When to expand?

[Perth Red]

Ok lets leave the question of where to one side and consider when. Originally 2013 was the suggested date, then the delay in the IC formation pushed this out of contention. Gallop then started talking about "by" 2015 and is now sounding stronger that it won't be till the 2015 season.

Questions I have are:

1. if the addition of an extra game a week and new audiences adds value to the TV deal why wait beyond what is reasonable in terms of setting a club up?
2. If the IC forms in Nov then realistically they could have expansion decided by march 2012. this would mean a kick off for 2014 would give a 2 year lead in time for clubs, plenty i would have thought?
3. If it is about saving money in the first 2 years of the new TV deal, how much will be lost by not having the additional sides playing an extra game and how will the savings from not having two teams (prob around $24mill) be distributed to the existing 16 clubs, I wouldn't have thought an extra $750k a year for two years will make a massive difference to their long term sustainability?
4. Does delaying another 3 seasons from now put the bids in a difficult position in terms of sustaining corporate support and fan engagement?
5. If the TV deal does take NRL income over $1billion is it really necessary to unduly delay expansion past 2014?

 

[Raidersrawesome]

If the bid teams are in a position to be ready by 2013 , thats including everything Stadium , corporate support and players then it should happen for 2013.

 

[ManlyMania]

its to give the existing clubs a fair crack at stabalisation. I think its required and this is the chance to do it.

 

[innsaneink]

Theyre looking at the Titans very very closely.

 

[Perth Red]

In theory I can understand that. In reality it means unduly delaying expansion a year is worth less than $750k to each club. Is it worth delaying expansion for that amount and will a one off $750k payment really make much difference to most clubs?

 

[PB]

I think the question of "if" would need to be studyed first.

Before you can ask when should we expand, there needs to be a proper detailed feasibility study undertaken to see if it is viable, not simply a group of power brokers sitting in a room debating it. Fully costed, pros and cons impact and ramfication analysis needs to be undertaken. With the possible outcome being relocate, not expand.

So to answer your question i would see the above needing to be done first. Say it commenced on November 2, it would take the best part of 12 months, so we are now at the end of 2012. if you are setting up a new club, you will need another 2 years to get it right, so 2015 looks more likely. But if it is relocating, it could probably be done by 2014.

 

[Perth Red]

Good point but it would seem the if has been answered in the large part and if not totally will def need to be answered by the time the IC sits down with TV negotiations. Expansion should be a selling point for an increased TV deal so that decision will have needed to be made before negotiations begin.

 

[ManlyMania]

In theory I can understand that. In reality it means unduly delaying expansion a year is worth less than $750k to each club. Is it worth delaying expansion for that amount and will a one off $750k payment really make much difference to most clubs?

i think it would to manly raiders sharks titans penrith and thats straight off the top nearly half the comp.

 

[Red Bear]

No earlier than 2014 now, probably 2015

 

[dimitri]

personally id like to see the IC make a decsision as soon as they come in, then we can all stop wondering

then have an extra game for the whole duration of the new tv deal

then should be more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


:crazy:

 

[simostorm]

TV Deal with Perth = More money
Tv Deal without Perth = Less money

Why waste time?

Bring them in with the new tv deal.

 

[typicalfan]

if expansion happens in 2015 then any tv rights deal that is for 4-5 years would include Perth for some part of the deal. At the moment the rights are worth at least 1.2 billion. NRL outrates AFL in 4 of the 5 biggest markets in Australia and it got 1.25. A tv network could buy the NRL rights at a bargain by comparison say 1-1.1 billion and get a good return at the back end when they NRL could be actually worth 1.3-1.5 billion.

Also if the AFL numbers slide due to their GC and GWS teams then we could take a bit of their slice next time as well.

 

[POPEYE]

Does give an existing Sydney club time to reconsider and initiate negotiations for a relocation if 2015 is the date.

Why a Sydney club struggling for bums on seats and with plenty of money wouldn't consider having two home bases in theory is beyond me.

 

[ParraEelsNRL]

Tomorrow.

 

[BuffaloRules]

You would think the extra game would pay for itself in the TV deal?

 

[typicalfan]

Does give an existing Sydney club time to reconsider and initiate negotiations for a relocation if 2015 is the date.

Why a Sydney club struggling for bums on seats and with plenty of money wouldn't consider having two home bases in theory is beyond me.

If a team relocates to Perth it has to be for good. No half half stuff. They need to be part of the community and build a rapport with the fans. Can't have a Perth team playing half their games at Cronulla.

 

[Perth Red]

No thread drifts please, plenty of other threads to discuss Cronulla's relocation!

I am still struggling to see how A) delaying expansion for the sake of $750k a club is worth it and B) How having the extra game and new audiences a week cannot be worth more than the cost of bringing in the two clubs.

 

[carlosthedwarf]

It could be more than $750k, and for a struggling club I'm sure any respite would be welcomed. For two years that could add up to nearly $2million if it's more than $750k.

I would like to see them come in with the new TV deal but only if the bids are ready.

What will probably happen is that the bids will be chosen before the new TV deal is negotiated but not entered until after.

 

[typicalfan]

No thread drifts please, plenty of other threads to discuss Cronulla's relocation!

I am still struggling to see how A) delaying expansion for the sake of $750k a club is worth it and B) How having the extra game and new audiences a week cannot be worth more than the cost of bringing in the two clubs.

I don't like how people say what are we going to do to increase the TV deal? We should be getting an increase because it is already worth more than it is getting. Much more.

I would live with 2015 for expansion if they looked at trying to create a genuine national reserve competition to go hand in hand with the Toyota Cup. We need to be able to nurture some of the Toyota Cup talent that might not explode onto the scene but may be good down the track, perhaps even valuable for a would be Perth side.

Not trying to change the subject but it is something that needs to be strongly considered. Get 3 games back on game day, give the fans that spend their hard earned to go to games better value. That is an important investment.

If not then 2013 I would have no problems with that.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

That's a good question for another thread: Should the new Media Money be directed towards a national reserves competition?