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Expansion report

colly

Juniors
Messages
1,015

Report into NRL expansion concludes 17th team doesn’t add up​

Adrian Proszenko

By Adrian Proszenko

June 23, 2021 — 6.28pm




The introduction of a new Queensland NRL team would generate between $15.5 million and $33.7 million, not enough money to offset the negative impacts on existing clubs, according to a report.
Twelve of the 16 NRL clubs were sufficiently concerned about the potential impacts of a new franchise that they stumped up about $7000 each to commission a report into the matter. While there would be some benefits to the game as a whole – in the form of additional games and revenue – the research by consultancy company GEMBA found it wasn’t sufficient to offset the damage to existing clubs, particularly those in Queensland.



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A 17th club would bring in between $13 million and $25 million in additional broadcast funding, while non-broadcast revenue would increase by $2.5 million to $8.7 million. However, several clubs the Herald has spoken to believe that the status quo should remain unless there is a guarantee that an extra $30 million to $40 million is there to be distributed.
For a new club to be sustainable, it would cost $23.6 million to run and would need to make $10 million a year. It would also require what GEMBA describes as 148,000 “fanatical” supporters, as well as 10,000 members, to be viable. In order to do so, the new franchise would likely need to take fans from existing clubs, while there will be further competition for sponsors, players and other human talent.

The findings are of particular concern to the Broncos, Titans and Cowboys, who are already struggling on the field. The research states that existing clubs could lose up to three players from their roster if a 17th team is given the green light, further diluting talent and adversely affecting the quality of matches.
While Queensland players make up 25 per cent of all NRL players, a fourth Queensland team would directly compete for those wishing to remain in the state, amplifying the pressure on the existing sides.
The Broncos are one of the teams that could be adversely affected by expansion.

The Broncos are one of the teams that could be adversely affected by expansion.Credit:Getty
So concerned are some club bosses, that there have been discussions about engaging legal assistance to review the ARL Commission constitution with a view to finding a lever to block expansion. The Herald has been told the existing clubs don’t have veto power over the issue, but they could seek to introduce it via a special general meeting, at which amendments to the constitution can be introduced. However, such a development would require the 16 clubs and two state bodies to be in alignment, which is an unlikely outcome.
The upsides to expansion include an increase in viewing numbers of between 3 per cent and 10 per cent, a projected 5 per cent increase in match-day attendances and a boost of between 4 per cent and 7 per cent in television audiences.

However, the report concludes that the extra costs and risks don’t make it an appealing enough proposition.
“It’s been an extensive piece of work, more than 200 pages that speaks to a 17th team with a retweaked draw for an extra 12 games each year,” said Titans chief executive Steve Mitchell, who played a key role in commissioning the report.
“Out of that there is an opportunity to extract some commercial upside from the broadcast and non-broadcast revenue from sponsorship and wagering revenue.
“However, the total of that revenue, we have fears it doesn’t underpin the risks around the cannibalisation of fans in Queensland in particular and the impost on clubs.
“You’ve got to bring in 34 new players into the competition, there’s the dilution of the current playing group. We’re already at an unusual time in the game with increasing blowouts, so there’s risk there. And then you have inflationary [pressures], we’ve already got managers pausing player retention conversations because they want to see what this other team is doing.

“There are a lot of things we need to look at before we move forward.

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“This piece is about testing assumptions, the ability to look at two pieces of work and really digging into what this means to the game and the current shareholders. Because it will be hard to change it once we move forward.”
The GEMBA report has been forwarded to the NRL and the clubs expect the governing body to make its own findings available to them.
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,378
What are these 12 teams doing to grow the game though? A clubs charter should be more than just existing and providing TV content. If certain clubs don't want expansion in much needed regions like south east QLD then they should show how they are providing value to the comp as a whole.
A-freaking-men!

It's the height of hypocrisy to ask a new club to hit levels of membership & revenue from DAY 1 that many other clubs in that "group of 12" have consistently proved unwilling or unable to achieve.. and to expect all of those 12 clubs to have a permanent place in the competition as if by birthright.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,411
Yep, front up with the league's reasons for expansion, brush off the club-land self-interest & put the growth of the game first.

Some have accused him of being a dictator- well, this is one glaring aspect of the game where VLandys *really* needs to dictate terms.
Be interesting to see if he buckles or sticks to his expansion promise. He has always left himself an out so I suppose we will see just how serious the NRL and Vlandys is about expansion now he is going to have to face down the clubs who are clearly opposing it. Sadly I get the sense the new club may have to pay the price by diverting much needed start up funds to some sweetners for the existing clubs.
 
Messages
12,411
Titans are not doing themselves any favours. Last year they had about 7k members and were the least viewed team on TV, so the findings of the report would suggest they're not fit to be in the NRL.

Any goodwill they have in Brisbane is drying up fast.

If I was PVL I'd use the findings to merge Titans with Firehawks to become the East Coast Titans. Gold and black as the main colours, sea blue as a trim colour. Represent Eastern suburbs of Brisbane, Redlands, Logan and Gold Coast. Split the games between Lang Park and Robina.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,411
Titans are not doing themselves any favours. Last year they had about 7k members and were the least viewed team on TV, so the findings of the report would suggest they're not fit to be in the NRL.

Any goodwill they have in Brisbane is drying up fast.

If I was PVL I'd use the findings to merge Titans with Firehawks to become the East Coast Titans. Gold and black as the main colours, sea blue as a trim colour. Represent Eastern suburbs of Brisbane, Redlands, Logan and Gold Coast. Split the games between Lang Park and Robina.
Titans have a license, Vlandys can’t do anything with them. Time to do that if the nrl had any intention to do so would have been went they went bust. The fact they didn’t do it then shows it isn’t even on their radar, even if they could, which they cant!
 
Messages
12,411
Titans have a license, Vlandys can’t do anything with them. Time to do that if the nrl had any intention to do so would have been went they went bust. The fact they didn’t do it then shows it isn’t even on their radar, even if they could, which they cant!
They're playing with fire by undermining the ARLC. If they go bust again then the ARLC might use the findings from the GEMBA report to revoke their licence and give it to Easts Tigers or Redcliffe Dolphins.
 

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
5,276
Titans are not doing themselves any favours. Last year they had about 7k members and were the least viewed team on TV, so the findings of the report would suggest they're not fit to be in the NRL.

Any goodwill they have in Brisbane is drying up fast.

If I was PVL I'd use the findings to merge Titans with Firehawks to become the East Coast Titans. Gold and black as the main colours, sea blue as a trim colour. Represent Eastern suburbs of Brisbane, Redlands, Logan and Gold Coast. Split the games between Lang Park and Robina.

They're playing with fire by undermining the ARLC. If they go bust again then the ARLC might use the findings from the GEMBA report to revoke their licence and give it to Easts Tigers or Redcliffe Dolphins.
The Titans will be staying as the Gold Coast Titans on the Gold Coast as long as the Suns are around. If the AFL blinks and pull out of the Gold Coast, then the Titans could be in jeopardy if they haven't improved. The NRL's strategy on the Gold Coast is, keep them there to fend off AFL and hope they come good in the mean time.

Seriously though, you and I know the potential the Titans have and we both know how much of a joke it is that the AFL and NRL have the same number of teams in SEQ.
 
Messages
12,411
The Titans will be staying as the Gold Coast Titans on the Gold Coast as long as the Suns are around. If the AFL blinks and pull out of the Gold Coast, then the Titans could be in jeopardy if they haven't improved. The NRL's strategy on the Gold Coast is, keep them there to fend off AFL and hope they come good in the mean time.

Seriously though, you and I know the potential the Titans have and we both know how much of a joke it is that the AFL and NRL have the same number of teams in SEQ.
If the Titans were to create a good jersey design and stick with it like South Sydney does, then it would help people identify with them and accept them as part of the landscape.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,411
As far as these reports go, its 198 pages and pretty detailed in terms of analysis, whether you agree with the conclusions or not.
its certainly comprehensive! Some of the stats seem heavily slanted to tell a story and not sure of accuracy of some of the data but can’t say they havent done a thorough job.
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,378
They're playing with fire by undermining the ARLC. If they go bust again then the ARLC might use the findings from the GEMBA report to revoke their licence and give it to Easts Tigers or Redcliffe Dolphins.

View attachment 49903
Titans have been around for 15 years. They should have a larger following than that.
Might be just me, but it looks like that map is just arguing against Redcliffe being the expansion team.

I mean - if the majority of Moreton Bay residents are currently supporting existing Queensland NRL clubs, then obviously the current set of Queensland NRL clubs serves that area well enough, yeah?

Ipswich, on the other hand..... well, a new NRL club that appeals to there may capture that 38% that support interstate teams...

The worrying thing is the GC population is split 50-50 between supporting their own team/other Queensland teams & some interstate club.
 
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