Replacing Packer...

[The Damo]

Simple
Our whole attack is about forward domination and that is required for far longer in a game than if you have rampant backs that can score from anywhere.
Our forwards never get a rest they have to be in the thick of it almost every play and are required to make the yardage because neither our kicking game or our backs can do that.
So Packer who has made major surgery and is required to lead by example in our style of play was always going to get busted.
All our starting forwards are showing signs of fatigue and injury exacerbated by our 1 dimensional attack. and it was always going to end up this way.
We needed plan B & C to give these blokes some respite but the results in the last few weeks show we have no plan B or C and plan A will not work now because we are playing with busted forwards.
Smart sides have great kicking options to make easy yardage for the big boys and we don't.
Packer maybe required shorter periods and 1 more interchange but we choose to have a back on the bench and give them 7-10 minutes at the end which IMO is just dumb and a waist of an interchange.

Ok so if what you say is true, that our forwards have to be 'in the thick of it' every play then Packer and Vaughan must be doing more work than other starting props? Packer averages 7.6 hit ups per game and 10.6 runs in 45 minutes. There's a few dozen forwards in the Comp doing more every game. Some exampleis
JWH - has done 100 more minutes, 40 more hit ups.
Jesse Bromwich has missed games and has played 130 minutes less but has only 4 less hit ups.
RCG has played 1 more minute and done 4 less hit ups for 50 more metres.
lillyman has played 25 mins less and made 54 more hit ups for 300 more metres.
Tolman has played 240 more minutes ( 3 full games) for 78 more hit ups and 170 more tackles.
seumanfagai has 90 less minutes but 20 more hit ups.
Bolton, 96 more minutes 67 more hit ups.
Paulo 130 more minutes 53 more hit ups.
Korbin sims 87 less minutes 10 more hit ups.
Daniel saifiti 15 less minutes, 27 more hit ups.

I just don't see any actual evidence that he's been asked to do more whether it's time, collisions, work rate, whatever, than other props. I looked across teams and there only two rep props in the list above. Every team wants their forwards dominating, there's plenty of improvement to be found in our game plans, no question, but saying that our 'power game' has burnt out our props just doesn't stand up.

 

[The Damo]

History will show we lost to top players Millward's way. But I imagine there could be a slight chance you are right about Packer's agent having inside knowledge. If I had to choose which argument and put my house on it, for sure I would bet it all on my version.

Just for a moment imagine you are right. So Millward had no such information and everyone but Packer's manager was unwise to this news. And with all of this, Packer and Millward both came out and said publically Packer wants to stay and the Club wants him to stay. If as you assert Packer new about this possible deal with the Tigers, the Packer lied to Millward, the Dragons Club and all of the Dragons fans.

No as far as I can see, it was just miss-management from Millward, he was played and now he looks the fool.
It's a mess.

I make no such argument about inside knowledge. All your imaginations after that aren't what I'm saying. My argument is that Packer thought his value would improve with playing well and getting selected for kiwis. That he'd have been an idiot not to think that and act accordingly.
If he was approached about a contract ( I don't know ) it makes sense to me that he'd say he'd prefer to negotiate after the rep period.
This also fits with us upgrading other forwards, seems plausible they approached him to start discussions but h preferred to wait. Also fits with the delay till after Dugan in that we'd know whether we could afford what he wanted then. These assumptions all fit the available evidence we have and are frankly more plausible than thinking Millward just decided to wait cos he's a fool. Not saying he's not - but this case provides no evidence of it.

 

[MilanDragon]

Ok so if what you say is true, that our forwards have to be 'in the thick of it' every play then Packer and Vaughan must be doing more work than other starting props? Packer averages 7.6 hit ups per game and 10.6 runs in 45 minutes. There's a few dozen forwards in the Comp doing more every game. Some exampleis
JWH - has done 100 more minutes, 40 more hit ups.
Jesse Bromwich has missed games and has played 130 minutes less but has only 4 less hit ups.
RCG has played 1 more minute and done 4 less hit ups for 50 more metres.
lillyman has played 25 mins less and made 54 more hit ups for 300 more metres.
Tolman has played 240 more minutes ( 3 full games) for 78 more hit ups and 170 more tackles.
seumanfagai has 90 less minutes but 20 more hit ups.
Bolton, 96 more minutes 67 more hit ups.
Paulo 130 more minutes 53 more hit ups.
Korbin sims 87 less minutes 10 more hit ups.
Daniel saifiti 15 less minutes, 27 more hit ups.

I just don't see any actual evidence that he's been asked to do more whether it's time, collisions, work rate, whatever, than other props. I looked across teams and there only two rep props in the list above. Every team wants their forwards dominating, there's plenty of improvement to be found in our game plans, no question, but saying that our 'power game' has burnt out our props just doesn't stand up.

Thank you! Saved me doing the research to make that exact point.

People get caugh up with the term power game' and assume our forwards are doing more.

The reality is Packer is a very good forward, but based on the stats amongst other things he isn't in my opinion worth the money the tigers offered. Unless he plays more minutes and those base stats essentially increase.

 

[Saint_JimmyG]

Possm mate, Packer was offered massive overs by the Tigers. Absolutely outrageous money. There was no way we could match that. It wasn't incompetence, we just got outbid, that's literally all it was. Not to mention Packer knows Cleary well and his best mate in Ben Matulino has joined the club.

You might argue that we should have signed him up earlier before other teams swooped, but i'm telling you, what players and their managers do is they let offers sit on the table for a while and explore their options in the meantime. I would imagine that the club put in an offer for Packer some time ago but his manager would have got in his ear to keep his options open until an offer like the Tigers' came along. Much like what Dugan did to us when we started negotiations in November last year.

There was nothing more we could do. Fact. Not a mess.

Except that players also sign contracts other than monetary reasons i.e. the chance of winning a premiership and/or the coach.

This is why Possm is 100% correct in saying the situation at Saints is a mess (although I would use much stronger language personally).

 

[MilanDragon]

Except that players also sign contracts other than monetary reasons i.e. the chance of winning a premiership and/or the coach.

This is why Possm is 100% correct in saying the situation at Saints is a mess (although I would use much stronger language personally).

So Packer is more likely to win a premiership at the tigers than dragons?

 

[Saint_JimmyG]

So Packer is more likely to win a premiership at the tigers than dragons?

"Also" and "other".

 

[MilanDragon]

"Also" and "other".

I'll give you the coach part.

But I'd say monetary was his primary reason.

 

[Gareth67]

Gareth
Millward is looking to save money he trying to get then cheap.
He tryiny to get another bargain buy .
But it the end we will have to pay market value.

Sammy , unfortunately the days of bargain buys are about to end , if not already so , the salary cap increase has seen to that .
I don't believe that anyone has a true idea of just what remains in our budget for next season , however regardless Millward will need to spend the dollars for whatever forward that the club has in mind .
We can only hope that we do have sufficient funds for to entice one that does possess true ability and toughness .

 

[2010]

As far as Packers replacemt is concerned I feel that we have missed the boat on any good forward that would be available.
Widdop had offers from other clubs but stayed. That's a plus for us.
Dugan and Packer both leaving. That's a Hugh loss for us.
Their loss will affect us next season. Surely MacIdiit would have discussed the roster for next season with Milward and should have moved mountains to sign Dugan.

 

[Gareth67]

2010 - we will certainly miss them both , they have done the Big Red V proud and I am sure that will both continue to do so to their last game of the season .

However their decisions have now been made and they shall be elsewhere next year , so the club must move on and look for suitable replacements ( although you can't replace the Duges ) only Packer .

As I mentioned in an earlier post , recruitment may need to look overseas to fill that role , but he needs to do that sooner than later .

 

[Old Timer]

The Damo & Milan
Whilst the other player stats you provided are interesting, I do not see they are particularly relevant in this discussion as other teams play a different style of football, have different interchange options and methodology, they have different starting points for their sets etc etc.
As I said in the beginning this is about Packer who had significant surgery in the off season and was put into our system referred to by our coach as "the power game" and Packer is expected to be able to sustain it for the season and in rounds 14 & 15 his HU numbers have taken a significant dive which I suspect is fatigue / injury and I will not be surprised to see his numbers fall further if we continue in the same vain and don't provide him with some recovery time.
Some stats averaged off the internet for Packer
TOG = 43m / game
Tackles = 27 / game
Hit Ups = 10.64 / game
Metres / Run = 9.34
In rounds 14 & 15 his hit ups were 2 & 5 respectively despite his tackle average and TOG remaining close to his season average in both games so something has happened.
The conspiracy people will say he has clocked off and I say that is BS but I maintain our type of footy is taking its toll on our players.
Out of interest here are the same stats for Vaughan
TOG = 45m / game
Tackles = 31 / game
Hit Ups = 15 / game
Metres / Run = 9.8
In rounds 14 & 15 his hit ups were 13 & 10 respectively so lower than his season average whilst both his tackles and TOG numbers for those rounds were significantly higher than season average.
The numbers for Packer & Vaughan indicate to me that when we have the ball they are slowing and not getting to the play as much as they were early in the season with Packer's decline significantly worse.
I would think with some rest they could well come back to early season form and averages.
I believe if we keep playing in the same vein and don't provide some rest for the big guys their numbers in attack will decline further and our attack will suffer significantly as will our results.
My contention has always been we need to get some younger legs blooded so they can play significant game time and lessen the load for our bigger guys to ensure that they can get through the season playing at a high intensity with no drop off in key numbers.
You can reference all the stats you like for other players but none of them are in our training regime or our playing structure so such comparisons are difficult and it is also possible that our style of training might also be having some negative effect on the energy reserves who knows?
To me it is obvious that any reduced output with ball in hand from Packer & Vaughan has seen a significant decline in our on field fortunes and results.

 

[MilanDragon]

The Damo & Milan
Whilst the other player stats you provided are interesting, I do not see they are particularly relevant in this discussion as other teams play a different style of football, have different interchange options and methodology, they have different starting points for their sets etc etc.
As I said in the beginning this is about Packer who had significant surgery in the off season and was put into our system referred to by our coach as "the power game" and Packer is expected to be able to sustain it for the season and in rounds 14 & 15 his HU numbers have taken a significant dive which I suspect is fatigue / injury and I will not be surprised to see his numbers fall further if we continue in the same vain and don't provide him with some recovery time.
Some stats averaged off the internet for Packer
TOG = 43m / game
Tackles = 27 / game
Hit Ups = 10.64 / game
Metres / Run = 9.34
In rounds 14 & 15 his hit ups were 2 & 5 respectively despite his tackle average and TOG remaining close to his season average in both games so something has happened.
The conspiracy people will say he has clocked off and I say that is BS but I maintain our type of footy is taking its toll on our players.
Out of interest here are the same stats for Vaughan
TOG = 45m / game
Tackles = 31 / game
Hit Ups = 15 / game
Metres / Run = 9.8
In rounds 14 & 15 his hit ups were 13 & 10 respectively so lower than his season average whilst both his tackles and TOG numbers for those rounds were significantly higher than season average.
The numbers for Packer & Vaughan indicate to me that when we have the ball they are slowing and not getting to the play as much as they were early in the season with Packer's decline significantly worse.
I would think with some rest they could well come back to early season form and averages.
I believe if we keep playing in the same vein and don't provide some rest for the big guys their numbers in attack will decline further and our attack will suffer significantly as will our results.
My contention has always been we need to get some younger legs blooded so they can play significant game time and lessen the load for our bigger guys to ensure that they can get through the season playing at a high intensity with no drop off in key numbers.
You can reference all the stats you like for other players but none of them are in our training regime or our playing structure so such comparisons are difficult and it is also possible that our style of training might also be having some negative effect on the energy reserves who knows?
To me it is obvious that any reduced output with ball in hand from Packer & Vaughan has seen a significant decline in our on field fortunes and results.

Well informed response, I like it!

Part of the reason the stats our last two games will be lower for both props is our possession has been lower I guess? I know we did a lot more defending at the start of both the last two games, I think Mary actually referenced that in his post-match conference.

I understand Packer is coming off injury but I guess part of it is we can't pay him to be our highest paid prop and one of the games highest if he is averaging significantly less minutes than others.

Rightfully or wrongfully our chosen strategy for the moment is 'power game' so we need players who can do that for the whole season too or be part of that, this is where it'll be interesting to see if Vaughan and JDB drop off or not.

 

[Dennis Papaioannou]

As far as Packers replacemt is concerned I feel that we have missed the boat on any good forward that would be available.
Widdop had offers from other clubs but stayed. That's a plus for us.
Dugan and Packer both leaving. That's a Hugh loss for us.
Their loss will affect us next season. Surely MacIdiit would have discussed the roster for next season with Milward and should have moved mountains to sign Dugan.

I don't know if it's possible but Gavet was huge today.
A really athletic front row who can also offload and defend.
I reckon offers much more than Packer.
Just don't know his status or availability.

 

[dragonssamy61]

I don't know if it's possible but Gavet was huge today.
A really athletic front row who can also offload and defend.
I reckon offers much more than Packer.
Just don't know his status or availability.

Dennis
He just extended till yhe end of 2019.
He 27 now.

 

[Dennis Papaioannou]

Dennis
He just extended till yhe end of 2019.
He 27 now.

Thanks for the update - shame

 

[dangerousdave]

Gotta admit I was gutted to be losing Rusty.
Now having seen Damo and Milan's statistical arguments, I'm more optimistic about finding an apt replacement.

 

[Old Timer]

Milan
I want to see us come up with a less taxing style of play.
Our tries are predominantly scored from within 20 - 30m of the opposition line.
The issue is that it takes constant effort from our forwards to get to that position because other than from penalties we do not make easy yardage.
That IMO comes from a distinct lack of speed in the backs and poor kicking options from in particular Mc Crone.
IMO the most taxing part for our forwards is taking the ball out of our own 20 and also the 2 or 3 hit ups in the opposition 20 in both cases the opposition put the body on the line in defence and it is bruising and tiring for our forwards.
Recently due to our forwards not getting back as quick as they were the wingers are taking more and more hit ups and TBH they prove ineffective and we are restricted in yardage gained.
We must get some speed in the backs and try to spread the ball to get some easy yards but alas our coach will not do that and the pressure reverts back to the forwards.
Interesting other teams seem to get quite easy yardage against us and our forwards are often turned around and fatigued having to get back and then they have to put their bodies on the line in close quarter defence.
IMO if it continues we will have even more busted forwards and we will spiral further down the ladder.
I'm sure our forwards long for the day when they can sit and watch the backs streaking away while they say "go you good thing" how our forwards in the old days must have loved Blacklock, Mundine & Co.

 

[1st & 10]

The only thing deep we're in.....is shit, for him losing 2 international players in 2 weeks and NFI whom to replace them with.

Well said Coffs (again)

Saint's management just keep making the same stuff ups. It is pure insanity. But what makes me angry is the unaccountability of the Fairy God Fathers

 

[1st & 10]

I would replace Packer with mmmmmmm Packer !!

What about his old cell mate?

 

[dragonssamy61]

Milan
I want to see us come up with a less taxing style of play.
Our tries are predominantly scored from within 20 - 30m of the opposition line.
The issue is that it takes constant effort from our forwards to get to that position because other than from penalties we do not make easy yardage.
That IMO comes from a distinct lack of speed in the backs and poor kicking options from in particular Mc Crone.
IMO the most taxing part for our forwards is taking the ball out of our own 20 and also the 2 or 3 hit ups in the opposition 20 in both cases the opposition put the body on the line in defence and it is bruising and tiring for our forwards.
Recently due to our forwards not getting back as quick as they were the wingers are taking more and more hit ups and TBH they prove ineffective and we are restricted in yardage gained.
We must get some speed in the backs and try to spread the ball to get some easy yards but alas our coach will not do that and the pressure reverts back to the forwards.
Interesting other teams seem to get quite easy yardage against us and our forwards are often turned around and fatigued having to get back and then they have to put their bodies on the line in close quarter defence.
IMO if it continues we will have even more busted forwards and we will spiral further down the ladder.
I'm sure our forwards long for the day when they can sit and watch the backs streaking away while they say "go you good thing" how our forwards in the old days must have loved Blacklock, Mundine & Co.

Ot
Have to agree with what your saying.
That's why if we are going to continue to play the so called power game.
We need a bench including 4 forward so we can rotate them more often.
Because at the moment our fourth interchange or number 17 are averaging only 12 minutes per game.