The run home.

Discussion in 'Parramatta Eels' started by Last Week, Jul 1, 2017.

  1. Last Week

    Last Week Juniors

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    We have 8 games left. And I think a good chunk of them we should win. Those games we should win are often our biggest danger games.

    Rnd 18: Melbourne (A) *Origin
    Rnd 19: Bye
    Rnd 20: Tigers (A) *ANZ
    Rnd 21: Brisbane (H)
    Rnd 22: Bulldogs (A) *ANZ
    Rnd 23: Newcastle (H)
    Rnd 24: Gold Coast (H)
    Rnd 25: Brisbane (A)
    Rnd 26: Souths (H)

    Were currently on 20 points and will get another 2 after the bye.

    Cut off for the top 8 is usually around 28 points. Considering our F/A, we'd probably need at least 29 points to make it.

    Brisbane is the only team there who I would say is out right better than we are, and we have a pretty good record against them.

    4 wins out of that lot?
     
  2. phantom eel

    phantom eel First Grade

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    Rnd 18: Melbourne (A) - LOSS
    Rnd 19: Bye - WIN
    Rnd 20: Tigers (A) - WIN
    Rnd 21: Brisbane (H) - NOT SURE (LOSS)
    Rnd 22: Bulldogs (A) - WIN
    Rnd 23: Newcastle (H) - WIN
    Rnd 24: Gold Coast (H) - NOT SURE (LOSS)
    Rnd 25: Brisbane (A) - NOT SURE (WIN)
    Rnd 26: Souths (H) - WIN

    We should be able to split the two Brisbane games... if we lose the first one, we should have them worked out for the second one.

    I mnake that another 12 points on the ladder, which would bring us to 32 points - and surely enough to make the eight and finals footy?
     
  3. parra-matters

    parra-matters Coach

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    I think the cut off this year will be 30pts.
    I did a ladder predictor earlier today and this what i came up with the top 8.
    ladderpredictor1.JPG
     
  4. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    we should beat melbourne ... tho not a given

    hopefully souths season will go down the drain and they will clock off for round 26

    gold coast might also depend a bit on whether they are still in the hunt for the finals

    brisbane games will be tough
    dogs games are usually tough - but sometimes the dogs don't bother turning up, lets cross our fingers

    unfortunately other teams probably look at us in their upcoming games and go - "we should beat them, but if they turn up and play it might be tough" - cos we are so f**kin inconsistant

    I honestly think we could hope to get 14 points out of all that ... realistically I will hope for 10
     
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  5. parra-matters

    parra-matters Coach

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    I have beating Broncos at ANZ but losing to them at Suncorp and the Titans beat us as they are a bit of bogey team for us.
    We should win the rest, SHOULD.

    But we all know Parra......
     
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  6. Bazal

    Bazal Immortal

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    The Titans are a bit of a bogey side for us for some reason and we often struggle against Brisbane, so the pessimist in me puts those down as likely losses.

    Realistically we should win the rest. Apart from Melbourne, who will be without their spine, they are all sides below us on the ladder.

    Honestly there's no reason apart from being Parramatta that we can't win all those games. I definitely don't think we will, but there isn't a single game there that I look at as unwinnable...

    Realistically though, because we are Parramatta, I'd say we will win one of the games we are expected to lose and lose one or two of the games we're expected to win. That'll leave us with at least 30-32 points.
     
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  7. phantom eel

    phantom eel First Grade

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    I reckon we're playing busted at the moment, with very few troops available. I was worried when Ma'u went off on Friday night, lucky guys like Gower stood up.

    Even a spineless Melbourne will test and potentially beat us. But after the bye, I reckon BA will pull them together and we'll go pretty well!
     
  8. Chipmunk

    Chipmunk First Grade

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    If the Storm without 4 Origin players can come very close to beating a virtual full strength Roosters team only missing Cordner, then are we really going to worry a pack of middle forwards that are far superior than what we'll put on the field?

    I think this game will be a lot even a match up than what people expect.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2017
  9. Chipmunk

    Chipmunk First Grade

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    So you reckon the Cowboys, who have 5 games in the tropics left for the year, and who have won plenty of games without Thurston already, will won only one more game all season?
     
  10. Poupou Escobar

    Poupou Escobar Immortal

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    Dragons have better middle forwards than us and we accounted for them easily - twice.

    Middle forwards aren't the be all and end all of rugby league success. It's a team game.
     
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  11. Bazal

    Bazal Immortal

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    I suppose that's why people are saying we "should" win, not "it's in the bag merkins, pop the champers and give us the points now!"
     
  12. Kornstar

    Kornstar Coach

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    We should win 50% of our remaining games, I don't believe the Storm will be a win. I'm confident they will win that game well.

    50% will get us to the finals, any more wins is just a bonus!
     
  13. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    I've had a few goes at the predictor and come up with 28 points being enough, despite our differential. Obviously there's a f**kload of variables, but the logjam of points between 9th and 14th or so, and then the two win gap to 8th tells me on current form wins are gonna be shared around a fair bit with the teams below us.

    I have the Cows and dragons sliding, I don't reckon both these sides make the eight, probs the cowboys scrape in,

    If that's the case, of the sides below us, I just can't see two or more of them winning enough games to push us out at 28 points. for that to happen you'd need to see two of the following..

    Wins/games to reach 28.

    Panthers 6/10
    Warriors 5/9
    Raiders 6/9
    Rabbits 7/10
    Dogs 6/8
    Titans 6/8

    Panthers warriors raiders look the most likely, but they all play each other, which works in our favour, if the rest of the round goes to form, then panthers will want 5/9 Warriors 5/8, and Raiders I'm tipping to take the cows so 5/8 , Cows win and they're wanting 6/8
     
  14. IFR33K

    IFR33K First Grade

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    The storm are a well structured side, and beating them without their stars will go a long way towards where we finish. Beating the broncos at least once will be an absolute bonus.

    There are many winnable games in the reamaining rounds, but probably just as many losable as well. Realistically the top 4 is well within reach. If we can't make it with that dream run, then we don't deserve to play September footy.

    Like I've stated several times, it's a damn near miracle we still in contention, let alone in the 8. Let's hope we have a dream injury run from here on end, because anything is possible.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2017
  15. IFR33K

    IFR33K First Grade

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    Ladder predictor is a waste of time. Week in week out there's upsets. If it was that simple, everyone would get 100% of tips right.
     
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  16. Eelogical

    Eelogical Bench

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    Yes! On paper we look short odds to make the 8. Piece of piss...............on paper!
     
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  17. chiefy1

    chiefy1 Juniors

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    We just need to worry about melbourne. The other talk is all crap.
    We will definitely beat them through our kicking game and settled backline. We have suitable forward replacements.
     
  18. strider

    strider Post Whore

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    Just for the record, i catch the train
     
  19. Eelogical

    Eelogical Bench

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    In the grand scheme of things, we would get pumped without lube if their SOO players were on deck. If we do indeed get reamed by their expected team to play then that will really show us what to expect come finals time and it won't be pretty.
     
  20. Last Week

    Last Week Juniors

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    Looking at our run home, what would be a fair expectation for a finish?

    I would accept nothing less than a top 8 finish, injuries pending.

    Top 4 would be an over achievement.

    8th is the minimum and where I expect us to finish.
     

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