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Rumours and Stuff

Messages
19,102
Am I the only one who thinks we may flop this year?
My issue is that the coach is a one trick Pony and other coaches may of adapted to our playing style.
I like or squad but worry other teams will out smart us

Well of course we 'may' flop. I don't think there's a big chance of 2018 performance, but we could well end up in 9th or 10th if we get a few injuries at the wrong time of the season. There's not a lot of points difference in many NRL games...you need some luck unless you are massively dominant, which we won't be.
 
Messages
11,677
Why would house prices drop in your opinion?

The short version is because the economy is shit.

The new scheme by the government will provide a boost in the $600-750k bracket but it has a cap on the amount of people that can get it so it will run out and we'll go back to general economic sentiment driving house prices.

And look at what else is going on:
  • Negative interest rates are now a real possibility, with people starting to advocate for them here in Australia (albeit quietly, to begin with);
  • The government is looking to put a "cash ban" in, where you can't make cash purchases above $10k (has that already been passed?);
  • (That will make cash more useless, locking it into banks, where there could be a negative interest rate situation);
  • The banks have all started changing their T&Cs so that they can run bail-ins if necessary;
  • HSBC, for example, now has T&Cs that say that they are not responsible for losing your money even if they could reasonably foresee that they were going to lose your money.
Unemployment is hovering around 5% and not dropping below that, wage growth is stagnant around 2% and GDP Growth is seemingly stuck under an annualised 2.5%. Sooner or later this will take over sentiment again.

In regards to bail-ins - if you're not familiar with that, it essentially means that a bank can take your savings to keep themselves afloat, rather than getting a bail-out from a government etc. Because you are in essence giving your money to the bank as a loan (you are a creditor to the bank) and the bail in allows the bank to cancel debts it owes to stay afloat, that means it can take your money, which is essentially a loan to the bank. The Financial Sector Legislation Amendment (Crisis Resolution Powers And Other Measures) Bill 2017 was passed at the beginning of 2018 and now, with the banks starting to change their T&Cs, it starts to have some power.

3 of the 4 big banks have recently changed their T&Cs - not to specifically allow bail-ins but, rather, to allow them to further change their T&Cs immediately, without giving you notice, if they face financial hardship. Now, looking at what HSBC has done, you can see maybe why they have done this...

Now, a lot of the above is nightmare scenario stuff that might seem pie in the sky, however...none of it was there 12 months ago and now all of it is. Negative interest rates being a real "solution" for Australia, the cash ban and the banks maneuvering their T&Cs...the foundation is there for them to all switch to a new financial situation in the blink of an eye.

This wouldn't have been set if the future was all rosy.

Does it mean it will all happen? No, but it means the government and the banks think it's now a real possibility, and that's scary enough in itself.

Now, negative interest rates will help home owners (by giving them even smaller repayments) but it won't help the housing market (as no one will be confident enough to buy homes when everything else is going to shit.

Now, if the banks and the government have put in mechanisms for a radical switch to the financial environment, then one can only assume that the forecast for the back end of 2020 is not good.
 

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
58,498
The short version is because the economy is shit.

The new scheme by the government will provide a boost in the $600-750k bracket but it has a cap on the amount of people that can get it so it will run out and we'll go back to general economic sentiment driving house prices.

And look at what else is going on:
  • Negative interest rates are now a real possibility, with people starting to advocate for them here in Australia (albeit quietly, to begin with);
  • The government is looking to put a "cash ban" in, where you can't make cash purchases above $10k (has that already been passed?);
  • (That will make cash more useless, locking it into banks, where there could be a negative interest rate situation);
  • The banks have all started changing their T&Cs so that they can run bail-ins if necessary;
  • HSBC, for example, now has T&Cs that say that they are not responsible for losing your money even if they could reasonably foresee that they were going to lose your money.
Unemployment is hovering around 5% and not dropping below that, wage growth is stagnant around 2% and GDP Growth is seemingly stuck under an annualised 2.5%. Sooner or later this will take over sentiment again.

In regards to bail-ins - if you're not familiar with that, it essentially means that a bank can take your savings to keep themselves afloat, rather than getting a bail-out from a government etc. Because you are in essence giving your money to the bank as a loan (you are a creditor to the bank) and the bail in allows the bank to cancel debts it owes to stay afloat, that means it can take your money, which is essentially a loan to the bank. The Financial Sector Legislation Amendment (Crisis Resolution Powers And Other Measures) Bill 2017 was passed at the beginning of 2018 and now, with the banks starting to change their T&Cs, it starts to have some power.

3 of the 4 big banks have recently changed their T&Cs - not to specifically allow bail-ins but, rather, to allow them to further change their T&Cs immediately, without giving you notice, if they face financial hardship. Now, looking at what HSBC has done, you can see maybe why they have done this...

Now, a lot of the above is nightmare scenario stuff that might seem pie in the sky, however...none of it was there 12 months ago and now all of it is. Negative interest rates being a real "solution" for Australia, the cash ban and the banks maneuvering their T&Cs...the foundation is there for them to all switch to a new financial situation in the blink of an eye.

This wouldn't have been set if the future was all rosy.

Does it mean it will all happen? No, but it means the government and the banks think it's now a real possibility, and that's scary enough in itself.

Now, negative interest rates will help home owners (by giving them even smaller repayments) but it won't help the housing market (as no one will be confident enough to buy homes when everything else is going to shit.

Now, if the banks and the government have put in mechanisms for a radical switch to the financial environment, then one can only assume that the forecast for the back end of 2020 is not good.

Short version imo-

There is still a lot of people with a lot of money.
There is a lot of desperate people thinking they may miss out

House prices for that reason go up. Why pay $500 a week rent when a home loan is $550?
This is how the average person looks at it. This creates demand and prices go up.
 

Glenneel

Bench
Messages
3,428
We’ve been f**king awful for most of the last 10 years. Is it any surprise we haven’t developed a lot of really good players?
We seem to have done a lot better on the recruiting front lately, so hopefully the development side of things shines on through soon enough.
We have developed good juniors (not guns tho) but have failed to recognise them and they have gone elsewhere and become better players. So what is wrong? Why can some clubs continually develop good players and we can't? And the only player we've developed with genuine speed in the last 20 years is Bevan French and unfortunately he didn't work out, but still think with proper coaching he could.
 

Glenneel

Bench
Messages
3,428
Am I the only one who thinks we may flop this year?
My issue is that the coach is a one trick Pony and other coaches may of adapted to our playing style.
I like or squad but worry other teams will out smart us
To counter that Hindy I hope that Andrew Johns working with our spine will fix that problem. BA has evolved tho by going for bigger forwards who can ball play (which you, Ram and I have been advocating for years) but has he fixed our Achilles heal, defence?
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
84,160
To counter that Hindy I hope that Andrew Johns working with our spine will fix that problem. BA has evolved tho by going for bigger forwards who can ball play (which you, Ram and I have been advocating for years) but has he fixed our Achilles heal, defence?
I'm sure coaches know who the best players are. Signing them and staying under the cap is the hard bit, considering there are 15 other clubs also trying to sign them.

And the Roosters have won back to back premierships and their only big forward is JWH. Hard working forwards are the key.
 
Last edited:
Messages
11,677
There is a lot of desperate people thinking they may miss out

This is always the go-to play for housing, and they played it strong using faulty CoreLogic data last year when the bottom three quartiles of housing were actually going down.

Now that we are seeing a change in those lower ranges they will push it, push it real good.

If they play it right then it might even work, and we could see a "rebound" in prices that goes through to the end of the year.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
51,727
This is always the go-to play for housing, and they played it strong using faulty CoreLogic data last year when the bottom three quartiles of housing were actually going down.

Now that we are seeing a change in those lower ranges they will push it, push it real good.

If they play it right then it might even work, and we could see a "rebound" in prices that goes through to the end of the year.
Pick up on this!
 

lingard

Coach
Messages
11,135
@parra pete

86935627_2771882889568526_4072849952731037696_n.jpg


The players weren't all necessarily from NRL teams back then

That's a bloody good NSW team. I didn't know Gasnier did any coaching. Interesting.
 

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