2020 R20 Sat - Sharks 28-38 Raiders @ Netstrata Jubilee

[Pete Cash]

It really depends on how cooked the team is. I just have to trust stick but I'll be grumpy if we lose by a point and parra loses

I hate losing anyway because I'm a big baby

 

[shear_joy9]

It really depends on how cooked the team is. I just have to trust stick but I'll be grumpy if we lose by a point and parra loses

I think this best shows how the teams feeling right now

 

[bileduct]

I think this best shows how the teams feeling right now

 

[The_Frog]

14 of the 16 grand finalists since 2012 finished in the top 4.

2 from 16 or 1 in 8 correlates exactly with the chance of a 5-8 team winning 3 games straight, were all games an even chance. But the second and third weeks they are playing better performed teams so the true chance of a 5-8 team making the GF would be considerably lower than 1 in 8.

For a top 4 side, there is a 75% chance of making the third week, so a 37.5% chance of making the GF, once again all games being even money. So I cannot for the life of me understand Sticky's thinking.

 

[Greenfields]

Stick is just haunted by 93.

 

[Mr Angry]

Our reggies have more match fitness.

Really sad no Pommie hooker, would give you a chance at the end if he was there.

 

[BadnMean]

2 from 16 or 1 in 8 correlates exactly with the chance of a 5-8 team winning 3 games straight, were all games an even chance. But the second and third weeks they are playing better performed teams so the true chance of a 5-8 team making the GF would be considerably lower than 1 in 8.

For a top 4 side, there is a 75% chance of making the third week, so a 37.5% chance of making the GF, once again all games being even money. So I cannot for the life of me understand Sticky's thinking.

We shouldn't even play finals. Just run the numbers & declare a champ shall we?

 

[Valheru]

2 from 16 or 1 in 8 correlates exactly with the chance of a 5-8 team winning 3 games straight, were all games an even chance. But the second and third weeks they are playing better performed teams so the true chance of a 5-8 team making the GF would be considerably lower than 1 in 8.

For a top 4 side, there is a 75% chance of making the third week, so a 37.5% chance of making the GF, once again all games being even money. So I cannot for the life of me understand Sticky's thinking.

Agreed

2 out of 16 grand finalists from outside the top 4 is probably overs as you say, important to note though only one additional non top 4 team has made a prelim in that time so it has happened 3 times in 8 seasons

This finals system is heavily skewed towards the top 4 as it should be IMO.

Compare that to the McIntyre system in the previous 8 seasons (2004-2011). Each of those seasons had at least 1 prelim finalist from teams 5-8 with 2009 having 2.

 

[BadnMean]

So outside the 4 has made a Prelim 3 times in 8 seasons. Almost 40% of seasons, this will happen... Doesn't seem that bad a shout, given that this is a very unusual season- a suddenly quicker game- an imperfect mini pre season, no bye rounds & Ricky is assessing HIS teams need of a rest now, vs their chances of beating top sides who have had far greater recovery on top of less travel all season.

There are more factors in play with an individual teams decisions at this stage than just raw data.

 

[Tommy Smith]

In hindsight Ricky has probably looked at the ladder and seen that a 5th placed finish will likely see them come up against the Sharks & Eels; which should see them cruise through to the Prelim final.

Probably not bad thinking IF it pans out that way and the Eels finish 4th.

 

[The_Frog]

So outside the 4 has made a Prelim 3 times in 8 seasons. Almost 40% of seasons, this will happen... Doesn't seem that bad a shout, given that this is a very unusual season- a suddenly quicker game- an imperfect mini pre season, no bye rounds & Ricky is assessing HIS teams need of a rest now, vs their chances of beating top sides who have had far greater recovery on top of less travel all season.

There are more factors in play with an individual teams decisions at this stage than just raw data.

The chance of 5-8 teams winning 2 in a row to reach the prelim is 1 in 4 (25%), if all games are 50/50. Conversely, the chance of reaching the prelim from 1-4 is 75%. Even if you lose to the minor premiers you are still a 50%+ chance against a lower ranked side. That is a huge difference and it makes Sticky's decision to rest players hard to understand. For his sake, you'd hope Parra get the job done.

So outside the 4 has made a Prelim 3 times in 8 seasons. Almost 40% of seasons

It's 37.5% of seasons, but only 9.4% of 5-8 teams.

Compare that to the McIntyre system in the previous 8 seasons (2004-2011). Each of those seasons had at least 1 prelim finalist from teams 5-8 with 2009 having 2.

The rather odd practice of giving the lower ranked side the home final in week 2 might have had something to do with that.

 

[shear_joy9]

Even if you lose to the minor premiers you are still a 50%+ chance against a lower ranked side. That is a huge difference and it makes Sticky's decision to rest players hard to understand. For his sake, you'd hope Parra get the job done.

but your team is beat to hell and no player has had a weeks break except for injury/suspension.

give the team a break now, face a weakened sharks team in week 1, then potentially the loser of 1v4.

it's not hard to understand...

 

[Sparkles 2001]

Interesting game this one

 

[The_Frog]

no player has had a weeks break except for injury/suspension.

Everyone's in the same boat.

If Sticky has done this based on his idea of the merits of other finalists he's a goose.

 

[Valheru]

So outside the 4 has made a Prelim 3 times in 8 seasons. Almost 40% of seasons, this will happen... Doesn't seem that bad a shout, given that this is a very unusual season- a suddenly quicker game- an imperfect mini pre season, no bye rounds & Ricky is assessing HIS teams need of a rest now, vs their chances of beating top sides who have had far greater recovery on top of less travel all season.

There are more factors in play with an individual teams decisions at this stage than just raw data.

So Sticky's plan is to ensure they travel week 2 and beyond.

Makes sense.

 

[Valheru]

In hindsight Ricky has probably looked at the ladder and seen that a 5th placed finish will likely see them come up against the Sharks & Eels; which should see them cruise through to the Prelim final.

Probably not bad thinking IF it pans out that way and the Eels finish 4th.

You just know this has one of the all time epic fails written all over it.

Imagine if Parra lose this week and then the raiders lose to the sharks in week 1.

 

[shear_joy9]

You just know this has one of the all time epic fails written all over it.

Imagine if Parra lose this week and then the raiders lose to the sharks in week 1.

if they can’t beat the sharks in week 1 then they don’t deserve to be in the finals

 

[The_Frog]

if they can’t beat the sharks in week 1 then they don’t deserve to be in the finals

The graveyards of rugby league are littered with the rotting corpses of teams that underestimated their opponents in finals.

 

[Proud2BeCanberran]

You just know this has one of the all time epic fails written all over it.

Imagine if Parra lose this week and then the raiders lose to the sharks in week 1.

You're constantly ignoring the fact that the team has some injuries. CNK, Rapa, Papalii, Williams and Bateman have all picked up knocks the past two weeks and need the rest.

At first I was very bemused at this and not impressed however we need to consider the chances of Parra losing and us winning is optimistic really. Factor in that this IS a guaranteed rest as opposed to an unlikely one in two weeks, I can see where Sticky is coming from. It also speaks of the confidence he has in the team to defy 'the data' to do well in the finals.

If the team wasn't so busted I wouldn't be so keen, but they need the rest.

Fact is if we don't make top 4 we have our sketchy form a couple months to blame, not this coming weekend.

 

[Proud2BeCanberran]

You're constantly ignoring the fact that the team has some injuries. CNK, Rapa, Papalii, Williams and Bateman have all picked up knocks the past two weeks and need the rest.

At first I was very bemused at this and not impressed however we need to consider the chances of Parra losing and us winning is optimistic really. Factor in that this IS a guaranteed rest as opposed to an unlikely one in two weeks, I can see where Sticky is coming from. It also speaks of the confidence he has in the team to defy 'the data' to do well in the finals.

If the team wasn't so busted I wouldn't be so keen, but they need the rest.

Fact is if we don't make top 4 we have our sketchy form a couple months to blame, not this coming weekend.

Ah ffs spoke too soon.