16 teams would be an absolutely awful decision:
1) Not enough money, remaining clubs would just not accept the huge drop in what they get from television. Remaining clubs could suffer because of the sudden drop in the amount of pie they get.
2) Not enough players. We do not want to make the competition worse and by adding 80 odd new players it would make the competition which could therefore create scorelines like Leeds 80-4 Celtic Crusaders or St Helens 78-2 Widnes. Thats if we use home-born players, but then clubs would probably look towards the NRL... and it doesn't help that there are new player quotas being introduced too.
3) Too many fixtures. We will have Challenge Cup matches, Millenium Magic, two tips to France, people want more Internationals and these extra fixtures would be too much for the players.
4) Not enough support. If anything does go wrong than the RFL won't have the resources to stop it. Even though I would call the Dragons "stable", I would not say the same thing about Harlequins - something could go wrong if the FC side pull out. Having to "monitar" Celtic Crusaders and Toulouse too could prove disasterous. The worst thing ever would be too have another Sheffield, or Gateshead, or Paris because that is when you put the Super League and the sport in this country in danger. And as we've seen with Widnes, not all heartlands clubs are healthy now. Although I doubt that will happen again with Widnes.
5) Collapse of National League One? Losing three teams would be a disaster for the competition and the Sky contract that the National League has done well to get could disappear. From my knowledge only Oldham and Barrow have the resources to replace them, but obviously are not as big as Widnes, Salford or the Crusaders for that matter.
You think that by adding the four "strongest contenders" into the League, everything will be all rosy, but it won't be. It will have the opposite effect and it could land the RFL and the FFR in alot of trouble.
In my opinion it is right to expand Super League now, although I think it is wrong to add more clubs in 2012.
London was always going to be a difficult target and I think Harlequins have done well with regards to players and junior clubs, but off the field things still need to be done. The amount of supporters they have has been rising, but this supporter base it not enough to get them a £4 million turnover (which, along with solvency, are the two most important criterias imo). To be honest I would be surprised if they were anywhere near that mark. Not owning their ground too makes them even more insecure. Having been to Toulouse it is a massive job they've got on their hands and they will need alot of help from the FFR for the first 3-4 years if that. Look at Catalans, only now are they steady off and on the pitch with sell-outs crowds, producing fantastic French players and in third place. And Celtic Crusaders will be an even bigger challenge in my opinion. They have work to do off and on the field with regards to turnover, ground work, more player development, bring in more fans plus I think Sky will be looking for a audience increase in South Wales. Alot of work to be done.
Potentially all three of those clubs could be in Super League in 2009, which I am not having a go at, but do you think these clubs will be getting £4m turnover by 2012? I don't think so. Do you think all three will be getting crowds of at least 10,000 by 2012? I very much doubt it. Do you think all three will be playing 70% junior home-grown squad? Harlequins perhaps, but the other two I'm not so sure. Heres one for you: do you think all three will still be around by 2012?
Until these targets are hit we should not be expanding the league again in 2012. I know that the RFL haven't officially said that they will increase to 15 or 16 teams in 2012, but they have stupidly revealed that they will be reassessing the situation in 2012, which makes fans and clubs believe that they will be changing the format, adding teams etc. And the ball gets rollin' What should happen is that after 2009, there should be no more expansion until all clubs are getting an A grade. At the moment, according to Boots And All, just four are currently getting that grade, although Wigan (salary cap), Bradford (salary cap) and Catalans (haven't been rated, but rapid growth) could be there very soon. You could say 5/12 or 6/12 is good work, but risky seeing as we are expanding. Lets make sure it's 14/14 before we expand again. Finito.
