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Ladder Predictor

Kornstar

Coach
Messages
15,556
I reckon the cut off will be 26, The donkeys could possibly sneak in on 25,

I know most the commentators are rabbiting on about 28 being the cut off, but 26 is par, 12 wins, 12 losses and the bye, the Donkeys are currently in the eight and are below par with 8 wins the bye a draw and 9 losses.

With the Knights (9th), Sharks (10th) and Tigers (11) all on 18 points, for any one of these teams to push into the eight and force the cut off to 28 points means them getting 5 wins from six starts. I can't see it happening, but even if it did, it would be at the expense of each other, us and or Penrith, so one just might push it, but two just can't. More likely one or two of these teams will finish on 24 or 26 points, and the other/s below them.

Knights have Manly, Parra, Cows, Tigers, Titans, Penrith

Sharks have Rabbits, Penrith, Dragons, warriors, Raiders, Tigers

Tigers have Cows, Dogs, Manly Knights Dragons Sharks.

Can anyone seriously see 5 wins for out of that for any of them?

Next down the ladder are The Warriors on 17, which 5 out of six would see them on 27, but with their draw of Raiders, Manly, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbits, Raiders, they are literally no f**king chance of pulling that off.

Then there's the Cows on 16 again, will need six from six to make it to 28, and with one win from their last five starts, pulling six from six is simply not gonna happen.

Back to the Donkeys, their draw isn't too bad, with four games at home, one of which is the Storm next week, the others are Penrith, Rabbits and Parra, they also have the dogs and cows away, I can't see them beating the Storm, and I'd be surprised if they found the consistency to win their next five, stranger things have happened but I'm saying 27 points tops, and more likely 25.

Penrith are kinda in a similar boat to the teams below them, If they are to make the eight ( I think given their poor for and against they will need four wins so 28 points ) it's gonna be at the expense of the points to at least two of the Knights, Broncos, Sharks . They also have The Cowboys Roosters and Dogs.

TLDR: 6th to 11th is tight and there are too many games between those teams vying for a spot in the eight, with enough games against the current top five, for four of them to win enough games to push the cutoff past 26 points, bearing in mind the cut off is a 1 point better points differential than ninth,

Oh, and Parra, I reckon probably three and three and 28 points, leaving us at sixth.

If we can't win 3 from the next 6 i think BA should be sacked. Dramatic yes but with 3 more games at WankBest and also playing the Titans, not making the 8 from here is unacceptable!
 
Messages
42,876
I reckon the cut off will be 26, The donkeys could possibly sneak in on 25,

I know most the commentators are rabbiting on about 28 being the cut off, but 26 is par, 12 wins, 12 losses and the bye, the Donkeys are currently in the eight and are below par with 8 wins the bye a draw and 9 losses.

With the Knights (9th), Sharks (10th) and Tigers (11) all on 18 points, for any one of these teams to push into the eight and force the cut off to 28 points means them getting 5 wins from six starts. I can't see it happening, but even if it did, it would be at the expense of each other, us and or Penrith, so one just might push it, but two just can't. More likely one or two of these teams will finish on 24 or 26 points, and the other/s below them.

Knights have Manly, Parra, Cows, Tigers, Titans, Penrith

Sharks have Rabbits, Penrith, Dragons, warriors, Raiders, Tigers

Tigers have Cows, Dogs, Manly Knights Dragons Sharks.

Can anyone seriously see 5 wins for out of that for any of them?

Next down the ladder are The Warriors on 17, which 5 out of six would see them on 27, but with their draw of Raiders, Manly, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbits, Raiders, they are literally no f**king chance of pulling that off.

Then there's the Cows on 16 again, will need six from six to make it to 28, and with one win from their last five starts, pulling six from six is simply not gonna happen.

Back to the Donkeys, their draw isn't too bad, with four games at home, one of which is the Storm next week, the others are Penrith, Rabbits and Parra, they also have the dogs and cows away, I can't see them beating the Storm, and I'd be surprised if they found the consistency to win their next five, stranger things have happened but I'm saying 27 points tops, and more likely 25.

Penrith are kinda in a similar boat to the teams below them, If they are to make the eight ( I think given their poor for and against they will need four wins so 28 points ) it's gonna be at the expense of the points to at least two of the Knights, Broncos, Sharks . They also have The Cowboys Roosters and Dogs.

TLDR: 6th to 11th is tight and there are too many games between those teams vying for a spot in the eight, with enough games against the current top five, for four of them to win enough games to push the cutoff past 26 points, bearing in mind the cut off is a 1 point better points differential than ninth,

Oh, and Parra, I reckon probably three and three and 28 points, leaving us at sixth.
FFS, you should've put tldr at the top!
But yeah, good analysis. I reckon most commentators just go off the old system and fail to recognise that last year was probably an outlier.
 

IFR33K

Coach
Messages
17,002
If we can't win 3 from the next 6 i think BA should be sacked. Dramatic yes but with 3 more games at WankBest and also playing the Titans, not making the 8 from here is unacceptable!


If they can’t finish 6th or above from here they don’t deserve to play September footy
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
73,538
If we finish 5 or 6 i believe yes. Anything after that is SCG or ANZ i think.

SCG
facepalm.gif
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
28,032
If we finish 5 or 6 i believe yes. Anything after that is SCG or ANZ i think.
Surely the Riff would have to play a home semi from their “home area”? Which would also be Parra. Although this is NRL so anything could happen
 

Kornstar

Coach
Messages
15,556
Surely the Riff would have to play a home semi from their “home area”? Which would also be Parra. Although this is NRL so anything could happen

I think they can play it at Penrith in week 1 but the NRL may be able to move it to accommodate a bigger crowd.......I’m not 100% positive though.
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
41,833
Home game in the finals means home town. At least that's what it's been in the past.
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
28,032
Just looked it up. NRL changed it back this year to allow home side to “choose” ground in week 1, but club has to cover infrastructure upgrade costs. Nothing on week 2 & 3, but really the Sydney teams who could finish top 4 aren’t going to bring game to Parra anyway
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
78,603
Just looked it up. NRL changed it back this year to allow home side to “choose” ground in week 1, but club has to cover infrastructure upgrade costs. Nothing on week 2 & 3, but really the Sydney teams who could finish top 4 aren’t going to bring game to Parra anyway
They will probably change it back next year ... dont get too used to it
 

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
58,498
I reckon the cut off will be 26, The donkeys could possibly sneak in on 25,

I know most the commentators are rabbiting on about 28 being the cut off, but 26 is par, 12 wins, 12 losses and the bye, the Donkeys are currently in the eight and are below par with 8 wins the bye a draw and 9 losses.

With the Knights (9th), Sharks (10th) and Tigers (11) all on 18 points, for any one of these teams to push into the eight and force the cut off to 28 points means them getting 5 wins from six starts. I can't see it happening, but even if it did, it would be at the expense of each other, us and or Penrith, so one just might push it, but two just can't. More likely one or two of these teams will finish on 24 or 26 points, and the other/s below them.

Knights have Manly, Parra, Cows, Tigers, Titans, Penrith

Sharks have Rabbits, Penrith, Dragons, warriors, Raiders, Tigers

Tigers have Cows, Dogs, Manly Knights Dragons Sharks.

Can anyone seriously see 5 wins for out of that for any of them?

Next down the ladder are The Warriors on 17, which 5 out of six would see them on 27, but with their draw of Raiders, Manly, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbits, Raiders, they are literally no f**king chance of pulling that off.

Then there's the Cows on 16 again, will need six from six to make it to 28, and with one win from their last five starts, pulling six from six is simply not gonna happen.

Back to the Donkeys, their draw isn't too bad, with four games at home, one of which is the Storm next week, the others are Penrith, Rabbits and Parra, they also have the dogs and cows away, I can't see them beating the Storm, and I'd be surprised if they found the consistency to win their next five, stranger things have happened but I'm saying 27 points tops, and more likely 25.

Penrith are kinda in a similar boat to the teams below them, If they are to make the eight ( I think given their poor for and against they will need four wins so 28 points ) it's gonna be at the expense of the points to at least two of the Knights, Broncos, Sharks . They also have The Cowboys Roosters and Dogs.

TLDR: 6th to 11th is tight and there are too many games between those teams vying for a spot in the eight, with enough games against the current top five, for four of them to win enough games to push the cutoff past 26 points, bearing in mind the cut off is a 1 point better points differential than ninth,

Oh, and Parra, I reckon probably three and three and 28 points, leaving us at sixth.

I think Sharks are capable of winning out .They have the players.
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
41,833
I think Sharks are capable of winning out .They have the players.

They do, but they are playing poorly. , they've won one from their last six, and apart from not having to face the Storm, their next six is at a pretty similar level ,

I reckon they are pretty much done.
 

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