our future stars

[Old Timer]

The hardest thing to replace with Packer is not so much his numbers being around 100m a game, but his leadership, experience and aggression, all of which cannot be expected of a young player. LAM is a possibility as he puts out similar numbers, but lacks that spark that Packer has.

If that is the case and if the loss of his leadership is the hardest thing to replace why the hell did recruitment let him go?
That quality is not easily attainable in players
They could have punted an existing bench player, upgraded a junior to the bench and offered Packer a better deal
If only we knew what our promising juniors really offered maybe we could make a better decision?
If your scenario is correct then we actually lost Packer because we kept a bench player and didn't promote some one with obvious potential
Short sighted on our part but not unexpected unfortunately

 

[BennyV]

Why not punt 1 of LAM or Sims (no good as starting props) and get a real high quality starting prop and move Kerr or Lawrie to the bench?
It's the average bench player that is stopping the transition.

Which high quality prop? If it was as easy as that, I'm sure Sims or Ah Mau (who I wouldnt write off as a starter just yet) would have been punted.

In addition, you are then relying on a 21yo to punch out a full season as a crucial part in a prop rotation. Keeping in mind that, aside from a few freaks like Klemmer, props dont start to hit their straps properly until mid-late 20s. It's a position that requires a high workload on large men and will take a long time to adapt to, even just a bench role.

Then there's the question of depth.

What they are doing with Sele seems to be exactly the plan for Lawrie and Kerr - time in reggies to adapt to that level and then prep them for the step up. It's the best thing for them and we will gain the most of it in the long run. In the meantime, while we will struggle to replace Packers full package, we can go partway by bringing in an aggressive forward leader type (such as Blair) or an impact prop who is proven to be up to it (such as Kasiano). Someone who can fill the voi between now and these guys being 100% ready.

I dont want to see another Jack Stockwell.

 

[BrissyRedV]

If that is the case and if the loss of his leadership is the hardest thing to replace why the hell did recruitment let him go?
That quality is not easily attainable in players
They could have punted an existing bench player, upgraded a junior to the bench and offered Packer a better deal
If only we knew what our promising juniors really offered maybe we could make a better decision?
If your scenario is correct then we actually lost Packer because we kept a bench player and didn't promote some one with obvious potential
Short sighted on our part but not unexpected unfortunately

The question is how much do you put a value on that leadership in Packers case and how many players do you intend lose to keep him? No questioning his quality, but with the figures being bandied about as to the Tigers offer, would his retention have been worth the loss of depth? Who knows what our exact salary cap position is, but at some stage for a team operating by the rules, something has to give. Just unfortunately it was Packer in this case and we are yet to find out who his replacement will be so I am willing to ride this out for a bit.

 

[Old Timer]

Which high quality prop? If it was as easy as that, I'm sure Sims or Ah Mau (who I wouldnt write off as a starter just yet) would have been punted.

In addition, you are then relying on a 21yo to punch out a full season as a crucial part in a prop rotation. Keeping in mind that, aside from a few freaks like Klemmer, props dont start to hit their straps properly until mid-late 20s. It's a position that requires a high workload on large men and will take a long time to adapt to, even just a bench role.

Then there's the question of depth.

What they are doing with Sele seems to be exactly the plan for Lawrie and Kerr - time in reggies to adapt to that level and then prep them for the step up. It's the best thing for them and we will gain the most of it in the long run. In the meantime, while we will struggle to replace Packers full package, we can go partway by bringing in an aggressive forward leader type (such as Blair) or an impact prop who is proven to be up to it (such as Kasiano). Someone who can fill the voi between now and these guys being 100% ready.

I dont want to see another Jack Stockwell.

Benny
Re: Props available Blair would be my pick as to whether you can get him for 2 years is another matter but who knows.
Potentially there is also the option of De Belin into the front row rotation as he is actually a centre 3rd player already and Sele into lock as he is certainly showing some sparkling form and creative ability.
We are seeing more tight forwards knocking out 60 minutes + which is part of the adjustment with the reduced interchange rules and one thing that is really evident in our squad is their fitness and ability to knock out big minutes.
I don't see having a rookie on the bench as that big a problem as we can shut down his game time if necessary.
As I said to Brissy IMO it is the keeping of bench players at reasonable $$$ that may have been the area to look at if we really wanted to keep Packer.
A question for you
If we keep winning and we hold onto our current squad and we start winning again next year how will Kerr, Leilua, Lawrie, Host ever get a crack at 1st grade?
Also if they leave for greener pastures does that mean we start the cycle of buying short term players yet again and then set back the pathway for the current U/20's players coming through.
Once you get into this cycle it is incredibly hard to get out of it and at some point you have to bight the bullet.
IMO our current crop is actually good enough for us to bight the bullet and press on with our pathway investments.

 

[BrissyRedV]

If we keep winning and we hold onto our current squad and we start winning again next year how will Kerr, Leilua, Lawrie, Host ever get a crack at 1st grade?

Injuries and rep duties will provide opportunities for the young guys. At some stage they will get their chance and if we are winning their may be opportunity to rotate players if they are performing.

 

[duck]

LAM or Sims it doesn't matter as we are talking about replacing their 35 -40 minute game time for a few games not the entire season.

OK. But those 35-40 minutes from LAM and Sims have been very high quality. The result being we're sitting 3rd.
What do you suggest Mary tell them? "Sorry Leeson I know we've been winning and you've been an outstanding interchange for Packer, but I'm dropping you to Reggies because there's a kid there that wants a turn"

Host had a very small sniff at the start of this year and has been handled poorly IMO and Luc has had no sniff this year.

Host is ready. It's been decided Sele is readier. Luc has only just turned 21. I have no doubt all 3 will star for us in future.

Being named in the 21 means nothing if they don't get game time.

It lets that player know he's on the radar.

It's like the good looking girl at the bar you want to go out with but she only rates you as the 5th most promising bloke, you are only a thought and not the reality so eventually if you are smart you go somewhere else to better your chances.

Not if she is the one. Haven't you ever fought for a girl's attention?

Re Field he was part of the big pre season announcement and has had hardly any game time at all and even when he could have been given 15 -20 minutes he got 7 right at the end of a game when the intensity had completely died.
I am not suggesting put him in for a full game obviously that is not how you blood him but we have had opportunities to expose him better and we didn't take them

He's getting bits and pieces here and there. Still too small/inexperienced for longer stints.

Re Kerr people say he wasn't signed to play 1st grade so am I to understand we brought a 20 year old to play reggies?
We signed Kerr because he has potential and was the next big thing according to plenty in here and we just refuse to look at him yet he was a heralded signing. People keep using age as the criteria which is just simply wrong.

Not every signing is for immediate first grade employment. The club has future plans and he is part of it. Jeez you're an impatient fellow.

As I said in another post the people who were so accepting of losing and defended the club though thick and thin are now the very people who are not willing to accept any changes for the fear of a loss.

I guess I'm guilty, but only because we're, you know, winning?

The do nothing brigade excel at doing nothing and bag out others who try to have some vision for the club.

That's because the ''do nothing brigade'' are ecstatic at how the team is performing and don't understand the negativity.

 

[SBD82]

Potentially there is also the option of De Belin into the front row rotation as he is actually a centre 3rd player already

Please please please don't suggest this in a public forum.

What if McGregor is reading this and starts to think it would be a good idea?

JDB is in the form of his career, he is a middle, yes, but there are differences in the role of the props and the 13.

JDB is probably the form 13 of the comp right now. I wouldn't trade him for anyone, with the possible exception of taumololo.

 

[possm]

LAM or Sims it doesn't matter as we are talking about replacing their 35 -40 minute game time for a few games not the entire season.
Host had a very small sniff at the start of this year and has been handled poorly IMO and Luc has had no sniff this year.
Being named in the 21 means nothing if they don't get game time.
It's like the good looking girl at the bar you want to go out with but she only rates you as the 5th most promising bloke, you are only a thought and not the reality so eventually if you are smart you go somewhere else to better your chances.
Re Field he was part of the big pre season announcement and has had hardly any game time at all and even when he could have been given 15 -20 minutes he got 7 right at the end of a game when the intensity had completely died.
I am not suggesting put him in for a full game obviously that is not how you blood him but we have had opportunities to expose him better and we didn't take them
Re Kerr people say he wasn't signed to play 1st grade so am I to understand we brought a 20 year old to play reggies?
We signed Kerr because he has potential and was the next big thing according to plenty in here and we just refuse to look at him yet he was a heralded signing. People keep using age as the criteria which is just simply wrong.
As I said in another post the people who were so accepting of losing and defended the club though thick and thin are now the very people who are not willing to accept any changes for the fear of a loss.
The do nothing brigade excel at doing nothing and bag out others who try to have some vision for the club.

Millward should sit down with our head coach and sort this junior progression thing out. What a mess.

 

[possm]

Benny
Re: Props available Blair would be my pick as to whether you can get him for 2 years is another matter but who knows.
Potentially there is also the option of De Belin into the front row rotation as he is actually a centre 3rd player already and Sele into lock as he is certainly showing some sparkling form and creative ability.
We are seeing more tight forwards knocking out 60 minutes + which is part of the adjustment with the reduced interchange rules and one thing that is really evident in our squad is their fitness and ability to knock out big minutes.
I don't see having a rookie on the bench as that big a problem as we can shut down his game time if necessary.
As I said to Brissy IMO it is the keeping of bench players at reasonable $$$ that may have been the area to look at if we really wanted to keep Packer.
A question for you
If we keep winning and we hold onto our current squad and we start winning again next year how will Kerr, Leilua, Lawrie, Host ever get a crack at 1st grade?
Also if they leave for greener pastures does that mean we start the cycle of buying short term players yet again and then set back the pathway for the current U/20's players coming through.
Once you get into this cycle it is incredibly hard to get out of it and at some point you have to bight the bullet.
IMO our current crop is actually good enough for us to bight the bullet and press on with our pathway investments.

I think you are close to the mark. We have Ah Mau and Sims in our bench rotation off the bench. Problem is neither of these two players would make a fist of being our run on prop and their lies our dilemma. Packer was not the player we should have let go, if we wanted to let someone go to balance the cap it should have been both Sims and Ah Mau. Then bring Kerr and Lawrie onto the bench in the prop rotation and Sele and Host as the other two forwards on the bench leaving Leilua to fight for a spot on the bench.

 

[SBD82]

I don't think that you guys have thought through the idea of a 4 forward bench with the current 8 interchanges.

@RufusRex made a great post about this, which I have copied and pasted below for you guys.

4 props = 4 interchanges (2 to get the bench on, 2 to get the starters back on)
Host comes on for JDB (1 interchange), JDB comes on for Friz/Thommo (1 interchange), Friz/Thommo comes back on for host (1 interchange) ... That is 7 of our available 8 interchanges

The last one is the in-case of injury bloke or the hook you because your are playing shit bloke.

You can replace host with Sele or Lawrie in this scenario, and its a good way to bring them into the game for 20 minutes (or longer if injury dictates) and blood players.

If anyone can give me an example of how a 4 forward bench would fit into the 8 interchange algorithm and add value to the team I'm all ears.

 

[RedV Resurgence]

Packer will leave and ad sad as that is, the next gen get a chance. I'm not sure how many of you have seen these boys play. They are ready.

Sele has impressed, Host has been good when on the NRL bench. Lawrie is little Packer. And Kerr can be any thing.

Each of these guys need a taste of FG this year, it could be really valuable for the semis. Next year they will all be ready andi think be a stronger pack.

 

[duck]

So many gun young players in the comp and we sit and twiddle our thumbs wondering what to do with ours.

Millward should sit down with our head coach and sort this junior progression thing out. What a mess.

Old Timer and possm.

4 of our U20 team from last year have tasted first grade.

Which other club can boast this number?

 

[coast_dragons]

lol at junior progression wtf do you think they are doing right now with Illawarra.

They have shifted players into the team ie Robson and Garrick with Sele, Field, Host and Leilua all tasting first grade in the last 12 months.

Packer was off contract Sims and Ah Mau are not and Rusty got a massive offer and took it the club was never going to offer what the Tigers did simple as that.

Lawrie and Kerr are both barely out of the 20's and a whole year in the NSW Cup will be a massive benefit in their development.

The continued "Dragons never promote juniors" is a load of shit but its a cool story to push your agenda in the I hate Millward bandwagon.

 

[Crush]

Check out the illawarra vs bulldogs thread for an update on some of our future stars progression. I am happy to stick with the current nrl side just for now.....

 

[duck]

So many gun young players in the comp and we sit and twiddle our thumbs wondering what to do with ours.

Millward should sit down with our head coach and sort this junior progression thing out. What a mess.

Old Timer and possm.

4 of our U20 team from last year have tasted first grade.

Which other club can boast this number?

C'mon guys. You've had a day to research and respond.

What other clubs can equal our current record of "junior progression"?

Stop twiddling your thumbs and answer. I'm intrigued.

 

[Old Timer]

C'mon guys. You've had a day to research and respond.

What other clubs can equal our current record of "junior progression"?

Stop twiddling your thumbs and answer. I'm intrigued.

This year Luc hasn't played any so you have Sele, Field, Host.
Penrith have 3 playing 1st grade full time and all had debuted before 20 years of age plus no doubt a few more if you want to have a look through.
Do you really think that our development programme is better than theirs?
Without looking to closely I believe newcastle would also have far more having played 1st grade than us also.
No doubt you will want to say that Newcastle are losing plenty of games and that shows the drama with blooding youth will up until this year we were losing plenty of games also so their junior progression is further down the track then ours.

 

[Old Timer]

C'mon guys. You've had a day to research and respond.

What other clubs can equal our current record of "junior progression"?

Stop twiddling your thumbs and answer. I'm intrigued.

NQC
Hess, Gela-Mosby, Pongya
Not just getting a taste getting full matches so is their system worse than ours?

 

[duck]

This year Luc hasn't played any so you have Sele, Field, Host.

I said we have four U20 graduates with first grade experience. I am 100% correct.

Penrith have 3 playing 1st grade full time and all had debuted before 20 years of age plus no doubt a few more if you want to have a look through.

They have three total, only Cleary is playing full time first grade. That's three. Total. Do you just make stuff up?

Do you really think that our development programme is better than theirs?

I'm not arguing that it's better or worse. You're saying ours is a train wreck and I don't see that. We've currently blooded more U20 players than they have. FACT.

Without looking to closely I believe newcastle would also have far more having played 1st grade than us also.

Maybe. But with that possibility in mind do you believe Newcastle's junior development program is superior to all other clubs?

No doubt you will want to say that Newcastle are losing plenty of games and that shows the drama with blooding youth will up until this year we were losing plenty of games also so their junior progression is further down the track then ours.

Old Timer. The king of straw mans.

You seem to want Field and Kerr and Lawrie and Dufty and Herbert and god knows who else to have a crack at first grade before they're ready. The juniors are coming along fine. Our reggies is full of young guys getting a taste.

 

[ALSGI]

Good points by all regarding our future stars and the way Mary selects we won't see any more future stars in FG this year. Hard to argue with Mary though with us sitting in the top 4.
I just think there is a lack of vision in Nighty at FB, McCrone at 7 and we lack that xfactor, speed and unpredictability. Right side D and McCrone's kicking hasn't been addressed.
Nighty and McCrone aren't our future, nor is Dugan, Packer and Milne. I wouldn't drop any of them (except McCrone) but might shuffle, rest and rotate with an injection of juniors when the opportunity arises.Those saying Dufty and Field aren't ready, fair enough Mary and co agree with you. I've never played senior footy or coached RL, just a long time tragic fan with an opinion.
Still, we're sitting in 3rd, maybe 2nd tomorrow and it's hard to argue with what Mary's doing right now.
If we win tomorrow does Nighty go to FB and KFFL come in on the wing against Parra? That's exactly what will hapen regardless of whether we win or lose - it worked last time right?
Barring injuries, nothing will change.
Hope it's good enough to challenge in the finals, either way enjoying the ride this year. It's good to be talking about who should and be in the 17 while we're in the top half of the ladder.

 

[True_Believer]

Good points by all regarding our future stars and the way Mary selects we won't see any more future stars in FG this year. Hard to argue with Mary though with us sitting in the top 4.
I just think there is a lack of vision in Nighty at FB, McCrone at 7 and we lack that xfactor, speed and unpredictability. Right side D and McCrone's kicking hasn't been addressed.
Nighty and McCrone aren't our future, nor is Dugan, Packer and Milne. I wouldn't drop any of them (except McCrone) but might shuffle, rest and rotate with an injection of juniors when the opportunity arises.Those saying Dufty and Field aren't ready, fair enough Mary and co agree with you. I've never played senior footy or coached RL, just a long time tragic fan with an opinion.
Still, we're sitting in 3rd, maybe 2nd tomorrow and it's hard to argue with what Mary's doing right now.
If we win tomorrow does Nighty go to FB and KFFL come in on the wing against Parra? That's exactly what will hapen regardless of whether we win or lose - it worked last time right?
Barring injuries, nothing will change.
Hope it's good enough to challenge in the finals, either way enjoying the ride this year. It's good to be talking about who should and be in the 17 while we're in the top half of the ladder.

It's a tough one isn't it? I don't disagree that we lack that xfactor at the moment as well as speed. But as you say, how can you argue against Mary given our position and the way we have been playing for a majority of the year? The only real hiccup was the loss of Gaz (our dominant play maker) - and even then we were pretty competitive for a couple of those games.

I think the only thing with McCrone is that he does seem to compliment Gaz well. Potentially he does more off the ball than is noticeable. His kicking is definitely shite but he does have a few try assists this year so he does add some value in attack. Maybe the problem is the options we have available don't have that ability to organise off the ball? They may not talk enough or take enough control to allow Gaz to do his thing? As we know, it's not just about attacking ability - there are so many other factors to take into consideration when trying to find a halves combo that works well. These are the things we just aren't certain of and only the coaching team would be intimately aware of how each of them work with Gaz - the reggies are a great opportunity to build those skills - getting a peek every now and then in firsts.

I think the shuffle is a pretty good idea and I think (based on nothing but gut feel) that we may see some of this happen over the next few months. I guess it's a balancing act where you want your best players on the field at all times - you don't want to risk the chance of winning a premiership just to blood a bunch of youngsters.

The other aspect is that even if we brought young players into the team and we started to lose due to things such as defensive and attacking combinations not gelling, Mary will get the blame for not bringing them in earlier or bringing the wrong combinations in. Some people just have it in for him no matter what he does - it's a no win situation.