Brexit

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by whall15, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. whall15

    whall15 Coach

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    Now this is interesting.

    The Brexit movement practically conceded defeat a few hours ago but the first results are very promising for them.

    The first large constituency to report, Newcastle was expected to be a stronghold for Remain, yet Remain only won narrowly 50.7% - 49.3%.

    Sunderland was expected to be a bellwether and the polling models anticipated 53% to leave, early reports have it in the mid-60s.

    There could be a polling error and an upset today.
     
  2. whall15

    whall15 Coach

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    Sunderland voted leave 61-39.
     
  3. Danish

    Danish Referee

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    What are the possible outcomes if they do decide to exit? Both for the UK, and the world?

    People seem to be of the opinion that them leaving will be very bad for the UK and global economy, but I'm not really sure why.

    FYI I have no horse in the race, and generally these sorts of political economic debates just cause my eyes to glaze over, but id be interested to know what effect this is going to have if it gets up
     
  4. whall15

    whall15 Coach

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    I'm not real sure tbqh. The markets have reacted quite poorly though, the value of the Pound dropped 6% after the Sunderland result.
     
  5. Parra

    Parra Coach

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    It will be interesting to see how it goes. Early news (and odds) indicated remain would be the result.

    Here is a great speech for the exit case https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YNcF3h3NgQ

    Fantastic orator & reasoning.
     
  6. Mr Angry

    Mr Angry Not a Referee

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    There is strength in numbers.

    Remain.
     
  7. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    It's all about the trade deals , the EU do them all, the UK would have to negotiate it's own which would take time.
     
  8. Jimbo

    Jimbo Immortal

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    Brexit would remove the third biggest economy from the European Union, which is already rather low on confidence thanks to the likes of Greece

    That's where the fear of instability is coming from
     
  9. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    There are lots of reasons why it could be bad for Britain. For one thing europe is Britain's biggest trade partner s. Its extremely possible that the EU f**ks them on trade conditions to discourage other member states from leaving. The EU takes half of british exports where the eu only sends ten percent of theirs back the other way.

    At a minimum the trade conditions Britain would get are going to be on par with norway where norway is forced to allow the free movement of eu citizens and other financial incentives in exchange for free access to european markets. Thus making the biggest argument against the eu moot.

    Last year i would have supported this but over the last year ive had a turnaround on free trade which i think is a net good even if it hurts vulnerable people. I just think governments should do more to pick up the slack where communities are hurt by the death of manufacturing or whatever.

    The eu is extremely flawed. They want all the benefits of a huge pool of humans but none of the responsibility. Im sure the federal government in the united states would love to tell new mexico and Mississippi to take a hike but the united states understands that they get strength from being a larger group of smaller states but there are some responsibilities in making sure the least wealthy get subsidised by the stronger economies.

    I think the eu needs to have an honest talk about its future but brexit i believe is flawed how it is. I would have voted no but i understand why folks who are feeling the pinch might vote yes. I just dont believe thr transition will be a smooth one.

    Edit

    Basically Britain needs europes markets. Free access to them is going to come with the very conditions thst is motivating brexit supporters (financial input to the eu, free movement of eu citizens, etc) with the added risk of London losing its status as the financial centre of europe and Britain to become completely undesirable for european investment which is pretty significant

    So to me its probably a pointless endeavour at best and one that will cause great economic harm at worst.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  10. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Also if you all can forgive the double post britain will also have no say in european policy while being beholden to it because they need them for trade.
     
  11. Game_Breaker

    Game_Breaker First Grade

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    Brexit supporters don't seem to have any idea on trade and are basing their vote on immigration.
     
  12. Generalzod

    Generalzod Coach

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    Greece should have voted to leave the EURO and aligned with the Russians at least they have a strong and Religious connection...
     
  13. Danish

    Danish Referee

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    So from what's being said here, it's really Britain that stands to have potential issues, rather than any problems for the rest of the world? And Australia basically won't feel any effects?

    Pete, you mentioned Europe is in a huge trade deficit with the U.K. Wouldn't that put the UK in prime negotiating position when making new trade deals rather than the other way round as you seem to be saying?
     
  14. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    international financial markets will be impacted so in that sense australia will certainly feel an affect
     
  15. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    We might benefit with the UK taking more of our produce as opposed to that of subsidised Eu produce
     
  16. Generalzod

    Generalzod Coach

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  17. JW

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  18. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Britain has the trade deficit its one of the arguments brexit supporters make that europe needs britain and would basically keep business as normal.

    However britains trade deficit is with only two eu member states (germany and the Netherlands) and any trade deal has to be approved by the other member states. The EU is much larger than britain so its 10 percent goes pretty far.

    The point being that britain is pretty dependent on europes markets. I also suspect that there will be pressure from within the political class to accept a norway like deal. Its much better for big business.
     
  19. bazza

    bazza Coach

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    The main effect of the UK leaving is that the tabloids and righties will have to find someone besides the EU to blame for their problems
     
  20. The Charlatan

    The Charlatan Coach

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    If you were looking to buy pounds, now is the time to do so.
     

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