The price of Climate Change: 56 billion plus the rest

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by I Bleed Maroon, Jun 26, 2017.

  1. millersnose

    millersnose Post Whore

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    thats one way of looking at it
    the other is that peer review is a journalistic process not a scientific one and thus is no guarantee of scientific veracity

    i have my doubts about 99 per cent of papers being 'correct'
    many of them conclude with error margins and caveats
    a good many papers are also replies and challenges to other papers where both points of view cannot be 'correct' and that is even supposing one of them is 'correct'


    you boys need to stop believing everything you read on thinkprogress.com and the daily kos
     
    Xfactor1979 likes this.
  2. TheVelourFog

    TheVelourFog Bench

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    i don't even know what those are
     
  3. millersnose

    millersnose Post Whore

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    Steve McIntyre the stats expert who runs climate audit comments on peer review in his latest post on a new paleo paper
    https://climateaudit.org/2017/07/11/pages2017-new-cherry-pie/#more-23273

    Julian, thanks for commenting.

    Because I wrote first about North American tree ring proxies, please do not assume that this is the only issue that I noticed. There are many other issues, but each one takes time to write up.

    As to the issue of choosing series ex post, this has been a longstanding concern, originating with my first encounter with Jacoby and D’Arrigo, discussed in one of the earliest Climate Audit posts in Feb 2005 here https://climateaudit.org/2005/02/06/jacoby-1-a-few-good-series/. Jacoby and D’Arrigo had collected data from 36 northern sites, from which they selected the 10 “most temperature sensitive”. They purported to test for statistical significance but did not test the effect of selecting 10 of 36 series.

    Jacoby and D’Arrigo archived data for the 10 series that they used, but refused to provide me with data for the other 26 series when I requested it.

    In 2004, Climatic Change had asked me to review a submission by Mann. In my capacity as a reviewer, I asked for the data which Mann had refused to provide me as a critic. Schneider said that no reviewer had ever asked for data in 28 years of running the journal. I was unimpressed with this precedent and re-iterated my request. Schneider said that he’d have to consult with his editorial board to establish a policy; I said fine. Ulitmately they agreed that authors would have to provide data. Mann continued to refuse and abandoned the article.

    Under the new policy, I requested data for the other 26 series for JAcoby and D’Arrigo, which had been published in Climatic Change. Schneider made a halfhearted effort to get data from Jacoby, who sent the remarkable refusal letter replicated in the CA post linked above.

    From a statistical perspective, you’re doing exactly the same thing as Jacoby and D’Arrigo in your tree ring data – perhaps even worse. If you’re screening series, you need to keep track of how many series you tested and rejected. Unfortunately, with JAcoby and D’Arrigo, who are important contributors to your project, we do not know how many series were thrown out because they didn’t have the “Jacoby signal”.

    If you use biased statistical methods, your results become untrustworthy. It seems quite possible to me that the modern warm period is somewhat warmer than the medieval warm period, but you cannot demonstrate this with ex post screening.
     
  4. TheVelourFog

    TheVelourFog Bench

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    keep tilting at windmills millers
     
  5. millersnose

    millersnose Post Whore

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    You seem to want to disagree with something but seem too stoopid to form an argument
     
  6. TheVelourFog

    TheVelourFog Bench

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    haha

    I disagree with your crusade
     
  7. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Global temps 3rd hottest June n record after 2015 and 2016


    Meanwhile here I have once again escaped the ravages of global warming with the mean max well within normal and cooler than some years n the 20's 30's 40's 50's 60's 70's 80's and 90's

    The mean minimum is bang on the average for the 100 year data, enjoy your frying and impending disasters.
     
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  8. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    It's good to see that Maryboring has become the proverbial canary in a coalmine Sures.

    Very reassuring.
     
  9. Mr Spock!

    Mr Spock! First Grade

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    The Barrier Reef looks great from there too.

    Ask Pauline....
     
  10. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    I know it's amazing , m very lucky.
     
  11. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Just for you bandy I tried to check your area, u fortunately there are no long term records around for any towns anywhere near you

    Closet I could find was Tenterfield


    056032_38_06_1374198804000466962.png


    Mean mean for June


    If it gets unbearable in Lismore for you Tenterfields an option.
     
  12. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    Have you been to Tenterfield?
     
  13. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Canberra's having its coldest start to winter in 33 years, and meteorologists say it's averaging minus 2.1 degrees overnight - well below the long-term average hovering at zero.

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    An engineer removes ice from a Qantas aircraft at Canberra airport in sub-zero temperatures. Photo: Karleen Minney
    A run of dry weather explains the cold. In 2016, Canberra's gauges recorded about 197mm of winter rain to mid July, more than the 70mm average. This year, only 12mm has fallen, a 'whopping change' in the words of Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke.


    It's the driest start to winter for the ACT in nearly 40 years. Without cloud cover, the city's nights have been cooler than usual, and its days have been warmer.


    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act...as-airlines-deice-planes-20170721-gxfokv.html


    What's that it's cold because it's dry, I'm shocked I thought the CO2 blanket would have kept some warmth in.
     
  14. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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  15. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    It's pretty much all they've got going on there, and he left and died of aids.

    I'm not saying Tenterfield gives you aids, but.............
     
  16. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    It was probably all that working with leather
     
  17. The Charlatan

    The Charlatan First Grade

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    I broke the dam...
     
  18. thorson1987

    thorson1987 Coach

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    It's not bad, for an overnight stop over.
     
  19. The Charlatan

    The Charlatan First Grade

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    My grandmother lives there. There's not much going on but it's a nice town and a great place to live if you literally want to get away from everything.

    They make some bloody awesome meat pies there too.
     
  20. thorson1987

    thorson1987 Coach

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    Had Chinese from the one across from Barnaby Joyces offices. Was pretty good.
     

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