Hayne~NFL~RU~Tits~Eels~Dad~Jailed~Mistrial~Jailed 5yrs~Retrial~Jailed~Appeal

[hineyrulz]

Journalism desperation mate.

Yeah I know I’m just taking the piss. If he came back it would be on the wing or in the centres anyway.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Would rather finish 8th and make the grand final than finish 4th and get bounced out in straight sets.

Neither situation is likely.

 

[Noise]

Neither situation is likely.

Though they did both happen this year

 

[Joshuatheeel]

Anyway my point was Hayne has never played in a side that played consistent good footy for the whole year. And were considered genuine contenders. Which a top 4 spot indicates.

We may have made the GF in 2009 but missed the finals in the previous year and the following 7 years.

I suspect we may now be genuine finals contenders for several years (like the Roosters/sharks/cowboys/broncos/storm), so while our finish this year wasn't good, its just the beginning of the process.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Though they did both happen this year

Unlikely things happen. They’re unlikely to happen again in any given year. Top four should be the goal, not scraping into the eight and hoping for a run.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Anyway my point was Hayne has never played in a side that played consistent good footy for the whole year. And were considered genuine contenders. Which a top 4 spot indicates.

We may have made the GF in 2009 but missed the finals in the previous year and the following 7 years.

I suspect we may now be genuine finals contenders for several years (like the Roosters/sharks/cowboys/broncos/storm), so while our finish this year wasn't good, its just the beginning of the process.

Our finish wasn’t bad. We played the two grand finalists for a combined -10 differential.

 

[Twizzle]

Neither situation is likely.

Unlikely things happen.

Bored today are we ?

 

[IFR33K]

Anyway my point was Hayne has never played in a side that played consistent good footy for the whole year. And were considered genuine contenders. Which a top 4 spot indicates.

We may have made the GF in 2009 but missed the finals in the previous year and the following 7 years.

I suspect we may now be genuine finals contenders for several years (like the Roosters/sharks/cowboys/broncos/storm), so while our finish this year wasn't good, its just the beginning of the process.

Not defending Hayne here, but in his defence joy:) he was here when there was f**k all stability. Had BA been here in 07-17, I dare say Hayne and the eels would of played a far consistent brand of footy.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Bored today are we ?

I’m not the one who came up with an unlikely hypothetical.

 

[hindy111]

Anyway my point was Hayne has never played in a side that played consistent good footy for the whole year. And were considered genuine contenders. Which a top 4 spot indicates.

We may have made the GF in 2009 but missed the finals in the previous year and the following 7 years.

I suspect we may now be genuine finals contenders for several years (like the Roosters/sharks/cowboys/broncos/storm), so while our finish this year wasn't good, its just the beginning of the process.

Haynes never been in a great parra side has he? Most of his career has been spent in ordinary squads.
Swap him and Slater and I reckon he would go down as an immortal.

 

[Happy MEel]

Neither situation is likely.

...but entirely possible.

Since this current finals format commenced in 2012, a top 4 team has lost their first two finals matches 50% of the time (3/6). Melbourne in 2013, Manly in 2014 and us in 2017.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I would expect the first game to be 50% but the second one is likely against against a lower ranked team, so greater than 50% win chance. Obviously the sample is too small for the percentages to be evident.

 

[parra-matters]

Haynes never been in a great parra side has he? Most of his career has been spent in ordinary squads.
Swap him and Slater and I reckon he would go down as an immortal.

yeah imagine him running off halves like Moses and Norman compared to running of Mortimer and Robson.

 

[hineyrulz]

...but entirely possible.

Since this current finals format commenced in 2012, a top 4 team has lost their first two finals matches 50% of the time (3/6). Melbourne in 2013, Manly in 2014 and us in 2017.

Very unlikely

 

[hineyrulz]

I would expect the first game to be 50% but the second one is likely against against a lower ranked team, so greater than 50% win chance. Obviously the sample is too small for the percentages to be evident.

And out comes the old sample size...........

 

[Poupou Escobar]

If you flip heads 15 times in 20 does the chance of heads or tails change from 50%

 

[Gronk]

If you flip heads 15 times in 20 does the chance of heads or tails change from 50%

When you can snatch the pebble from my hand Grasshopper, it will be time for you to leave.

 

[Happy MEel]

I would expect the first game to be 50% but the second one is likely against against a lower ranked team, so greater than 50% win chance. Obviously the sample is too small for the percentages to be evident.

So is your definition of ‘unlikely’ simply less than 50%?

If so, I think you’re on your own there.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So is your definition of ‘unlikely’ simply less than 50%?

If so, I think you’re on your own there.

50% of 50% is 1/4. That’s unlikely.

 

[Happy MEel]

50% of 50% is 1/4. That’s unlikely.

Even 1 in 4 is not how I’d define unlikely. Certainly not high enough to counter the OP’s initial position anyway.