The Road to the Finals

[vvvrulz]

Right so we're nearly at the halfway point of the season sitting at 5 wins out of 11 games.
Which looks pretty average given that we are sitting 12th on the ladder, but it really might not be as bad as it looks.

Typically to make the top 8 you can get through with 12 wins out of 24 (win half your games).
We have to win 7 of the next 13 to get there.
Win this week and we'll be 6 from 12 and on track.

You can usually make a top four if you win 16 out of the 24, that gets pretty hard.
We have to win 11 of the next 13 for that. Not impossible though.

Our run is as follows:

Knights (h)
Bunnies (a)
Broncos (h)
Panthers (h)
Eels (h)
Broncos (a)
Manly (h)
Canberra (a)
Sharks (h)
Knights (a)
Roosters (h)
Titans (h)
Panthers (a)

Quite a lot of 'soft' games in that list as well as lots of home games.
We should make the eight pretty easily if we keep playing the way we have been.

Thoughts?

 

[RHYTHM AND STEALTH]

bit early bro

 

[JoeD]

All but 4 are "should win" imo

Knights (h) should win
Bunnies (a)
Broncos (h) should win
Panthers (h) should win
Eels (h) should win
Broncos (a)
Manly (h)
Canberra (a) should win
Sharks (h) should win
Knights (a) should win
Roosters (h)
Titans (h) should win
Panthers (a) should win

That would leave us prob 6th. Not bad given the start, new coach etc

 

[vvvrulz]

lol was looking at the next few weeks only initially, but got me thinking about the finals.
I think its worth looking at the big picture now that we appear to have settled into a nice rhythm.

 

[RHYTHM AND STEALTH]

souths at perth is winnable

 

[Benek]

All but 4 are "should win" imo

Knights (h) should win
Bunnies (a)
Broncos (h) should win
Panthers (h) should win
Eels (h) should win
Broncos (a)
Manly (h)
Canberra (a) should win
Sharks (h) should win
Knights (a) should win
Roosters (h)
Titans (h) should win
Panthers (a) should win

That would leave us prob 6th. Not bad given the start, new coach etc

Agree completely. I'll be disappointed if they let any of those should win games get away. Especially given we are finally back at Mt Smart with a big run of home games to finish off the season.

 

[jamaman]

Storm, Tigers, Cowboys, Titans will drop out.. will help the Warriors

 

[sup42]

Winning the next four games in a row would help simplify things for the Warriors.

I would like that target to be their make up lost ground period ( It Will actually be strung out over six weeks because of the Byes ).

So......win two....rest for a week....win two more....rest for a week.

Nicely split up period for the Warriors if they can come back from Bye rounds fresh ( historically a problem....we overcame that with the Rep round this year....had a win after a break ).

If you Look at the Table by number of Wins we could go deep into the four with a seven game streak like this time last year.

Current standings with number of Wins for comparison :

Dogs 8
Manly 7
Panthers 6
Eels 6
Storm 6
Roosters 6
Rabbits 6
Broncos 6
........................................
Wests 6
Titans 5
Cowboys 5
Warriors 5
Dragons 4
Raiders 4

The Sharks and Knights are on 2 wins a piece.

The Table is wide open for the Warriors if they find their form and get on with it.....They need to make the next Four games an unbeatable phase, flick the kill switch..... come back from the second bye and win two more....a six game winning streak from here would see them in the top four.

 

[tangalife]

We'll make it easy peasy.

We look confident, for the first time since Cleary, the attacking structures are there, our halves are showing up... If we ship in at position 6, we'll be the best in the bottom four, in which case I feel sorry for the team that finishes 3rd (unless its the Dogs, who look like a hard team for us to beat this year).

 

[Izz]

We'll make it easy peasy.

We look confident, for the first time since Cleary, the attacking structures are there, our halves are showing up... If we ship in at position 6, we'll be the best in the bottom four, in which case I feel sorry for the team that finishes 3rd (unless its the Dogs, who look like a hard team for us to beat this year).

If we finish 6th we get a home game first up against whoever finishes 7th, then, if we win, an away game against whoever loses out of the 2 v 3 game.

 

[Dogs Of War]

All but 4 are "should win" imo

Knights (h) should win
Bunnies (a)
Broncos (h) should win
Panthers (h) should win
Eels (h) should win
Broncos (a)
Manly (h)
Canberra (a) should win
Sharks (h) should win
Knights (a) should win
Roosters (h)
Titans (h) should win
Panthers (a) should win

That would leave us prob 6th. Not bad given the start, new coach etc

It's always hard to project forward because you never know what teams find form, what injuries you team has etc.

Games like the sharks and knights which look easy now, may be a totally different prospect later in the season. Sharks should have all there injured players back, knights won't stay down too long with the talent they have.

 

[Blair]

All but 4 are "should win" imo

Knights (h) should win...

Now I've got bad memories of watching us at home and charging out of the gates for an early 18-0 lead, before losing to the Knights.

It was the turning point for the worse that year.

 

[sup42]

It's always hard to project forward because you never know what teams find form, what injuries you team has etc.

Games like the sharks and knights which look easy now, may be a totally different prospect later in the season. Sharks should have all there injured players back, knights won't stay down too long with the talent they have.

The funny thing with this club that makes it a bit different....is that we are used to writing off the seasons starts....they are so consistently poor.

It's always catch up for us, and starts now , the Warriors finals appearances apart from two years out of 19 follow this pattern.

So if you are going to get excited as a Warriors fan, projecting where we will go from here is probably the only period of optimism. Getting ahead of ourselves is probably the only thing that keeps a lot fans sticking around.

The Dogs are on a completely different emotional curve....teams going top guns....confidence is there.....the luxury of patience and rational thinking is the domain of consistent clubs.

Oh and Billion dollar Third party stacked Forward packs and stuff :sarcasm:

It looks like we are trying to catch up with the Dogs / Manly / Roosters / Rabbitohs in having stacked rosters on low salary cap registered contracts with top ups, as Raelene Castle said , the club has put a lot of work into being ahead with third party agreements....good on her....It's up to other clubs to wake up and smell that coffee.

 

[jamaman]

I don't think the Warriors like negotiating third party agreements,
maybe conflicts with their major sponsers

 

[tangalife]

If we finish 6th we get a home game first up against whoever finishes 7th, then, if we win, an away game against whoever loses out of the 2 v 3 game.

Oh yeah lol forgot thats how it works

 

[sup42]

I don't think the Warriors like negotiating third party agreements,
maybe conflicts with their major sponsers

Certainly there was an issue in the past.

Part of the problem was the lack of external sponsors ( Like SLater being sponsored by Asutralian Banana's ) in NZ there are less opportunities.

That's all changed with the loosening up of what is a sponsor directly linked to the club and what is not ( ergo the Tinkler payments to their players ).

This is why all of a sudden sums like 650 K for Hoffman and Teo were being bandied about....these are not registered Salary figures...they're TPA inflated offers ( our cap space couldn't abide those level of payments ).

In short we are going out as aggressively as the next club , albeit well behind a core of them....but the Hoffman deal is to be celebrated...it's us starting to catch up.

Two things about these TPA's to consider : they are not guaranteed so players have to be prepared to take the risk......the other is that they have to be pre approved by the NRL.....clearly some teams like the Dogs understand gaining pre approval better than others.

Brisbane are about to find out all about taking shortcuts.

 

[Izz]

Oh yeah lol forgot thats how it works

But if we won week 1, look out whoever we played in week 2.

 

[Skinner]

There are no "soft games" in Rugby League. They have a nasty habit of turning into "upsets". But, and it is early, a top 8 finish, at this point, looks entirely doable.

 

[Scott]

Before the season started there was a poll on where we would finish. I went for 3rd or 4th then. I'll stick with that prediction.

If we can keep everybody fit & with 8 games at MtSmart, I see no reason why we can't finish inside the top 4.

 

[sup42]

The 'no easy games in the NRL' cliche should be understood better by Warriors fans than any other club , how many ridiculous one off giant killer scalps have we taken in our time.......

Our defence is good.....I expect it will get better , especially as the right edge players Fusitua and Hurrell get more time together.

As it stands , no ones getting dropped for other players with the exceptions of Chad ans Havili.

TL has a right of passage if he gets fit , certainly if Townsend grows his game while TL is out....he too could force TL to come back as a Hooker.

So we have a settled line up. This is it. All other players on our Roster have to wait for form drops or injury.

Congratulations Ngani and young David.....hoping Chad and Havili make it very difficult to bring TL back in....for good reasons.