Automation and stuff

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by Pete Cash, Jun 1, 2016.

  1. bazza

    bazza Coach

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    Thanks B-dos
    If your assumptions are true, would that mean that the only advantage that a human has over a robot to become a property tycoon is having eyes?
     
  2. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    its the first time ive thought about automating the process baz

    there are undoubtedly lots of times that it is helpful to be a human. to attend meetings and argue issues

    however the real core of it, identifying sites, calculating the feasability of investments or projects and monitoring investments and construction, could certainly be fully automated.

    a human being combined with the automated software would be a pretty good property tycoon
     
  3. bazza

    bazza Coach

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    It would seem that you think that there is not a lot of skill in being a property tycoon which seems fair enough

    Do you think a robot would be able to determine the development sites that are most likely to be rezoned or the best local politician to meet with to ensure that rezoning changes are made favourably?
     
  4. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    it would take someone fairly skilled at these things to program the software baz.

    its weird that you think if a computer can do something that there is not a lot of skill involved
     
  5. bazza

    bazza Coach

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    From what I understand of computing, most programs take a set of rules that can be applied.
    If someones job is to take a workflow and follow it through using the logic rules, then I do not see a lot of skill in that. What do you think?
     
  6. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    as discussed in this thread baz, a huge range of professions can be automated because they follow a simple set of rules. it would remain to be seen whether in practice they are as good as humans but it could definitely be done

    the skill part is in deciding how the workflow actually works and what the software looks for in determining a good investment or project

    all that said, given you hold the view it is so easy im amazed you are still renting. you really should give property investment and development a go
     
  7. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    If the robot could wrangle loans like Alan bond then I think it could become a Tycoon.
     
  8. SpaceMonkey

    SpaceMonkey Coach

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    It really comes down to whether the decisions bring made by the computer can be broken down into simple enough steps. Computers currently can't make complex decisions but they can makes a LOT of simple ones very quickly which can in many instances be combined to achieve quite complex tasks. Spmthing like driving a truck is a good example. It's really just a process of continuously monitoring a range of sensory inputs then making a constant stream of simple decisions on the fly in response. With the right sensors and enough computing power that can be easily automated.
    I'm not sure some of the elements of being a property tycoon can be broken down as easily.
     
  9. Danish

    Danish Referee

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    So you don't see a lot of skill in being a surgeon then?
     
  10. Danish

    Danish Referee

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    I would argue that simple property investment could absolutely be automated.

    If you created a property investment program in 2006 which essentially monitored the real estate sites for new properties, assigned each a number through a random number generator, and then invested in all even numbered properties, I can't see how you would have lost money over the last decade.

    The main issue would be having the capital to make the initial purchases, and then also the cash flow to be able to cover the inevitable periods of losses while waiting for the next win (this is the same risk humans making these decisions run into anyway)
     
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  11. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    thats a very basic way of looking at it danish but youre right, such a theory would probably have made money

    i was thinking along the lines of software that would scan new listings, match these up against things like demographics, check rental yields in the area, determine a fair market value based on recent sales in the area and obviously calculate estimated yield based on the purcahse price

    for development which is more sophisticated it would basically do the same thing but check land size and shape etc, calculate the number of units or townhouses that could fit on the block, work out a rate per square meter, do a feasability analysis on the development and then simply show the human being the sites that generate the best yields.

    its actually 100% possible given its mostly just maths and research and analysing the results.
     
  12. The Charlatan

    The Charlatan Coach

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    Of course it can, haven't you seen the movie "The Bank?" ;)
     
  13. bazza

    bazza Coach

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    That is true Danish
    Thankfully robots don't care for smashed avocado breakfasts
     
  14. Firey_Dragon

    Firey_Dragon Coach

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    Computers are very good at making complex decisions. They aren't good at dealing with emotional decisions.

    'Property tycoons' in most global markets simply look at real estate board statistics for property size, rooms and previous sales in an area as a guide and determine pricing from there. You could easily automate that. Take the emotional investment out of it and you'd have slower property growth but you'd have quicker market reaction times as well. Australia is somewhat unique in the majority of sales are auction based, which adds unpredictability. Stock investment is infinitely more complex data analysis and that is heading the way of automation. With neural networking computers are much better at analyzing trends than humans ever will be.

    Humans only make small decisions to make up a complex decision as well. In the case of real estate it's usually, do I have enough money, should I use all my budget, what work is needed, is this the right location etc etc. Computers can analyze that data in many more ways without emotion than humans can, which makes for more sound investment... For a house to live in, not so much.

    The real risk automation faces is that it's generally only as good as the developer in thinking of all the 'what if' scenarios. That is changing with AI which is obviously self-learning, but again if that isn't implemented well there is no guarantee it has the capability to understand environment or use that information.
     
  15. Parra

    Parra Coach

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  16. Generalzod

    Generalzod Coach

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-28/what-s-wrong-with-bill-gates-robot-tax

    Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates made a splash in a recent interview, when he suggested that robots should be taxed in order to help humans keep their jobs:

    Right now, the human worker who does, say, $50,000 worth of work in a factory, that income is taxed and you get income tax, social security tax, all those things. If a robot comes in to do the same thing, you’d think that we’d tax the robot at a similar level.

    Gates is only one of many people in the tech world who have worried about automation and its threat to workers. YCombinator founder Sam Altman, for instance, is conducting an experiment with basic income -- a regular cash payment to all households. That policy has gained popularity across Silicon Valley, if not in the rest of the country.
     
  17. bazza

    bazza Coach

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  18. Danish

    Danish Referee

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    A robot accountant would by definition follow all tax laws perfectly, automatically making them unhireable by any business
     
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  19. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Moderator Staff Member

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    I would disagree.

    So would millions of others who use accountants to legitimately reduce their tax bill. Frankly, if I thought my accountant needed to be dodgy to in order to minimise my tax, I'd get another accountant.
     
  20. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Public servants

    Hang on they are already robots
     
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