OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Poupou Escobar]

Ok I am talking about countries and their respective economies but you are talking about comparing cohorts within your community ?

Housing affordability (for example) is still a fairly local concern I'd say.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

That's a very black and white attitude. Ignoring the benefits of skilled migration and focussing on the cost of housing is very closed minded. Without such migration coupled with zero population growth we would be living in a very different country were job security is poor, consumer confidence is low and the well being of the general community is poor.

There will always be losers in this game of life (I'm starting to sound like @hindy111 ) but I assure you there are less losers in a economy which uses skilled migration as a tool for economic growth than there is in a stagnant low or negative growth economy.

In general I agree with you, but for people at the bottom it's hard for them to see that. Instead they see immigrants coming in above them on the ladder and then leaving them behind. The (relatively) few benefits are invisible to them because they're not comparing themselves to people in a similar socioeconomic situation in poorer countries.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So if we invented a cloning machine and cloned the unskilled/skilled workers already here, we’d get a different result?

We wouldn't get the socioeconomic 'ladder' stratified by race. Do you think it's good that Chinese (for example) and Somali (also for example) immigrants tend to have vastly different life outcomes after migrating to Australia?

 

[Bandwagon]

Its a factor, but I think its a more complex story than that.

For example, take this research paper on the subject that was prepared for Parliament:
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/6609740/upload_binary/6609740.pdf

When citing the causes of wage growth it states (bottom of Page 1):

''The major causes of the slowdown in wage growth cited by both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Treasury include the presence of excess capacity in the labour market (demonstrated by stubbornly high rates of underemployment); a steady decline in inflation and inflationary expectations; and a decline in the terms of trade since the end of the mining boom.''

It addresses the issue of declining union participation on page 18 and states the following:

Union density (or the union member share of total employment) in Australia has fallen progressively over the longer term from 41.6 per cent in 1988 to 13.6 per cent in August 2018. The Australia Institute has argued that a strong relationship exists between low levels of industrial disputation more recently and lower wage outcomes. However, a closer look at the data shows higher wage outcomes were achieved from the early 2000s to 2007 when levels of industrial disputation were also declining rapidly. A stronger relationship exists between the two series from 2008 onwards (see Figure 9).

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Then finally in the conclusion on Page 27 it states that:

''It is possible that a decline in bargaining power associated with declining union membership and lower rates of industrial disputation in Australia has impacted upon wage growth, but the magnitude of their influence is more difficult to measure. There is also evidence of periods where rates of industrial disputation were low but wages were growing relatively strongly. The combination of restrictions on when employees can undertake industrial action, protracted enterprise bargaining processes, ceilings on remuneration increases in the public sector, and movement of employees away from being covered by enterprise agreements to award coverage may have also contributed to lower wage growth outcomes.''

Don't get me wrong I see some value in effective and well managed unions that help ensure employees don't get shafted but I have also experienced dreadful union behaviour that has crippled the maritime sector at times. I have also never needed a union which means that unfortunately I can't draw on first hand experiences when thinking of the positives, so perhaps that makes me biased.

Either way, I take your point about the coincidence between lower wage growth and lower union participation but as shown above when considering causation rather than coincidence many other factors are arguably more influential.

Oh look, I'm not trying to imply it's the only reason, just that it's definitely a good part of the reason.

This is from 2016, so a bit old but still relevant...

38% of public sector workers were members of a trade union in their main job, compared to only 9% of private sector workers;

The mean weekly earnings in main job was $1,360, compared to $1,189 for those who were not trade union members;

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/6333.0Main Features5August 2016

Now combine that with the fact that whilst still low, public sector wage growth is far healthier than private sector wage growth, it just adds further to the correlation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-14/wage-growth-remains-stagnant-in-q2/11412228

I understand Unions aren't saints, but I also understand the union bashing narrative around how they have destroyed industry here is a crock of shit. We are a high wage nation, no doubt, but we are also a very prosperous nation, and what good is prosperity if it remains exclusively the domain of the select few?

Globalisation and opening up our markets means we are vulnerable in terms of losing jobs to lower cost states with lower standards of living. But why the f**k would we want to compete at that level?

Yet the whole "union bad" argument revolves around our in ability to compete at that level. This makes no sense to me at all.

At the end of the day I feel the balance of power and influence has shifted too far to the side of capital, to the detriment of labour, that's not just the decline of unionism, but right throughout our economy, and our government, and that's neo-liberalism's greatest gift.

 

[Bandwagon]

What an ignorant comment. Plenty of Australians have watched others race ahead of them over the past 27 years.

Yes, whilst the ultimate measure of success remains GDP growth, that will continue to be the case.

Imagine having a system where the disasters of this summer can actually be a good thing?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ronavirus-bushfires/11970506?section=analysis

 

[Gronk]

Housing affordability (for example) is still a fairly local concern I'd say.

Housing affordability is the price that you pay when you strive to be a dynamic global city.

There are no highly liveable, low unemployment, financial hub type cities that have affordable real estate. Supply v demand takes care of this.

The solution is Turnbull’s 30 minute city with multiple cbd zones linked by efficient and frequent public transport. He’s in an ideas man that guy. He should run for PM one day.

 

[hindy111]

We import workers to fill holes that Australians don’t want to do for peanuts but are also unwilling to pay others more than peanuts to do. Slowing wage growth is also supply and demand.
Richy Rich paying imports peanuts to build his investment properties for further imports on peanuts would mean his income would just be the peanuts he paid the original imports. Richy Rich would have to be a peanut to do that

Well sure, they have to drive Uber and deliver food to the wealthy westerner for $8hr to keep their heads above water as a 2nd job. I wonder if they knew this when first arrived. The guys I talked to never did. They hated it. Telling me how they are working 60hrs a week just to keep the family off the streets.

 

[hindy111]

That's a very black and white attitude. Ignoring the benefits of skilled migration and focussing on the cost of housing is very closed minded. Without such migration coupled with zero population growth we would be living in a very different country were job security is poor, consumer confidence is low and the well being of the general community is poor.

There will always be losers in this game of life (I'm starting to sound like @hindy111 ) but I assure you there are less losers in a economy which uses skilled migration as a tool for economic growth than there is in a stagnant low or negative growth economy.

I'm doing fine....
I have a decent income and skills. But I do see people and friends who are doing it bloody tough. And it isn't in there control.

 

[hindy111]

Housing affordability (for example) is still a fairly local concern I'd say.

What's ridiculous is if you cant afford to live closer to where the work is your not only punished with an extra 2hrs a day travel but $50+ a week extra in fuel and around $100 in tolls

Great system.

 

[hindy111]

And fix train fares. Again someone living in Penrith has to pay more to catch a ride to work cause? Oh it takes them longer to get there.....

Should be a flat rate for work.

 

[84 Baby]

We wouldn't get the socioeconomic 'ladder' stratified by race. Do you think it's good that Chinese (for example) and Somali (also for example) immigrants tend to have vastly different life outcomes after migrating to Australia?

Its no skin off my nose

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

And fix train fares. Again someone living in Penrith has to pay more to catch a ride to work cause? Oh it takes them longer to get there.....

Should be a flat rate for work.

Don't stop now. You're on a roll.

 

[84 Baby]

Well sure, they have to drive Uber and deliver food to the wealthy westerner for $8hr to keep their heads above water as a 2nd job. I wonder if they knew this when first arrived. The guys I talked to never did. They hated it. Telling me how they are working 60hrs a week just to keep the family off the streets.

Did they appreciate the tip you gave them for delivering your dinner?

 

[84 Baby]

And fix train fares. Again someone living in Penrith has to pay more to catch a ride to work cause? Oh it takes them longer to get there.....

Should be a flat rate for work.

Right so you hate the migrants working 60 hour week to keep off the streets because they are forcing you to live further away from your workplace?

 

[Gronk]

What's ridiculous is if you cant afford to live closer to where the work is your not only punished with an extra 2hrs a day travel but $50+ a week extra in fuel and around $100 in tolls

Great system.

Which is why Turnbull’s 30 minute city is the way forward.

 

[hindy111]

Right so you hate the migrants working 60 hour week to keep off the streets because they are forcing you to live further away from your workplace?

I don't hate immigrants. My parents where immigrants. They come when land was cheap and there was heaps of opportunities. Dad worked while mum raised us. He had no skills or education. Yet he did quite well.
I am pointing out we are brining immigrants in for different reasons now and they have it tough. Will the ones with no skills be able to afford properties? Lucky to afford a day at the beach once a month.
It is also bringing down others standards of living as and growth has stalled.

 

[strider]

What's ridiculous is if you cant afford to live closer to where the work is your not only punished with an extra 2hrs a day travel but $50+ a week extra in fuel and around $100 in tolls

Great system.

I assume most people have a 2hr trip to/from work and a $50 travel expense

 

[hindy111]

I assume most people have a 2hr trip to/from work and a $50 travel expense

Extra $50 for more petrol of what someone living closer would use.

Penrith to city is about 1hr 40 each way when factor walk to station etc...
I assumed 20-30min each ways normal.

 

[84 Baby]

I don't hate immigrants. My parents where immigrants. They come when land was cheap and there was heaps of opportunities. Dad worked while mum raised us. He had no skills or education. Yet he did quite well.
I am pointing out we are brining immigrants in for different reasons now and they have it tough. Will the ones with no skills be able to afford properties? Lucky to afford a day at the beach once a month.
It is also bringing down others standards of living as and growth has stalled.

So if we stop immigration we’ll be economically booming?

 

[hindy111]

So if we stop immigration we’ll be economically booming?

No. It is capitalism I guess. I do not have a better answer. I couldn't run am economy. I just think it's kinda bullshit.