So with 8 rounds to go who are the pretenders/contenders?

[Slug]

What you are forgetting slugster is Souths have had traumatic and failure riddled finals experience. There is a difference between this and memorable winning finals experience. They got smashed by Manly and the Dogs in back to back prelims, and only just got over the Storm in 2013 due to a couple of horrible pro Souths ref calls and a favourable 10 to 4 pen count.

Souths will choke again this year - we know and they know it too. As such, their premiership window will close for good...

You don't know shit. It is called wishing. This is a much better side.

Make the most of your window.....it is about to close.

 

[ouwet]

Besides that i think anyone in the top 8 can win it, however i doubt the Panthers (purely because of their injury toll, but they do keep winning so i won't exactly write them off just yet) and the Bulldogs, who've just dropped since the end of Origin.

It's true, we have crashed since origin! But there is time for us to get our mojo back and cause some headaches! We've beaten South Sydney, Roosters, Warriors X 2, Melbourne X 2, and Manly this season...

For some reason we have really struggled against teams we should?ve beaten (Maybe a mental thing), but If we lose to the Tiger?s this week, we are gone? If we win, we?ll give South Sydney a good fight the week after!

 

[Patorick]

Souths-Easts GF.

Injuries and suspensions permitting.

For me, Manly just aren't good enough across the field this year (mostly in the forwards), same goes with Melbourne.

 

[chrisD]

There's the expected four contenders with the Cowboys as smokies, I guess what the majority would have said at the start of the year. Souths had me fooled, they looked really shit for extended periods there and I thought it was real.

 

[Sea_Eagles_Rock]

Te'o has taken the early plea apparently and won't be back until w2 finals.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-18/te27o-accepts-four-week-nrl-ban/5678160

That's going to make things interesting for the Bunnies in the next few weeks.

 

[Billythekid]

Souths-Easts GF.

Injuries and suspensions permitting.

For me, Manly just aren't good enough across the field this year (mostly in the forwards), same goes with Melbourne.

I tend to agree but Melbourne and manly tend to just find a way. I think for sure we will see with of them in the GF possibly both. I stand by my prediction that souths absolutely won't win this year despite how things currently look. Prepared for egg on my face lol.

 

[alien]

Souths will probably get to the Grand Final and lose because of stage fright. You have to lose one before you win one.

not always. its a myth...

 

[maple_69]

Interesting stat I came across looking at the ladder. Looking at games decided by less than 12/more than 12.
Souths-1-6/13-1
Manly- 10-3/5-3
Penrith- 9-4/5-3
Roosters- 4-6/9-2
Storm- 6-6/6-3

Not sure historically how much this says but pretty dramatic regular season tale. Souths cant handle an arm wrestle but put teams away when they're on top. Manly and Penrith are the clutch kings. Roosters and Melbourne nothing too compelling just inconsistent seasons as we knew.

Souths deserve to be favourites right now but I'd be a bit worried about their ability to close out close, tough finals games.

 

[Meapro Ham]

Roosters Manly GF again. Both know how to beat Souths when it counts. Souths are false favourites. Won't get their usual glut of penalties in the finals and will fall short again.

 

[BranVan3000]

not always. its a myth...

You need to look back almost ten years to find an exception

 

[BranVan3000]

Roosters Manly GF again. Both know how to beat Souths when it counts. Souths are false favourites. Won't get their usual glut of penalties in the finals and will fall short again.

So you think Souths beat Manly because they received two more penalties? Not because they ran for 600m more

 

[Meapro Ham]

So you think Souths beat Manly because they received two more penalties? Not because they ran for 600m more

No I think they beat Manly because it wasn't a crunch game. When it comes to the finals Souths don't get the dominance in the forwards they are used to. Penalties are part of it but there are other reasons. Same will happen this year.

 

[The Pip]

So you think Souths beat Manly because they received two more penalties? Not because they ran for 600m more

Baron Von Richtofen, please keep in mind that it's not necessarily the total number of penalties a team receives, but in fact ,when and where they receive these said penalties.

For example, Souths tend to receive most of their penalties in the 1st half of their games, and almost always either coming out of their 20m zone or when they are attacking in the opposition's 20m zone.

The general trend in Souths games is that the penalty count is initially lopsided towards Souths, say 8 to 2 when the game is on the line, and then it will even out a tad to say 10 to 6 when Souths are ok, and cant lose.

Watch this trend continue for at least another 3 weeks...

 

[JJ]

Interesting stat I came across looking at the ladder. Looking at games decided by less than 12/more than 12.
Souths-1-6/13-1
Manly- 10-3/5-3
Penrith- 9-4/5-3
Roosters- 4-6/9-2
Storm- 6-6/6-3

Not sure historically how much this says but pretty dramatic regular season tale. Souths cant handle an arm wrestle but put teams away when they're on top. Manly and Penrith are the clutch kings. Roosters and Melbourne nothing too compelling just inconsistent seasons as we knew.

Souths deserve to be favourites right now but I'd be a bit worried about their ability to close out close, tough finals games.

That's great stuff, and the reason I still favour Manly But Souths can certainly dominate, I am not convinced Manly played all their cards last time

 

[Valheru]

You need to look back almost ten years to find an exception

No you don?t

Of the 16 NRL premiers thus far only the 07 Storm, 08 Manly and at a stretch the 13 Roosters come under this category and that is only if you allow a 3 year period between the ?one they had to lose? in the roosters case.

You cannot possibly put 11 Manly and 09/12 Storm in that category.

 

[Charlie124]

Broncos have never lost one either.

 

[maple_69]

The reasoning is you need the experience of making a gf and understanding the timibg, the pressure and everything to be able to handle it next time.. Bellamy, Hasler, Manly and Melbourne didn't suddenly forget how to handle it after a year out of the big one.
It certainly helps having the experience but it's not a rule. I think this year in particular its a lottery, anyone could put it together for a few weeks and win.

 

[billypilgrimnz]

I think it is Souths' to lose.

 

[The Pip]

I think it is Souths' to lose.

Yes I agree with this, and they will...

 

[BranVan3000]

No you don?t

Of the 16 NRL premiers thus far only the 07 Storm, 08 Manly and at a stretch the 13 Roosters come under this category and that is only if you allow a 3 year period between the ?one they had to lose? in the roosters case.

You cannot possibly put 11 Manly and 09/12 Storm in that category.

Both modern Manly and Melbourne lost a Grand Final before putting together their long run of appearances and Premierships. And yes Roosters count in that list as well. Brisbane as well had a team of players and a coach with the Grand Final experience. Of course the rule only works when a team is part of some long term dynasty not flash in the pans like Parra or the Warriors