Wheat v Chaff

Discussion in 'NRL' started by legend, Apr 19, 2017.

  1. legend

    legend Coach

    Joined:
    May 19, 2003
    Messages:
    14,885
    Likes Received:
    57
    Let's hear it! Only a few fall into the wheat category IMO.

    Storm
    Sharks
    Raiders

    Teams listed above are the best three teams this year IMO. Cowboys started well but injuries are going to derail their season IMO. Dragons have been a major surprise and if the chooks can get it together, they could easily make the top four. Not sold on the rest, least of all Penrith. Five losses after seven rounds means the top four is almost certainly out. Could miss out altogether at the rate they are going.
     
  2. big hit!

    big hit! Juniors

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,753
    Likes Received:
    224
    long season.....lots of twists and turns to come......come finals several will be in the hunt.......did anyone expect Cronulla to win the title last year at this stage of the season? what happened last year means jack this season
     
  3. carcharias

    carcharias Immortal

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2003
    Messages:
    34,269
    Likes Received:
    3,205
    Gus did
    He said so
     
  4. Pig Champion

    Pig Champion Juniors

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2005
    Messages:
    1,831
    Likes Received:
    155
    Three cheers for Gus.
     
    Eion, carcharias and Pundapat like this.
  5. Charlie124

    Charlie124 First Grade

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2006
    Messages:
    8,337
    Likes Received:
    341
    Raiders haven't beaten anyone good yet. Id hold off on singing their praises until they beat a top 8 side.
     
  6. Walt Flanigan

    Walt Flanigan Coach

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2004
    Messages:
    18,211
    Likes Received:
    1,412
    This is true. We still struggle with the grinders.
     
  7. Pete Cash

    Pete Cash Immortal

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2007
    Messages:
    45,874
    Likes Received:
    3,877
    The warriors and eels were out the 8 on f/a when we beat them. I mean i think we have a lot to prove too but we have beat teams with equal wins with top 8 sides

    When we moved into the 8 after beating the eels we actually moved onto the same amount of points as they were on. We just had a better f/a from thrashing the tigers
     
  8. adamkungl

    adamkungl Immortal

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2005
    Messages:
    39,190
    Likes Received:
    2,750
    This week will answer some questions.

    Roosters need to aim up to prove they can beat a good side, so far basically scraped past plodders and stumbled against stiffer competition. Dragons will want to keep proving they deserve their spot at the top.
     
  9. wibble

    wibble Juniors

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,125
    Likes Received:
    380
    Yeah, Dragons beat us, but it was 2 tries all and we threw an intercept and dropped one over the line (they were the better team though), but other than that they haven't really been tested either. It should be a good gauge of both teams.

    I agree, that at the moment, Storm, Sharks, Raiders and Dragons are looking the best, and Knights, Panthers, Tigers, Souths, Eels all looking unlikely.

    Form one third of the way into the comp often remains true, but it certainly doesn't remain true for all teams.

    A few more weeks before silly season (Origin, which completely changes "form" and historically form around Origin time usually doesn't mean much, as teams are too disrupted to really know how they're going), and we should get a pretty clear idea.

    After Origin, if a team is in the top 4 they have to lose the vast majority of games to fall from the 8, and this is rare, and vice versa for the bottom 4.
     
  10. Life's Good

    Life's Good First Grade

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2016
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    6,701
    Surely there would be some sort of stat that shows the change in ladder position from certain points in the season(pre, during & post origin as an eg). That would be interesting to see the hit and miss nature of some teams from those that start the season well, to those that fall away etc. Regardless it's likely to be a mad scramble for the eight from rds 20-26.
     
  11. TheDMC

    TheDMC Juniors

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2011
    Messages:
    1,985
    Likes Received:
    232
    Ladder progression during the season is on wikipedia. Not perfect visually but pretty good to track ladder position trends... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NRL_season
     
    Life's Good likes this.
  12. wibble

    wibble Juniors

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,125
    Likes Received:
    380
    No doubt you could compile such a stat.

    It is pretty easy to look at past season's ladders and get a snapshot of how teams went from round 7 to 26.

    For example, last year after round 7 the top 8 was:
    1) Broncos- slipped a bit just before and around Origin
    2) Cowboys- ditto
    3) Sharks- kept winning until the last few rounds, then entered the finals on a losing streak
    4) Eels- stripped of points
    5) Storm- rose steadily each week to be minor premiers
    6) Bulldogs- just slipped right at the end of the season and bundled out of final
    7) Raiders- rose steadily all season from here
    8) Rabbitohs- dropped more than won from here and finished 12th

    Finalists Titans and Panthers were 9th and 10th, and the Eels were stripped of points.

    After round 26:
    1) Storm
    2) Raiders
    3) Sharks
    4) Cowboys
    5) Broncos
    6) Panthers
    7) Bulldogs
    8) Titans

    So basically last year, after round 7, the teams in the 8 continued to do well except the 8th placed Rabbitohs (who still only finished 2 wins out of the 8) and the Eels, who were stripped of points, and the two teams who came into the finals were 9th and 10th in round 7.

    In 2015, the top 8 after round 7 remained the same in round 26 except the Knights, who fell away from 7th to last, and the Sharks who virtually swapped fate with the Knights, going from 15th to 7th.

    That doesn't fill teams 11 to 16 currently with a lot of optimism I suppose, but in 2014 four teams dropped from the 8 from round 7 to 14 (Tigers from 2nd to 13th, Titans from 4th to 14th, Dragons from 6th to 11th and Eels from 8th to 10th) and teams 9 (Storm), 10 (Rabbitohs), 11 (Roosters) and 13 (Cowboys) rose to the top 8.

    (In 2013 there were two changes, Broncos and Titans dropped out, Sharks and Bulldogs climbed in, in 2012 there were two changes, Dragons and Roosters dropped out, Raiders and Rabbitohs climbed in).

    You can scroll the records easily, but in general, most the teams in the top 8 after 7 rounds remain in the top 8 after 26 rounds, but there are a few changes, usually about 2, and usually it is usually teams from 5th to 8th that drop (to 9th to 12th) and teams from 9th to 12th that climb to 5th to 8th.
     
    cleary89, Pete Cash, Walpole and 4 others like this.
  13. Life's Good

    Life's Good First Grade

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2016
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    6,701
    Thats some great work Wibble(and DMC). Thanks.

    I actually thought the overall change might be higher than the 'usually about 2' you made mention. I guess the big change is in actual finishing position(eg 4th dropping to 6th, 5th moving up to 3rd etc.) as opposed to those making a late entry into the eight(coming from 11th to 8th in the final 2 rounds as an example).

    So the standard saying is pretty much true that whilst you don't win the comp in the first few rounds, you sure as hell give yourself a chance of semis & beyond by being in the eight in the early rounds.
     
  14. wibble

    wibble Juniors

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2011
    Messages:
    2,125
    Likes Received:
    380
    Teams that are "2 wins" out of the 8 with 2 or 3 rounds to go don't discount their own chances, but usually to make the 8 they need several other teams to go on losing streaks while they go on a winning one. So it is hard to sneak into the 8 from more than a win away. the most common time this is possible is with those mythical "4 point games" where a team around 9th plays a team around 8th in a late round.

    I only covered a few years, there are examples of teams in previous years being on a handful of wins then stringing 10 or so consecutive wins to make the finals, but it is surprisingly rare.

    In reality, winning more than about 8 of the last 10 games, even for the top teams, is hard to do, and teams that are good enough to win many of their first 10 or so matches, rarely lose most of their last matches.

    So most the swapping is teams with records just above 50% wins dropping and teams with just below 50% wins rising.

    Put it this way, I'm very confident the Dragons will make the 8 this year. You should be safe!
     
    Life's Good likes this.
  15. Dragon Slayer

    Dragon Slayer Coach

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2003
    Messages:
    10,335
    Likes Received:
    810
    The only teams at this point I see potentially dropping out of the 8 are the Cowboys and Bulldogs.

    I've got a feeling those spots might be taken by the Warriors and the Panthers if they get their act together. The Oanthers also have a soft draw. They only play the Sharks, Storm and Broncos once this year in the regular season.
     
  16. Life's Good

    Life's Good First Grade

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2016
    Messages:
    5,715
    Likes Received:
    6,701
    Well that's it then. Dousty, fire up the T shirt maker......
     
    OVP, sensesmaybenumbed and wibble like this.
  17. Eion

    Eion Bench

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2008
    Messages:
    4,322
    Likes Received:
    507
    Well at least if the panthers win it will be a soft comp for them.
     
  18. Pedge1971

    Pedge1971 Bench

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2011
    Messages:
    3,415
    Likes Received:
    1,384
    I think the comp is a little bit soft. Whoever wins will have won a soft comp. Lol at Gus' rabble in13th spot.

    Seriously though, any team above 13th is still capable of making the 8 imo (Panthers up).

    Only Canberrs or Brisbane are capable of cracking the top 4. Top 6 teams will def make the 8.

    Warriors will get their traditional leg up during origin period and with that spine if they don't make the 8 this year they never will.
     
  19. pantherz9103

    pantherz9103 First Grade

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2004
    Messages:
    8,125
    Likes Received:
    271
    If we lose to the Eels then that's it for '17
     
  20. Bobby DIGital

    Bobby DIGital Coach

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2003
    Messages:
    11,505
    Likes Received:
    359
    After looking at the draw, I'm confident we'll win the next 10 games.
     

Share This Page