What nobody needed, a study to confirm the obvious

Discussion in 'Four Corners' started by Surely, Sep 20, 2017.

  1. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    NATURE GEOSCIENCE | ARTICLE

    Nature Geoscience

    10,

    478–485

    (2017)
    doi:10.1038/ngeo2973
    Received

    23 December 2016
    Accepted

    22 May 2017
    Published online

    19 June 2017
    Citation
    Abstract
    In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.


    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n7/full/ngeo2973.html?foxtrotcallback=true

    Back to the drawing board
     
  2. mave

    mave Bench

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    Its going to be hot today.
     
  3. butchmcdick

    butchmcdick Guest

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    Instead of posting the summary click on the entire article and read the last paragraph before the bibliography
     
  4. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

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    Interesting article but as butch said in the conclusion they literally say this data does not cast doubt over man made climate change and i assume surely is posting it to say that it does ???
     
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  5. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    Its a big step for them to admit their models were wrong

    Eventually they'll fess up to the last paragraph being wrong.
     
  6. B-dos

    B-dos Referee

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    do you have to pay to read the article?
     
  7. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    No
     
  8. DC_fan

    DC_fan Coach

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    "The report says that at least three different interpretations of the slowdown have emerged." The wording here implies their could be more. If so, what are they?

    "It is of interest to examine some implications of these schools of thought." The important word here is some. Why just some, and not all?

    A problem I have with scientific reports like this one is that they are able to cherry pick what data they include.
     
  9. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    The whole industry has been based on cherry picking

    For example this winter we have had warm days where I am, proof of global warming they say.

    However we have had cool minimums, now you would expect all this CO2 in the atmosphere would have kept some of that high daytime temperatures warmth in, it didn't.
     
  10. Jimbo

    Jimbo Immortal

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    'We've got NFI about what happened over the last twenty years, but you can trust us about the next hundred...'
     
  11. butchmcdick

    butchmcdick Guest

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    Says the man who cherry picked a summary to try to prove his point which is actually the complete opposite of the studies conclusion
     
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  12. sportive cupid

    sportive cupid Referee

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    It was an abstract Butch,n5it a summary .
     
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  13. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    That's right

    Easy isn't it
     
  14. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    040126_36_08_727784441073350464.png 040126_38_08_3466983357636321753.png




    Cherry picking at its finest
     
  15. Game_Breaker

    Game_Breaker First Grade

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    Almost a b-dos level own goal
     
  16. millersnose

    millersnose Post Whore

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    do people still doubt the models ran too hot??
    really??

    on a comical note

    ben santer..the boners of climate science
    lol
     
  17. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    What are you disputing ?
     
  18. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    Clouds mate, or lack there of.
     
  19. Surely

    Surely Moderator Staff Member

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    No shit
     
  20. Bandwagon

    Bandwagon Coach

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    No shit.
     

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