Tension on the peninsula

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by Spanner in the works, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. Spanner in the works

    Spanner in the works Bench

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    I have my doubts that anyone will be able to do much with the North Koreans now. They are too far along - and certainly will be once they miniaturise a warhead - in their ability to respond.

    Between the ICBMs, IRBMs, MRBMs, Scuds and ballistic missile submarines, what they've effectively done is create a comprehensive second and third strike capability.

    Take the missile launched yesterday. It wasn't launched from a fixed position like a silo, it was launched from a truck. That makes it 1) mobile and 2) very easy to hide. The North Koreans have plenty available - at least enough to create doubt - and we saw a bunch of these TELs paraded some months ago with a range of missiles on them, including yesterdays. Their success rate for missile tests is also remarkably high from independent estimates - somewhere around 65 to 75 per cent. That creates even more doubt.

    The other thing going for the North Koreans is the volume of ordnance pointed at Seoul. They have enough to destroy that city in short order, killing millions of people at the same time, and to make military action appear questionable.

    Now I know taking military action against them seems to be a popular and smart thing to do, but you better hope to hell you have every submarine, launcher, artillery piece, and bomber found and targeted, because if you don't a lot of people are going to die.

    Instead, I think an Asian - and maybe even global - arms race akin to the build up to World War 2/the Cold War/etc is back on the cards. SIPRI actually shows that global spending on weapons went up 0.4 per cent over the previous 12 months, and I think that will keep increasing over the next decade.
     
  2. DC_fan

    DC_fan First Grade

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    Because no country can be certain that the US will come their aid in times of need, I suggest that arms race will be global, and that includes Australia.

    The difference between the Cold War and today, is back then the Soviet Union was not under the control of raving lunatic like North Korea is today
     
  3. t-ba

    t-ba Coach

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    China should have pulled harder on the leash when it had more control.

    But what's done is done and now they're as much in the firing line as SK and Japan are. I'm pretty sure The North Koreans could level large sections of Shenyang and Dalian without breaking a sweat.
     
  4. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Probably the last thing they do but yes damage done.
     
  5. alien

    alien Referee

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    Well it should be amended! Japan is an ally now, and I want our allies in Asia to be strong militarily! Screw China and North Korea!
     
  6. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Japan has been an American ally since the end of world war 2. It was in fact the United States that forced Japan to adapt that constitution.
     
  7. alien

    alien Referee

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    If there is a war, the communications have to be taken out. It's one of the first things that must be taken out. Some civilians would die - there would be no way around that. Even more civilians will die if nothing is done and North Korea get more nukes. They could get enough to completely wipe out Japan and South Korea. They'll be able to reach Australia soon too. North Korea really should have been dealt with years ago. Hopefully President Trump deals with them before the problem gets even bigger than it already is!
     
  8. alien

    alien Referee

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    Yes I know, but things have changed.
     
  9. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Why do you believe it is more desirable for other nations to have nuclear weapons ?
     
  10. The Charlatan

    The Charlatan First Grade

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    Oh f**k off mate. Trump isn't going to do anything that others already haven't done. Both sides of US politics have faltered for decades with these lunatics. Bush had no problem turning the middle east into a clusterf**k but wouldn't touch North Korea.

    The North Korean people are suffering too. They've endured famines, energy issues and severe government control. To consider them as the enemy and expendable is horrific. A lot of the blame lays at China's feet as NK can now wave their nukes around as an indirect threat to China as well as the West.
     
  11. BuffaloRules

    BuffaloRules Coach

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    Can't agree sorry..,

    NK won't be allowed to develop a nuclear ICBM capability that can deliver a nuclear payload anywhere ...

    If they get a sniff of this then it won't just be the U.S. putting the hurt on them..

    Yes, the blowback against Seoul and maybe even Tokyo and Guam with non nuclear missiles will be considerable, but what's the alternative? LA, San Fran, Sydney and every other city in the Asia Pacific at risk of being nuked by this loony tunes?
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2017
  12. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    It seems to me there are three options

    1: The status quo remains as is NK a rogue state further developing an arsenal of greater and greater capability whilst the west postures.

    2: War, millions of civilians likely die.

    3: The west accept NK will be ( is ) Nuke capable and engage with the regime with the idea of bringing a nuclear armed NK into the international community.

    For mine option three is the most palatable of the the three shit sandwiches on offer.
     
  13. BuffaloRules

    BuffaloRules Coach

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    Can you elaborate on the difference between 1 and 3?

    Do they just stop with the arms build up once they achieve entrance to the "international community"?
     
  14. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    With engagement comes some form of influence, and no I'm quite sure they would not. However if the regime its self felt more secure in their international standing, there would be less perceived need.
     
  15. BuffaloRules

    BuffaloRules Coach

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    What will this engagement look like?

    Trade, diplomatic relations?

    Is this what NK are really trying to achieve?

    The regime will only feel more secure the more they ( and their unfortunate population) is left alone and free of outside influence ..
     
  16. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    I don't know what the regime are trying to achieve, my best guess would be retaining any and all power and position they currently have.
     
  17. BuffaloRules

    BuffaloRules Coach

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    And the engagement you want the west to offer to them?
     
  18. alien

    alien Referee

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    Well they have nukes and they now have ICBM capability.
     
  19. alien

    alien Referee

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  20. alien

    alien Referee

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