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Who said it can't be expanded until after 2022? As far as I can see there's nothing to prevent them signing an additional television deal tomorrow for a ninth game (as a fourth FTA game). Of course they won't while there's still the (remote) possibility of existing clubs leaving at the end of 2017 to form their own comp. But once the clubs are locked into until 2022 and the ARLC's obligations under the new television deals secured (i.e. three games for Channel Nine and five games for Fox Sports each week), there doesn't appear to be any block on creating extra content over and above that before 2022.
Given neither you nor I are privy to the discussions of the ARLC, how do you know a decision in principle hasn't already been taken and it isn't just being kept confidential until existing clubs and funding are locked in? Adding new members to the ARLC is hardly something you'd want to tell the existing members about while haggling with them over funding. Likewise, given the Richardson report potentially maps the strategic plans for the game over many years to come, and those strategic plans would tip off the competition about where we want to expand, I doubt we'd want that document made public. But that doesn't mean the report has been buried or won't be enacted in part or full. As you say, we'll see.
At the time the Channel Nine deal was announced, it was explicitly stated it allowed for expansion during the lifetime of the deal 2018-2022. Nothing that was announced yesterday has contradicted that. We now know the Saturday night game in itself is worth $35m per year. Presumably a ninth game played in Sunday night primetime would be priced in the same ballpark. Knowing that Channel Nine wanted a fourth FTA game, want a second Brisbane team, and have $175m back in their pocket from the re-negotiation I think it's still a very real possibility. Assuming club grants of $13m in 2018 (i.e. 130% of $10m total player payments), $26m per year would appear to be the starting point for negotiations for a ninth game without impacting any of the funding arrangements for the existing 16 teams and eight games.
