2023-2028 next tv deal discussion

[The_Wookie]

Foxtel will finally grow a pair now we past the offers with non binding bidding. If Foxtel don't stop Seven having games on 7 plus it will cause the AFL subscribers numbers to plummet especially on Kayo. Seven have said they want digital content of what they show and threatened that if they don't get it , 'it's a deal breaker'. Seven plus will have something like 6 games a weekend. Someone in Sydney can watch a game in Brisbane, Melbourne ,Adelaide, or Perth all on Seven plus. This point if taken up by Seven having the digital content from all the games they (Seven Show) it will cause Foxtel to put in a sub par $200m offer for the measly offering that they get. Other things that Foxtel wants which Seven won't give up is all those home games, which is a discreet point from the digital content isssue. On the digital issue Seven will argue we pay millions and no digital content of games we show????? Seven says NOW that's a deal breaker. I cant see big bucks coming from Foxtel because all the AFL can offer is currently owned by Seven, ie Home State games, wanting to show such game on a digital format ie 7 Plus. Finally Foxtell wants a super Saturday, again the AFL will not be able to offer this. I can see Foxtel losing $$$ if they pay over $200m especially as Seven Plus case as cancelling of subscriptions of Kayo will grow as 7 plus will be able to show up 5/6 games per round. Up to now you could not watch a Perth game being in Melbourne generally, but with 7plus you will. So their is plenty of poison pills in this negotiations, some of which might even kill you aka Fox/Kayo really low ball the AFL, possible, yeah sure. Lets see the quality of negotiators at Foxtel they went good at corona virus negotiations and subsequent deal and held their ground why complaining about the SA<WA home games in the Ext Contract 2023-2024, BUT with the Seven plus digital play by Seven and the possible large loss of Kayo AFL subscribers ( which their is not as many as the NRL, I think Foxtel might take the axe to the AFL if they ignore Foxtels major conditions, especially as they pay the most.

KAYO NUMBERS NOW 1.3 MILLION SUBS 9/8/22
BROKEN UP BY 60% NRL AND 40% AFL GIVES YOU A NRL 780K SUBS AND AFL 520 SUBS
FOXTEL RESIDENTIAL 1.48M
So maybe Mr reds call over 'can the foxtel/ kayo withstand 500,00 leaving, the bigger question is whats the breakeven point Foxtel has to pay if Seven get their digital rights. I suggest high $180m pa. Anything less might be a loss in the account books, which after all Foxtel had to get a loan (200m) with off the Murdock family a year ago so it's tight. A bad deal with the AFL could just about kill Foxtel/Kayo in regards to broadcast rights for the AFL

Ok in the first place, games available in Perth and SA on 7plus wouldnt necessarily be visible to viewers in Melbourne without a VPN. Geoblocking is a thing.

Its far more likley that final shakeup wll see 7 will end up with a similar deal to Nine. 3 national games a week - Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoon, simulcast on 7plus, AND Fox. Thursday rates better than Saturday, so that should make Seven happier, the AFL has been reluctant to expand the timeslot to the full season but its going to happen, probably as early as next year.

Half the interstate broadcasts now are shown in Sydney and Queensland where they rate 3/10s of bugger all, the other half are shown in WA/SA...and 1/4 of those are already on delay. The league might try to compromise this by only showing away games on FTA live with home games on delay or not at all - which works for the league anyway as it will boost attendances.

 

[colly]

Ok in the first place, games available in Perth and SA on 7plus wouldnt necessarily be visible to viewers in Melbourne without a VPN. Geoblocking is a thing.

Its far more likley that final shakeup wll see 7 will end up with a similar deal to Nine. 3 national games a week - Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoon, simulcast on 7plus, AND Fox. Thursday rates better than Saturday, so that should make Seven happier, the AFL has been reluctant to expand the timeslot to the full season but its going to happen, probably as early as next year.

Half the interstate broadcasts now are shown in Sydney and Queensland where they rate 3/10s of bugger all, the other half are shown in WA/SA...and 1/4 of those are already on delay. The league might try to compromise this by only showing away games on FTA live with home games on delay or not at all - which works for the league anyway as it will boost attendances.

Agree, however it is easy to get a VPN it's free with Opera BUT it is long way down for Seven to show (only) 3 games nationally. WA Politicians and Kerry Stokes have teamed up to stop any home broadcasting, so I don't think Seven will pay $150's if they go down to only 3 national games. Seven get some Thursday games now as well as Saturday. I say again their is huge ego's and financial big plays to come. I don't see Seven giving up any favourable conditions and if forced they will go sub $100m. The AFL is caught between a rock and hard place this time. In fact i don't see the parties agreeing ( Seven and Foxel) thus these negotiations will go on, or in fact end till sometime next year, the AFL will be forced into this as all parties can't reach agreement. This time around their will be a loser it's either Foxtel enhanced and Seven seen as a loser or Seven plus wins and Foxtel is a loser. What the losers will do is too pay substantially less.

 

[Perth Red]

Agree, however it is easy to get a VPN it's free with Opera BUT it is long way down for Seven to show (only) 3 games nationally. WA Politicians and Kerry Stokes have teamed up to stop any home broadcasting, so I don't think Seven will pay $150's if they go down to only 3 national games. Seven get some Thursday games now as well as Saturday. I say again their is huge ego's and financial big plays to come. I don't see Seven giving up any favourable conditions and if forced they will go sub $100m. The AFL is caught between a rock and hard place this time. In fact i don't see the parties agreeing ( Seven and Foxel) thus these negotiations will go on, or in fact end till sometime next year, the AFL will be forced into this as all parties can't reach agreement. This time around their will be a loser it's either Foxtel enhanced and Seven seen as a loser or Seven plus wins and Foxtel is a loser. What the losers will do is too pay substantially less.

CH9 pay $130mill cash for 3 NRL games and Origin. AFL has a lot more ad breaks. Why would it be worth less than $100mill? I can see in this deal that Ch7 will keep 4 FTA games but lose the state based fta covg. This is a big bonus for Fox. They will add Tassie for more content. Telstra will continue with current deal of managing AFL's digital portfolio and stronger sponsorship rights.
$ value will be somewhere between $450-500mill if I was to guess at this stage. Largely driven up by the competition between two bidders.

 

[The Penguin #6.]

I can see in this deal that Ch7 will keep 4 FTA games but lose the state based fta covg.

That`d be massive though wouldn`t it because so much of fumbleball coverage and ratings relies on broadcasting home teams into home states. As we see with the NSW and Qld teams if it`s not their home team the viewing numbers drop off a cliff.
I `d love to see Ch7 squirm as it tries to work out which 3 or 4 games it would pick every week as it tries to please everyone. It has ratings crash written all over it.

 

[Perth Red]

That`d be massive though wouldn`t it because so much of fumbleball coverage and ratings relies on broadcasting home teams into home states. As we see with the NSW and Qld teams if it`s not their home team the viewing numbers drop off a cliff.
I `d love to see Ch7 squirm as it tries to work out which 3 or 4 games it would pick every week as it tries to please everyone. It has ratings crash written all over it.

It is but its a massive value add to Fox so if they stump up the cash to make it worthwhile for AFL I can see it happening. Fox know where their subscribers are and aren't, hence why they went hard at getting Broncos off FTA and another team into the Brisbane market, and why they'll go hard at building in WA and SA. They have big subscriber bases in Melbourne and Sydney but the other 3 main cities would be very low for them at moment I suspect.

As for 7 they'll be more selective and pick a Perth or Adelaide team v a Melbourne team most games they can I suspect.

 

[The_Wookie]

CH9 pay $130mill cash for 3 NRL games and Origin. AFL has a lot more ad breaks. Why would it be worth less than $100mill? I can see in this deal that Ch7 will keep 4 FTA games but lose the state based fta covg. This is a big bonus for Fox. They will add Tassie for more content. Telstra will continue with current deal of managing AFL's digital portfolio and stronger sponsorship rights.
$ value will be somewhere between $450-500mill if I was to guess at this stage. Largely driven up by the competition between two bidders.

I predict around 500-525 pa. with contra. Lock in reduced state broadcasts, night grand finals, all year thursdays etc.

 

[colly]

Agree, however it is easy to get a VPN it's free with Opera BUT it is long way down for Seven to show (only) 3 games nationally. WA Politicians and Kerry Stokes have teamed up to stop any home broadcasting, so I don't think Seven will pay $150's if they go down to only 3 national games. Seven get some Thursday games now as well as Saturday. I say again their is huge ego's and financial big plays to come. I don't see Seven giving up any favourable conditions and if forced they will go sub $100m. The AFL is caught between a rock and hard place this time. In fact i don't see the parties agreeing ( Seven and Foxel) thus these negotiations will go on, or in fact end till sometime next year, the AFL will be forced into this as all parties can't reach agreement. This time around their will be a loser it's either Foxtel enhanced and Seven seen as a loser or Seven plus wins and Foxtel is a loser. What the losers will do is too pay substantially less.

I just want to add it's early to go for a broadcast rights package for 5 years while not having started the extended contract. With Dill going soon I see a desperation and trying to get a 'big contract ' to improve his standing which may or may not withstand the blowtorch of a scandal if the $473m contract turns out to be bogus. The $473 relies on the SevenTV inflation form $117 this year to $190m next year and a new Tesltra cash contract that no one have heard of before. Andy Pandy needs to stand up give us the facts.... waiting... So I see a little desperation on Dill's part, when the full circle Age Reporters ( msm) and a cackle of Down Stream Stenographers (dss) credibility will come into focus if the situation turns out that their all been 'having a lend of us'.

 

[Wb1234]

It would be nice if the afl came clean about their figures rather than hiding it behind so much bs.

it’s all a bit like Enrons accounting

this is why they aren’t making profits and clubs have so much debt owing

covid ruined their financials and unlike vlandys who made cuts to repair profitability the afl just thought they could ride out the wave with minimal cuts.

who knows how much gws will need this year to survive after the year they have had. It’s probably going to be a record in terms of afl largesse

 

[The_Wookie]

I would be nice if the afl came clean about their figures rather than hiding it behind so much bs.

it’s all a bit like Enrons accounting

this is why they aren’t making profits and clubs have so much debt owing

The AFL have some of the most open accounts in sport. The AFL have reported broadcast revenue for ages.

Concise AFL Annual Report Data 2011-2021
Year	Total Revenue	Broadcasting	Contra
2011	$382,175,000	$167,250,000	$17,500,000
2012	$471,493,000	$225,577,000	$26,000,000
2013	$502,699,000	$240,674,000	$26,000,000
2014	$524,431,000	$248,396,000	$26,000,000
2015	$558,674,000	$256,602,000	$27,000,000
2016	$569,856,000	$264,154,000	$27,000,000
2017	$752,622,000	$381,028,000	$16,000,000
2018	$778,596,000	$391,504,000	$16,000,000
2019	$793,939,000	$397,439,000	$16,000,000
2020	$674,816,000	$352,670,000	$16,000000
2021	$738,137,000	$366,647,000	$16,000,000

 

[Perth Red]

Yep, unlike vlad who has hidden everything away so there can be no accountability. The first leader of the game to do so since it got its independence. Begs the question, what’s he hiding?

 

[Billythekid]

Holy walls of text Batman! A lot of you need to discover how to leave a space in your endless run on paragraphs, that shit is unreadable.

As always this revolves into endless pointless theory crafting of dollars which NEVER ends up close to being true. It’s clear that people are predicting based on what they want to happen rather than based on what is likely to happen.

 

[Perth Red]

Foxtel chief executive Patrick Delany has indicated the pay TV provider will attempt to outmuscle rival media companies in the battle for sports rights, after parent company News Corp delivered a record full-year profit.
News Corp reported a $US760 million ($1.1 billion) profit in fiscal 2022, almost double the previous year, on the back of $US10.4 billion in revenue. Foxtel, which is 65 per cent owned by News, said nearly one quarter of its total revenue for the financial year was driven by its streaming services: Binge, Kayo Sports and Flash.

‘Plenty of capacity to pay’: Foxtel ready to outmuscle rivals for sports rights

Foxtel has signaled it will try to outmuscle rival media companies for sports rights, after parent company News Corp delivered a record profit.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Perth Red]

'nearly one quarter of its total revenue for the financial year was driven by its streaming services: Binge, Kayo Sports and Flash.'

shows what late adopters the majority are!

 

[Wb1234]

Holy walls of text Batman! A lot of you need to discover how to leave a space in your endless run on paragraphs, that shit is unreadable.

As always this revolves into endless pointless theory crafting of dollars which NEVER ends up close to being true. It’s clear that people are predicting based on what they want to happen rather than based on what is likely to happen.

No I want afl to get zero

but 450 million is what I predicted

the biggest issue is the afl ceo is trying to con people into believing it’s currently 473 million pa

that’s the biggest issue people are talking about is trying to cut through that bs

 

[The_Wookie]

No I want afl to get zero

but 450 million is what I predicted

the biggest issue is the afl ceo is trying to con people into believing it’s currently 473 million pa

that’s the biggest issue people are talking about is trying to cut through that bs

Well the other issue is that the AFL CEO has said its 473m pa for 2023-2024 and people on Leagueunlimited are calling him a liar with no real basis for doing so other than their own assumptions based on data that no one on this forum actually has.

 

[Wb1234]

Well the other issue is that the AFL CEO has said its 473m pa for 2023-2024 and people on Leagueunlimited are calling him a liar with no real basis for doing so other than their own assumptions based on data that no one on this forum actually has.

Other posters have posted relevant quotes to media releases from seven and foxtel

the figures just don’t add up

 

[The_Wookie]

Other posters have posted relevant quotes to media releases from seven and foxtel

the figures just don’t add up

Half the figures arent even known, literally being guessed at.

 

[baselinepanther]

Its staggering Fox pay us so little when you look at all the concessions they get from NRL compared to AFL.

240 mill a year for 8 games a week for us
compared to 216 mill a year for 9 a week for them

we'd be at 260 mill minimum for 9

the 44 mill pa covering the different set up
seems fair to me

 

[baselinepanther]

Half the figures arent even known, literally being guessed at.

you just said the aflol are one of the most open codes when it comes to
" their figures "

many lols

 

[baselinepanther]

and yet in the last deal the pair were happy to pay $400mill cash to AFL compared to the $349mill cash Ch9/Fox were prepared to pay for NRL. Go figure!

good thing we have vlandys for our 43 mill profit & bad news for them they have gil the dill & their 43 mill loss eh