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Round 5 V Eels

Luke Bowden

First Grade
Messages
6,913
Trends are more reliable than anything else we have to go on. That’s why I use them, it’s also why sports betting agencies, data experts etc use them.

Best sports prediction expert in the world, Nate Silver, uses data trends.

It’s literally a science.

It is a science, the trick is to use the correct data. No information that has been inaccurately collected.

Nate Silver disregards a lot of data and concentrates on the important information.
 

franklin2323

Immortal
Messages
33,546
Well I guess the positive(hopefully) is that its better to have them now than at the pointy end of the year and we are still managing to win sooo if we can get healthy at the right time it will mean this little period was a positive for us.

Exactly we can use this time to plan for plan B, C and so on should we need it in finals.

If we win all our home games. We will have Finals wrapped up by round 20. That gives us plenty of time to build. I would love to see this spine and Blake fully fit come finals time.
 
Messages
21,867
It is a science, the trick is to use the correct data. No information that has been inaccurately collected.

Nate Silver disregards a lot of data and concentrates on the important information.

Sure, which is why it’s important when looking at trends to go back a reasonable amount of years.

10 years gives us a pretty clear picture of how important the first 5 rounds are, despite them being routinely dismissed.
 

franklin2323

Immortal
Messages
33,546
http://footyforecaster.com/NRL/Ladder/2014_Round_5

Using the above website shows a few teams currently sitting in the 8 have been in the 8 at round 5 in the last 5 years and missed the finals. Science would surely say it is more likely to happen again then not?

2013
GC in the 8 missed it.

2014
GC
Tigers
Dragons
Eels in the 8 all missed it

2015
Tigers
Newcastle
Roosters all in 8 missed it

2016
Souths
Parra in the 8 missed it

2017
Dragons
Canberra in the 8 missed it.

5 of the current top 8 have been in this same situation before and missed the finals. This year is far from over
 

MrBlack

Juniors
Messages
1,302
State of Origin always has a big say in the final make up of the 8.

We will have some challenging games ahead. Am I correct in thinking we play the warriors without state of origin players??
 

Fangs

Coach
Messages
11,223
State of Origin always has a big say in the final make up of the 8.

We will have some challenging games ahead. Am I correct in thinking we play the warriors without state of origin players??

Correct. Before game 3.

This might just be another false dawn for the warriors. The most disappointing team bar none in the competition.

But they really should be killing it every year. If their next 5 years is as good as it should be then they will need their own SOO to even the ledger. Otherwise they will wipe out the comp during the middle of every season.

Either that or their national team plays more test football during the middle of the season.
 

MrBlack

Juniors
Messages
1,302
Correct. Before game 3.

This might just be another false dawn for the warriors. The most disappointing team bar none in the competition.

But they really should be killing it every year. If their next 5 years is as good as it should be then they will need their own SOO to even the ledger. Otherwise they will wipe out the comp during the middle of every season.

Either that or their national team plays more test football during the middle of the season.

Yeah - the Warriors should clean up during State of Origin.

Most clubs now have adapted the Roosters approach to salary cap management (no pun intended here) and weighted the greater part of their cap into the top 13 or so players. Meaning a huge bulk of their squad on minimum wages. This means not much depth. Look at our reserve team .The last few years was full of ex first grade players, now its all development players.

State of Origin is going to have a huge say, testing every ones depth. Take Cleary, Maloney RCG and say Mansour out of our team and we field a very inexperienced team - now put them up against the Warriors team we have seen the last few weeks.
 
Messages
21,867
State of Origin always has a big say in the final make up of the 8.

We will have some challenging games ahead. Am I correct in thinking we play the warriors without state of origin players??

Which is why a good early start is so important, you can absorb some losses during the origin period.
 

franklin2323

Immortal
Messages
33,546
Yeah - the Warriors should clean up during State of Origin.

Most clubs now have adapted the Roosters approach to salary cap management (no pun intended here) and weighted the greater part of their cap into the top 13 or so players. Meaning a huge bulk of their squad on minimum wages. This means not much depth. Look at our reserve team .The last few years was full of ex first grade players, now its all development players.

State of Origin is going to have a huge say, testing every ones depth. Take Cleary, Maloney RCG and say Mansour out of our team and we field a very inexperienced team - now put them up against the Warriors team we have seen the last few weeks.

Dragons are strong from 6-13 outside of that is average. Hunt and most of their pack will play. We will have atleast 2 RCG and Maloney.

You are right only Tigers went Quantity over quality. The rest haven't got much outside of say top 20.
 
Messages
21,867
http://footyforecaster.com/NRL/Ladder/2014_Round_5

Using the above website shows a few teams currently sitting in the 8 have been in the 8 at round 5 in the last 5 years and missed the finals. Science would surely say it is more likely to happen again then not?

2013
GC in the 8 missed it.

2014
GC
Tigers
Dragons
Eels in the 8 all missed it

2015
Tigers
Newcastle
Roosters all in 8 missed it

2016
Souths
Parra in the 8 missed it

2017
Dragons
Canberra in the 8 missed it.

5 of the current top 8 have been in this same situation before and missed the finals. This year is far from over


Of course it will happen, who said otherwise?



One more time though, the stats show * most of * the top 8 after five rounds make the finals.

Not all, but most.

I mean the stats I put up already showed that. If 5.7 teams on average make the finals, that means 2.3 on average miss it.



Who the F puts your pants on in the morning?!
 
Messages
21,867
If you look at the second table, his number crunching confirms what I’ve been saying, 5 of the current top 8 have a very high chance of making the finals.
 

franklin2323

Immortal
Messages
33,546
If you look at the second table, his number crunching confirms what I’ve been saying, 5 of the current top 8 have a very high chance of making the finals.

Depends what stats were entered though like with anything like this

Warriors and Dragons both on 5 wins.
Dragons will have 3-4 players in SOO.
Compared to Warriors 0.
So how can Warriors finals % be less?
 

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