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COVID-19

Tigerm

First Grade
Messages
8,905
We haven’t been in ages either.

The only thing good about it was the livestock parade. Fattest pig in nsw ( who is not a cop) to explain to the kids what bacon is.

Kids are horrified that meat comes from animals.

Unless of course, you are a young lady, over the age of consent, with the bulldogs visiting your school. Sick pups those boys. “ most stupid nrl players” parade would be good.
Wood chopping was my favourite.
 
Messages
15,387
Such a well written post. Informative and thought provoking.
The bush fires did show the best side in many of us. Fighting for and stockpiling unnecessary amounts of toilet paper etc showed the worst of us.

I live in hope that if the current crises shows we can sacrifice a little we can learn to not be terrified of taking climate action.Something that could lead to far more devastating consequences than we are experiencing now. But I guess that's a discussion for another forum or as Slow Mo would have it further down the track.

Thanks.

Its not to scare people, trying to stimulate thought, get people to be careful but also try to glean a positive.

I am glad us crowds are gone because it may save people from the illness and save lives.

Then we should help clubs who are struggling without gate receipts etc.

A bit less tribalism and a bit more care for others.

We can get back to the pristine competitive stuff later on.

The virus doesn’t care what club you support!
 
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JohnnyThailand

Juniors
Messages
51
It wipes out about 3 percent of people who get it.

Do the sums and unless it’s controlled, it’s going to finish off 230 million of the worlds population.

I predict most of these people will be taken out in countries with bad health services. Africa is looking very dangerous and parts of the sub- continent and Asia.

In terms of effect on the world economy, If anyone’s interested, in perspective, it won’t wreck it because the virus will come and go.

And I think that should be a year or two.

Love to know where your numbers come from. Because 230,000,000 people is 3% of the earth's population.

The population of Wuhan is 11,000,000 people. Less than 3000 people, or under 0.002%, there died after 6 weeks of a virus being allowed to spread with absolutely no control.

Weirdly enough, as is the case with humans, things don't affect everyone the same way. Some people won't even know they have it. There's video of an old guy from the Princess diamond saying his entire symptoms with the virus over 2 weeks was just having a fever for 8 hours. Others have said they experienced no symptoms whatsoever and only found out because they were force tested. The idea that this will wipe out 3 out of every 100 people on earth is up there with theories of lizard people running the world. The facts don't match it at all.


But what's really weird is that you then downplay the economic effect. The projected costs are barely in the conception stage at present.

The cancellations of flights to countries haven't even started in places. Most cancelled events wouldn't have even taken place yet. Most holiday cancellations would just be beginning. Supply chains affected by China's factory slowdowns are only just starting to see safety stock run out.

Remember in Team America where they'd joke 'this is 9/11 times 100' 'that's over 91,000!'. This is the time to say that without sarcasm.

Remember the effect on airlines from closing the US to air traffic for a few days? Two major US airlines had to be saved from bankruptcy by the government just from that.

Now scale that out to the world and extend it from a few days to 1-2 months. Some airlines are already asking staff to take 6 months leave with no pay. And these will be only the first obvious effects to the economy we see.

Hotels, bars, restaurants and cafes worldwide will be devastated. Anyone who survives off hospitality, whether its as a guide for Chinese tourists or a concierge at a hotel chain in woop woop, is in for a horrible horrible time.

The stock market has already taken a beating in line with other record downturns, despite the collapse of businesses not even beginning yet. Wait until major companies start going belly up. Then the investment sector will be absolutely smashed.

The wealth of Australia is nearly completely linked in to the perceived value of properties. Perceived value! With most Australians employed on a casual basis with no security, when our unemployment figures begin matching Greeces numbers no one is going to be paying a million bucks for a fibro house in Granville. Half the wealth of this country can disappear overnight simply by people saying 'it's not worth it'. Under the right economic conditions, that day looks to be coming sooner than later now. And we aren't alone.

Take anyone who works at a stadium selling hot dogs to customers, does security at concerts, sells koala dolls to tourists, parks cars at the airport, cooks at a seafood restaurant, organizes traffic at events etc. Their industry is about to be absolutely smashed. Anyone working on construction of new facilities for hospitality will likely be out of work as projects are put on an indefinite hold to tighten budgets. The government will have far less money to invest in jobs for new infrastructure and this obsession with 'avoiding a deficit' already means spending was limited.

USA and other countries were just starting to come out of the GFC 10 years later.

This won't be a 1 or 2 year blip. This is more likely going to be a generational economic disaster that makes the great depression look like the Reagan era. Corona virus is bad, and I don't want to underplay it (though 230,000,000 deaths.... Nah). But compared to the economic effects coming, it'll look like a daydream.
 
Messages
15,387
Love to know where your numbers come from. Because 230,000,000 people is 3% of the earth's population.

The population of Wuhan is 11,000,000 people. Less than 3000 people, or under 0.002%, there died after 6 weeks of a virus being allowed to spread with absolutely no control.

Weirdly enough, as is the case with humans, things don't affect everyone the same way. Some people won't even know they have it. There's video of an old guy from the Princess diamond saying his entire symptoms with the virus over 2 weeks was just having a fever for 8 hours. Others have said they experienced no symptoms whatsoever and only found out because they were force tested. The idea that this will wipe out 3 out of every 100 people on earth is up there with theories of lizard people running the world. The facts don't match it at all.


But what's really weird is that you then downplay the economic effect. The projected costs are barely in the conception stage at present.

The cancellations of flights to countries haven't even started in places. Most cancelled events wouldn't have even taken place yet. Most holiday cancellations would just be beginning. Supply chains affected by China's factory slowdowns are only just starting to see safety stock run out.

Remember in Team America where they'd joke 'this is 9/11 times 100' 'that's over 91,000!'. This is the time to say that without sarcasm.

Remember the effect on airlines from closing the US to air traffic for a few days? Two major US airlines had to be saved from bankruptcy by the government just from that.

Now scale that out to the world and extend it from a few days to 1-2 months. Some airlines are already asking staff to take 6 months leave with no pay. And these will be only the first obvious effects to the economy we see.

Hotels, bars, restaurants and cafes worldwide will be devastated. Anyone who survives off hospitality, whether its as a guide for Chinese tourists or a concierge at a hotel chain in woop woop, is in for a horrible horrible time.

The stock market has already taken a beating in line with other record downturns, despite the collapse of businesses not even beginning yet. Wait until major companies start going belly up. Then the investment sector will be absolutely smashed.

The wealth of Australia is nearly completely linked in to the perceived value of properties. Perceived value! With most Australians employed on a casual basis with no security, when our unemployment figures begin matching Greeces numbers no one is going to be paying a million bucks for a fibro house in Granville. Half the wealth of this country can disappear overnight simply by people saying 'it's not worth it'. Under the right economic conditions, that day looks to be coming sooner than later now. And we aren't alone.

Take anyone who works at a stadium selling hot dogs to customers, does security at concerts, sells koala dolls to tourists, parks cars at the airport, cooks at a seafood restaurant, organizes traffic at events etc. Their industry is about to be absolutely smashed. Anyone working on construction of new facilities for hospitality will likely be out of work as projects are put on an indefinite hold to tighten budgets. The government will have far less money to invest in jobs for new infrastructure and this obsession with 'avoiding a deficit' already means spending was limited.

USA and other countries were just starting to come out of the GFC 10 years later.

This won't be a 1 or 2 year blip. This is more likely going to be a generational economic disaster that makes the great depression look like the Reagan era. Corona virus is bad, and I don't want to underplay it (though 230,000,000 deaths.... Nah). But compared to the economic effects coming, it'll look like a daydream.

Good post, good points.

My model made assumptions about the entire world getting the virus, and then looking at the death rate according to the world health organisation. Glib and dark.

Say with the Wuhan issue, infection rates are low now, but I don’t think anyone can say that it is under control and it may be that millions of people do become infected and the death rate may climb proportionally.

One thing I will say about Wuhan is that the world is somewhat lucky that it started in the people’s republic because their government and officials have the capability to manage this thing like no other government in the world. It’s tough, brutal but effective and once they got onto it, their efforts have been above and beyond.

We are agreed as to shorter term economic pressure but your scenario doesn’t take into account that we should have a vaccine or cure in a few years at the most and also that the recovery rate is extremely high.

And, after the crisis, there will be significant economic recovery investment and growth.

People will talk about wealth etc, but there is also the question of its distribution.

The property market has been unobtainable for most people for decades and it needs a good shortening up.

We could save a lot of money by reducing all kinds of waste and favours to people who are already comfy.

I am not a socialist, but a soft capitalist. A role for govt, a role for unions, most woke stuff is just nonsense, plus very boring.
 

Tiger05

First Grade
Messages
9,162
Given their massive population and challenges, After a slow start, China is going well with it.

It appears China is handling this pretty well.

230 million is my submission based on the world population averages. It is a maximum or rough average based on deaths rate.

I really really doubt it gets to this level. There are about 5400 deaths so far. I don't see anywhere near that amount of people dying. It'll kill more people than the flu and if there is a big outbreak our health system will be under tremendous strain.

If effects the elderly, weak and vulnerable but it can take out younger people along the way.

Yep.
 
Messages
15,387
It attacks the immune system, so in addition to precautions, it might be worth looking into eating better and have a higher intake of foods such as turmeric and ginger etc.

I am not a dietician.

I guess we should be eating better without an excuse!

Italy is a complete mess, serious deaths but more elderly population.

We have no problem compared to our cousins in Italy.

I think it’s right the world tries to hibernate or slow down ( so far as possible) for a little while.

The nrl season will probably have be suspended for a month at least until our known cases get better ( hopefully no more people die or lose organ function permanently).

I’d be suspending the season for a month and go from there.

No crowds is safer, but players and officials still at risk.
 
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JohnnyThailand

Juniors
Messages
51
Good post, good points.

My model made assumptions about the entire world getting the virus, and then looking at the death rate according to the world health organisation. Glib and dark.

Say with the Wuhan issue, infection rates are low now, but I don’t think anyone can say that it is under control and it may be that millions of people do become infected and the death rate may climb proportionally.

One thing I will say about Wuhan is that the world is somewhat lucky that it started in the people’s republic because their government and officials have the capability to manage this thing like no other government in the world. It’s tough, brutal but effective and once they got onto it, their efforts have been above and beyond.

We are agreed as to shorter term economic pressure but your scenario doesn’t take into account that we should have a vaccine or cure in a few years at the most and also that the recovery rate is extremely high.

And, after the crisis, there will be significant economic recovery investment and growth.

People will talk about wealth etc, but there is also the question of its distribution.

The property market has been unobtainable for most people for decades and it needs a good shortening up.

We could save a lot of money by reducing all kinds of waste and favours to people who are already comfy.

I am not a socialist, but a soft capitalist. A role for govt, a role for unions, most woke stuff is just nonsense, plus very boring.

I love that you're looking at the economy and people's reactions in a positive light. I'm looking at the virus in the same way. Hope there's a lot more positivity towards both in the coming weeks and months.

I'm kind of hoping celebrity cases of corona and them advising it isn't too bad put people's minds at more ease about it. Even Dutton. Its far more a psychological issue in Australia now then a medical emergency.
 

Das Hassler

Bench
Messages
2,961
Some of you guys must imagine the whole world has access to quality health care... medication and the economic means to make choices for the own safety and of others...that doesn't even come close to describing the USA.
 

Tiger05

First Grade
Messages
9,162
Some of you guys must imagine the whole world has access to quality health care... medication and the economic means to make choices for the own safety and of others...that doesn't even come close to describing the USA.

The problem is the whole developed world may struggle with this if their health systems can't handle it. Most people will be okay. Some people will get really sick. Some of those people will die. A lot more of those people will die if the health systems can't handle the situation.

The virus mightn't be that bad but that doesn't mean it can't have a massive impact on society including the economy and human lives.
 

Das Hassler

Bench
Messages
2,961
The problem is the whole developed world may struggle with this if their health systems can't handle it. Most people will be okay. Some people will get really sick. Some of those people will die. A lot more of those people will die if the health systems can't handle the situation.

The virus mightn't be that bad but that doesn't mean it can't have a massive impact on society including the economy and human lives.



05....As much as some self serving politicians want to deny it the same community of people who correctly predict the exact movement and composition of far off heavenly bodies. ...execute the inchperfect movement of mademade satellites...rockets etc etc etc. ....well...they're known as scientists who don't base predictions on preferred outcomes....political desirability or fear. They don't guess...they know and the average intelligent person couldnt make their coffee. They KNOW what they're talking about. If you were told you needed brain surgery who would you trust to carry out the procedure? ...a clever mate who reckons he knows what to do? A politician with a funny hunch of what should be done? To second guess the majority consensus of the scientific community is simply naive stupidity coming from a normal person....nothing less than grose CRIMINALITY coming from so called leaders in charge of the wellbeing of their citizens.
 

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15,387
It’s almost certain that health systems won’t physically be able to cope around the world because of bad decisions about spending.

It might have been better for the military super powers to call a halt to weapons etc, maintain a status quo and then pump the revenue dedicated to that into health and education etc.
That’s probably the view of lay people and experts I imagine. Pilot and passenger getting safely home without an argument.

Otherwise, if we all can’t cope, maybe we will need to adopt the hard core Chinese model which seems to be working. People can stay at home for a time ( except essential services) and have stuff delivered or get a pass out.

Some towns in Italy at the moment. they only allow supermarkets, petrol stations and pharmacies to operate.

Monks are zapping people with temperature devices to see if they have a fever. Pray from home.

The market is just going to have to accept a decline for awhile. I’ve lived through recessions lasting awhile. Apart from basics, people don’t need much to live.

I’d ask the government to enter the market and fool around to make debt easier to serve for joe public.
 

Tiger05

First Grade
Messages
9,162
To second guess the majority consensus of the scientific community is simply naive stupidity coming from a normal person....nothing less than grose CRIMINALITY coming from so called leaders in charge of the wellbeing of their citizens.

What is the consensus ? I've read up a fair bit about this virus and it doesn't appear to be that bad. I'm not trying to belittle the virus either. It's not like the flu. It is a lot worse than that.
 

Das Hassler

Bench
Messages
2,961
The consensus?....the professional educated and emphatic advice of every federal. ..state and private health advisory body around the world plus for good measure add in RAND Corp...Brookings and dozens of other think tanks who have advised governments and the UN since after WW2....start with the World Health Organisation and work your way down. When you're a leader you surround yourself with people smarter than you and use their knowledge to help you make correct INFORMED decisions...THAT'S how leadership works in crisis
 
Messages
15,387
Bennett talking about isolating teams is a strange idea,

This suggests the season will be suspended soon.

I don’t think any court is going to punish anyone for breaching a contract over the virus issue, although we are in uncharted waters.

I think an indefinite suspension happened during the war years. Join the airline staff etc.

I wonder whether or not contracts will be extended or varied during the term. Players will default on loans.
 

Tiger05

First Grade
Messages
9,162
I reckon the season will be called off but hopefully we get to play today. I also think we may end up in a lockdown situation. We probably have to take greater measures to try and manage this situation.

It's a big thing.
 

The unknown

Juniors
Messages
2,495
I reckon the season will be called off but hopefully we get to play today. I also think we may end up in a lockdown situation. We probably have to take greater measures to try and manage this situation.

It's a big thing.

Warriors are staying in Gold Coast apparently, that makes me think it’ll go ahead lol. NRL is dumb
 
Messages
15,387
Round two is going ahead, they are kidding.

This is a close contact sport, it doesn’t get as close in any other sport except wresting etc or the Union.

New Zealand is leading the world. I congratulate them.
 
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The unknown

Juniors
Messages
2,495
Round two is going ahead, that’s pretty risky for the players. They are locking up towns.
Bloody minded league I’m afraid.

The league made a profit of $50m last year, we need to start investing this cash in lawyers and experts to Work on forgiveness in contracts done and fair go with broadcasters etc and....more importantly, feeding players officials etc.

Cases in Italy growing, mindless nrl, they will regret this.

Close contact is the way of the game.

IMO, the NRL is worried they’ll fold if they don’t go ahead. Until atleast a player or staff catches it where they’ll have no choice and might atleast be compensated by the broadcasters within good reason

The NBA, which is 100x bigger than the nrl is already conceding 100s of millions of $$ lost, and players are already in talks of pay cuts
 
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The Rosco

Bench
Messages
2,867
The internet is more dangerous than corona virus
Spot on, Front Rower.
What's the difference between this virus and: Asian bird flu, sars, and all the previous other asian flu's ?
The internet and the global spread of fear and stupidity.
 

WA Tiger

Bench
Messages
4,349
One of my biggest concerns is that Morrison is not a leader and not up to getting the decisions right and the timeline for implementing them right ...with this Virus ..Look at Arden in NZ ... Morrison to me is Really just a “happy” Christian (who unfortunately believe that nothing is too big a problem that god can’t solve it ) with a big mouth and bigger ego. But not a leader. He’s proved this when he backflipped on going to the Cronulla game this weekend with ...“due to the possibility it would be misrepresented if he did.” ...Geez
 
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