Telling points for the weekend

[Frenzy]

Well I've done my selections somewhere here now I wanna open a discussion on what we might thing are the crucial things for each team

IMO

Penrith vs Broncos - I think this will be closer than most think

Penrith - have the advantage of being on a roll and the home crowd. I do say I was worried by the elation shown by some of the youngsters after the last game. Some looked dead set liked they'd played thewir grand final that day

Broncos - Even being out of form, with wounded players everywhere and now some suspensions still have oodles more finals experience than the Panthers. They also have Wayne Bennett and Darren Lockyer.

Canterbury vs Warriors - Bulldogs to win. Too much to play for for

Bulldogs - Have the motivation, have the power, strength and speed but haven't gone into this with the momentum they'd of liked. Will have more chance if Anasta gets on the field.

Warriors - Obviously got introduced to the Angry Pills about a month back. Only have a half fit Jones though and makeshift 5/8s for the last month. Run the risk of "coming out to hard" and tiring

Raiders vs Storm - Raiders in strife IMO.

Storm - biggest advantage is having a core of the '99 team still in. Valuable experience. Fit and healthy halves. Coming in off good wins

Raiders - of 14 games against other finalists have only won 5. Struggle against better opposition and now have a problem with the halves. Drew out for the season. Croker out. McLinden knocked around and looking at a makeshift 5/8. In trouble.

Roosters vs Knights - Roosters "just" very close.

Roosters - Vulnerable with Fittler as a passenger. If he can get away with doing little and hiding in defence should still guide them to a win in this one if he satys on

Knights - learning to win without the great man is their biggest asset and confidence booster. If they can get away with this can go all the way but have to target Fittlers right shoulder in defence. Kennedy proving a good leader

Rip and tear people

 

[raidersfan]

In admit the Raiders chances at the start of the week looked grim but in fact they get better each day. Micheal Monaghan is now 80% chance of playing compared to a 50% chance of playing on Monday.
Also 11 of the Storm players haven't expirienced finals footy yet compared to 4 of the Raiders players having no expirience in finals footy.

 

[LeagueNut]

Warriors - Run the risk of "coming out to hard" and tiring

I find it interesting that people are still bringing this old chestnut up. All through the second half of the Qualifying Final last year vs Sharks the commentators were all waiting for us to fall over like it was guaranteed. Sure we have had some big losses this year (thanks very much Panthers, Cowboys & Knights @#&^@!) but we have also shown the ability to stick tight in close matches against good opposition (notably recent games against Broncos & Roosters).

There are some very good points in your analysis though. I do think that the Broncos and Storm will win this weekend but everyone has looked at me like I should be marched to the nearest padded cell!! 8-[

 

[Raider_69]

i think people are under-estimating the wounded raiders

Macca will be fine, no problems
Monnas is 80% chance - pretty good to me and he is a good player
Drew is out but the biggest thing we lose is his defencive laspes, monnas will take up his attacking role
Croker will be missed but as long as hindy is in not that much

the main reason canberra are going so well is that we dont have a team full of champions, but rather a champion team, they are all willing to put their body on the line for each other, their is also the great depth at the club which spurs players to play well know one bad game may see them head to Reggies for the year ala Graham...

Canberra have quite a few damaging players still in. Schif, macca, J.Monnas, Wiki, Woolford, Mogg and Lolesi all can cause some real damage

One thing i noticed last week when watching the storm is the amount of metres they conceded in the middle 3rd of the feild and as said before this is canberras main attacking section.....
I think Melbourne are a top team but i think the way we are playing at the moment we should be able to get over them........

Im also tipping Brisbane and Warriors......

 

[Frenzy]

In admit the Raiders chances at the start of the week looked grim but in fact they get better each day. Micheal Monaghan is now 80% chance of playing compared to a 50% chance of playing on Monday.
Also 11 of the Storm players haven't expirienced finals footy yet compared to 4 of the Raiders players having no expirience in finals footy.

Ahh yes but 5 Storm players have the NRL ring as opposed to 0 from the Raiders

I think experience wise the 2 are fairly close.

The loss of Croker is huge though IMO. He's a great player.

 

[Frenzy]

Warriors - Run the risk of "coming out to hard" and tiring

I find it interesting that people are still bringing this old chestnut up. All through the second half of the Qualifying Final last year vs Sharks the commentators were all waiting for us to fall over like it was guaranteed. Sure we have had some big losses this year (thanks very much Panthers, Cowboys & Knights @#&^@!) but we have also shown the ability to stick tight in close matches against good opposition (notably recent games against Broncos & Roosters).

Sure and you may be 100% correct. But comparing last years Sharks pack in that final to this years Bulldog pack is like apples and oranges.

Be clear please I don't offer this as an excuse but it is fact. The Warriors in last years final were never up against it fitness wise compared to the Sharks team. The commentators were wrong and were always going to be wrong. Beattie was out. Stevens came direct from hospital without telling anyone remember. At least 4 of the other forwards were needled up (yes all teams have that) but the point is that Sharks pack, the Sharks club in fact didn't have the required depth to cover for the inevitable injuries so they played wounded. Too wounded. You might get away with 80% fitness, you don't get away with 60% or less in semis and finals.

The Warriors hit the 'Dogs this weekend with all their forwards 100% fit (as far as I know) I emtioned they haven't come into the semis in the best form but IMO I think they have been doing it easy insofar as conserving themselves.

In other words, I think this game will be tougher and faster than the prelim final of 2002.

Anyway whatever happens I pick this one as my game of the weekend.

 

[LeagueNut]

Fair enough Frenzy - I'm picking this to be a ripper of a game as well. Can't bloody wait!!

By the way, please feel free to keep talking about the Sharks/Warriors final last year. It always makes me smile ... ;-)

 

[Frenzy]

Fair enough Frenzy - I'm picking this to be a ripper of a game as well. Can't bloody wait!!

By the way, please feel free to keep talking about the Sharks/Warriors final last year. It always makes me smile ... ;-)

It was a good game. I have no problem talking about it.

 

[skeepe]

Raiders - of 14 games against other finalists have only won 5.

I'd like to take you to task on this comment. We've only lost 8 games all year, so how we managed to lose 9 to the current finalists I'll never know.
You are right though in that we've only won 5 out of 12 against the other finalists, particularly worrying is the 2 losses against Melbourne but I'm confident we can overcome that.

My tips:
Raiders
Warriors
Knights
Panthers

Giving the Raiders and Panthers the week off, Broncos and Storm knocked out with week 2 games being:

Warriors vs Roosters
Knights vs Bulldogs

 

[hrundi99]

Ahh yes but 5 Storm players have the NRL ring as opposed to 0 from the Raiders.

Wiki and Croker were both part of the 94 Premiership team. So that counts for one at present.

 

[Frenzy]

Raiders - of 14 games against other finalists have only won 5.

I'd like to take you to task on this comment. We've only lost 8 games all year, so how we managed to lose 9 to the current finalists I'll never know.
You are right though in that we've only won 5 out of 12 against the other finalists, particularly worrying is the 2 losses against Melbourne but I'm confident we can overcome that.

My tips:
Raiders
Warriors
Knights
Panthers

Giving the Raiders and Panthers the week off, Broncos and Storm knocked out with week 2 games being:

Warriors vs Roosters
Knights vs Bulldogs

That's a good pick up, I picked it up later when I posted the same thread at the Sharks forum but didn't bother changing it here as I knew someone would cotton onto the error

5 from 12 is still only 41% of games against top company and if they don't go all the way this year, who's to say they won't, I'm sure it'll be something Elliott will wanna be working on in 2004.

Wiki and Croker were both part of the 94 Premiership team. So that counts for one at present.

I stand corrected on Wiki, I thought originally 94 was the year he sat out. Croker won't be playing this year so I didn't consider him

Thanks for your replies

 

[hrundi99]

The results from the Raiders losing games:

Rd 10 vs Panthers (Canberra) 18-26 (8 pts)
Rd 14 vs Broncos (Canberra) 20-24 (4 pts)
Rd 15 vs Warriors (Auckland) 18-26 (8 pts)
Rd 21 vs Roosters (Sydney) 16-20 (4 pts)
Rd 23 vs Cowboys (Canberra) 28-34 (6 pts)
Rd 26 vs Roosters (Canberra) 16-23 (7 pts)

Average losing points difference: 6.16

So obviously, we were very much in all of those games.

But more disturbingly:

Rd 9 vs Storm (Melbourne) 10-30 (20 pts)
Rd 17 vs Storm (Canberra) 8-18 (10 pts)

Average losing points difference: 15

Time to upset the average...

 

[salivor]

Just on the original post. I think the Broncos biggest advantage is our experience. We are up to our ears in Origin experience and have quite a few who have experienced international football. As far as big game experience goes we have an abundance while the Panthers have very little.
When you put that into the current situation where the Broncos aren't expected to win and the Panthers are coming in with a big home crowd, the minor premiership and the favourites tag. Thats a hell of alot for Penrith to play for.

I just have a gut feeling that Brisbane could pull this one out of the bag. Its just like the bastards to scrap together for a couple of good performances and probably set up for another dissapointing final 4 finish.

 

[legend]

Frenzy, you are using flawed logic with your stats.

Melbourne lost to:
Bulldogs x 2
Broncos x 2
Roosters
Warriors
Knights

Roosters lost to:
Panthers
Bulldogs x 2
Broncos
Warriors

Bulldogs lost to:
Raiders x 2
Broncos
Knights
Panthers

Warriors lost to:
Knights x 2
Bulldogs
Raiders
Panthers

Panthers lost to:
Storm
Roosters
Broncos
Raiders

 

[Frenzy]

Frenzy, you are using flawed logic with your stats.

Melbourne lost to:
Bulldogs x 2
Broncos x 2
Roosters
Warriors
Knights

Roosters lost to:
Panthers
Bulldogs x 2
Broncos
Warriors

Bulldogs lost to:
Raiders x 2
Broncos
Knights
Panthers

Warriors lost to:
Knights x 2
Bulldogs
Raiders
Panthers

Panthers lost to:
Storm
Roosters
Broncos
Raiders

huh? I can't make sense of what you are trying to say. Also, all I was saying is that The Raiders have only won 41% of their games against other top 8 teams. No use of any logic there, just a statement of fact.

Can you explain please?

 

[hrundi99]

huh? I can't make sense of what you are trying to say. Also, all I was saying is that The Raiders have only won 41% of their games against other top 8 teams. No use of any logic there, just a statement of fact.

Can you explain please?

I guess the logical thing to do would be to compare that 41% against the same stat for the other Top 8 teams.

Who's not busy?

:?:

 

[Simo]

Frenzy He is saying that yes Canberra lost to alot of top 8 sides but so did every other team in the top 8. Look at the results he posted, it was such an even comp that ALL teams were losing to different sides the same as Canberra did.

 

[Frenzy]

Oki doki - you asked for it


Bulldogs - 53% - 13 games
Roosters - 58% - 12 games
Panthers - 53% - 13 games
Broncos - 50% - 12 games
Storm - 50% - 12 games
Raiders - 41% - 12 games
Warriors - 41% - 12 games
Knights - 41% - 12 games

Bulldogs - 53% - 13 games

R2 Warriors 20 (3-4-0) 24 (5-2-0)
R5 Newcastle 6 (1-1-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R7 Canberra 22 (4-3-0) 26 (5-3-0)
R8 Warriors 18 (3-3-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R9 Easts 32 (5-6-0) 26 (4-5-0)
R11 Brisbane 0 (0-0-0) 24 (4-4-0)
R13 Easts 28 (5-4-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R15 Melbourne 26 (4-5-0) 12 (1-4-0)
R16 Penrith 26 (4-5-0) 28 (5-4-0)
R17 Newcastle 48 (8-8-0) 14 (2-3-0)
R18 Brisbane 40 (7-6-0) 4 (1-0-0)
R22 Melbourne 50 (8-9-0) 4 (1-0-0)
R25 Canberra 16 (2-4-0) 21 (4-2-1)

Broncos - 50% - 12 games

R1 Penrith 24 (4-4-0) 20 (4-2-0)
R5 Warriors 12 (2-2-0) 32 (6-4-0)
R6 Easts 20 (3-4-0) 27 (4-5-1)
R10 Melbourne 36 (6-6-0) 16 (3-2-0)
R11 Canterbury 24 (4-4-0) 0 (0-0-0)
R12 Newcastle 22 (4-3-0) 32 (5-6-0)
R14 Canberra 24 (4-4-0) 20 (4-2-0)
R16 Easts 10 (2-1-0) 8 (1-2-0)
R18 Canterbury 4 (1-0-0) 40 (7-6-0)
R19 Melbourne 26 (5-3-0) 22 (4-3-0)
R22 Penrith 6 (1-1-0) 13 (2-2-1)
R24 Warriors 14 (2-3-0) 22 (4-3-0)

Roosters - 58% - 12 games

R2 Newcastle 14 (2-3-0) 10 (1-3-0)
R3 Penrith 22 (4-3-0) 23 (4-3-1)
R6 Brisbane 27 (4-5-1) 20 (3-4-0)
R9 Canterbury 26 (4-5-0) 32 (5-6-0)
R10 Newcastle 36 (6-6-0) 14 (2-3-0)
R12 Melbourne 27 (4-5-1) 20 (3-4-0)
R13 Canterbury 18 (3-3-0) 28 (5-4-0)
R16 Brisbane 8 (1-2-0) 10 (2-1-0)
R20 Penrith 38 (6-7-0) 24 (4-4-0)
R21 Canberra 20 (3-4-0) 16 (3-2-0)
R25 Warriors 24 (5-2-0) 26 (4-5-0)
R26 Canberra 23 (4-3-1) 16 (3-2-0)

Knights - 41% - 12 games

R1 Warriors 36 (6-6-0) 26 (5-3-0)
R2 Easts 10 (1-3-0) 14 (2-3-0)
R4 Melbourne 44 (8-6-0) 28 (5-4-0)
R5 Canterbury 12 (2-2-0) 6 (1-1-0)
R8 Melbourne 6 (1-1-0) 46 (8-7-0)
R10 Easts 14 (2-3-0) 36 (6-6-0)
R12 Brisbane 32 (5-6-0) 22 (4-3-0)
R15 Penrith 6 (1-1-0) 34 (7-3-0)
R17 Canterbury 14 (2-3-0) 48 (8-8-0)
R19 Penrith 16 (3-2-0) 29 (6-2-1)
R23 Warriors 36 (6-6-0) 20 (4-2-0)
R24 Canberra 16 (3-2-0) 24 (4-4-0)


Warriors - 41% - 12 games

R1 Newcastle 26 (5-3-0) 36 (6-6-0)
R2 Canterbury 24 (5-2-0) 20 (3-4-0)
R5 Brisbane 32 (6-4-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R7 Penrith 14 (3-1-0) 28 (5-4-0)
R8 Canterbury 12 (2-2-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R11 Canberra 10 (2-1-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R12 Penrith 12 (2-2-0) 34 (6-5-0)
R15 Canberra 26 (5-3-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R21 Melbourne 12 (2-2-0) 14 (2-3-0)
R23 Newcastle 20 (4-2-0) 36 (6-6-0)
R24 Brisbane 22 (4-3-0) 14 (2-3-0)
R25 Easts 26 (4-5-0) 24 (5-2-0)

Storm - 50% - 12 games

R2 Penrith 42 (8-5-0) 16 (3-2-0)
R4 Newcastle 28 (5-4-0) 44 (8-6-0)
R8 Newcastle 46 (8-7-0) 6 (1-1-0)
R9 Canberra 30 (4-7-0) 10 (2-1-0)
R10 Brisbane 16 (3-2-0) 36 (6-6-0)
R12 Easts 20 (3-4-0) 27 (4-5-1)
R14 Penrith 32 (5-6-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R15 Canterbury 12 (1-4-0) 26 (4-5-0)
R17 Canberra 18 (3-3-0) 8 (2-0-0)
R19 Brisbane 22 (4-3-0) 26 (5-3-0)
R21 Warriors 14 (2-3-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R22 Canterbury 4 (1-0-0) 50 (8-9-0)

Panthers - 53% - 13 games

R1 Brisbane 20 (4-2-0) 24 (4-4-0)
R2 Melbourne 16 (3-2-0) 42 (8-5-0)
R3 Easts 23 (4-3-1) 22 (4-3-0)
R4 Canberra 28 (5-4-0) 40 (7-6-0)
R7 Warriors 28 (5-4-0) 14 (3-1-0)
R10 Canberra 26 (4-5-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R12 Warriors 34 (6-5-0) 12 (2-2-0)
R14 Melbourne 12 (2-2-0) 32 (5-6-0)
R15 Newcastle 34 (7-3-0) 6 (1-1-0)
R16 Canterbury 28 (5-4-0) 26 (4-5-0)
R19 Newcastle 29 (6-2-1) 16 (3-2-0)
R20 Easts 24 (4-4-0) 38 (6-7-0)
R22 Brisbane 13 (2-2-1) 6 (1-1-0)

Raiders - 41% - 12 games

R4 Penrith 40 (7-6-0) 28 (5-4-0)
R7 Canterbury 26 (5-3-0) 22 (4-3-0)
R9 Melbourne 10 (2-1-0) 30 (4-7-0)
R10 Penrith 18 (3-3-0) 26 (4-5-0)
R11 Warriors 18 (3-3-0) 10 (2-1-0)
R14 Brisbane 20 (4-2-0) 24 (4-4-0)
R15 Warriors 18 (3-3-0) 26 (5-3-0)
R17 Melbourne 8 (2-0-0) 18 (3-3-0)
R21 Easts 16 (3-2-0) 20 (3-4-0)
R24 Newcastle 24 (4-4-0) 16 (3-2-0)
R25 Canterbury 21 (4-2-1) 16 (2-4-0)
R26 Easts 16 (3-2-0) 23 (4-3-1)

 

[legend]

Do you have a job? :lol:

 

[hrundi99]

Brisbane - 12 games - 6 wins 50%
Bulldogs - 13 games - 7 wins 54%
Canberra - 12 games - 5 wins 42%
Knights - 12 games - 5 wins 42%
Roosters - 12 games - 7 wins 58%
Warriors - 12 games - 5 wins 42%
Storm - 12 games - 6 wins 50%
Panthers - 13 games - 7 wins 54%

Not a great deal of difference between any of the teams.