberra (9) or Penrith (10) have a chance of making the finals. (Pretty obvious statement I know)

 

[TheFrog]

The top 7 sides look pretty set to me, I can't see any of them missing the finals. Even this far out I think only Canberra (9) or Penrith (10) have a chance of making the finals. (Pretty obvious statement I know)

The Warriors will probably make a run at it but fall short. They do this every year.

The Cowboys have a pretty tough draw, only 3 games against the bottom 6 and they have to play all the top sides. They are in a pretty good position but I wouldn't regard them as past the post at this stage. They'll need JT healthy.

 

[footy75]

Agree, Warriors, Penrith and Canberra will all make a run...

It is going to be a serious log jam and come down to the final round again like last year.

30 and you should be in.

 

[The Engineers Room]

Form can turn quickly. I don't think Cowboys or Broncos are safe just yet.

 

[PANTHERMIKE]

Manly will fade away, cowboys not sold, Dragons mmmmm might be safe, just

 

[TheFrog]

Dragons mmmmm might be safe, just

They need 4 more wins from 12 and have 7 games against teams outside the top 10, including the Knights, Titans and Dogs twice each. It would take a monumental choke for them to even miss the top 4.

At $13 for the Giltinan, I'd be on them if I were a betting man with the draw they've got.

 

[grozzy]

It's probably easier to think of it in terms of wins, not points. Half the teams make it to the finals, so winning half your games is roughly the aim. That makes 12/24 games played and add 1 to be sure. Add the byes and you have 30 points as your target.

 

[Cockosh]

In the last 10 seasons (including 2017) the team in 8th place at round 13 has been on 14 points 7 times and 16 points 3 times (2008, 2009, 2014). My bet would be 28 points again after 26 rounds.

 

[Tommy Smith]

Lol at the Warriors making a run.

Maybe they've got the runs. That would explain their performances.

But they have zero chance of making the top 8.

The top 7 are settled for me unless JT reinjures his shoulder and misses the season.

And you have the Eels and Panthers fighting for 8th.

The Raiders draw is as hard as the Dragons is easy so they're cooked. Ricky clearly can't coach again.

 

[toomuchsoup]

They need 4 more wins from 12 and have 7 games against teams outside the top 10, including the Knights, Titans and Dogs twice each. It would take a monumental choke for them to even miss the top 4.

At $13 for the Giltinan, I'd be on them if I were a betting man with the draw they've got.

They were paying $81 at the start of the season. I was dumb enough to put 20 on