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OT: Current Affairs and Politics

Messages
11,677
Well what I've noticed is house prices are starting to take off again.
HJ was wrong unfortunately. They did not crash 20%.They are starting to thunder up again

Firstly, that's not entirely the case.

It's more of a K-shaped recovery at the moment, with some areas starting to experience slow increases and others remaining flat or falling. This can be state-based (Vic vs. Qld, for example) or suburb based (Blue Mountains slowly up vs. Campbelltown flat/decline).

Secondly, I called this when the government first floated scrapping the responsible lending laws. If they can get this done, and they can also get the Super as a deposit change done, then there will be some general gains for a short period but then the K-shape will return.

Lastly, the game ain't over, yet. Mortgage stress continues to actually rise almost across the board. People just think everything is going to turn out ok so there's a bit of confidence back but that doesn't mean everything will actually turn out ok. The fact that we're "out of recession" is largely due to government stimulus and that continues to wind down. Combine increasing mortgage (and rental) stress with reducing government stimulus and we don't do know the post-stimulus world will look like, atm (although, to be fair, there's more confidence than I thought there would be so if that holds then it could be not as bad as a thought).
 

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
59,096
Firstly, that's not entirely the case.

It's more of a K-shaped recovery at the moment, with some areas starting to experience slow increases and others remaining flat or falling. This can be state-based (Vic vs. Qld, for example) or suburb based (Blue Mountains slowly up vs. Campbelltown flat/decline).

Secondly, I called this when the government first floated scrapping the responsible lending laws. If they can get this done, and they can also get the Super as a deposit change done, then there will be some general gains for a short period but then the K-shape will return.

Lastly, the game ain't over, yet. Mortgage stress continues to actually rise almost across the board. People just think everything is going to turn out ok so there's a bit of confidence back but that doesn't mean everything will actually turn out ok. The fact that we're "out of recession" is largely due to government stimulus and that continues to wind down. Combine increasing mortgage (and rental) stress with reducing government stimulus and we don't do know the post-stimulus world will look like, atm (although, to be fair, there's more confidence than I thought there would be so if that holds then it could be not as bad as a thought).

Mortgage stress hey?
My first home was purchased in early 2000s. Interest rates where 6.5-7%
House prices since then have doubled. Yet having double the loan amount now equals only slightly more repayment figure at 1.98% rates.
Add to the fact peoples wages have gone up a heap in 17yrs I feel like I have it far better off. Sure the figure owed is more but I would say my income has increased atleast 50%

I call bullshit on it's harder now with how low rates are.
 

Kornstar

Coach
Messages
15,556
It was also interesting that pretty much everyone flat out believed it was likely true from the start .... but this time not so much

To be honest, i don't remember much written on here about it but this time it seems like there are a lot of Trump sympathisers.

I actually didn't care in 2016 and i don't care now, either way. I just find it funny how much is posted about it and how so many people seem to think that Trump is the good guy for some reason.
 
Messages
11,677
Mortgage stress hey?
My first home was purchased in early 2000s. Interest rates where 6.5-7%
House prices since then have doubled. Yet having double the loan amount now equals only slightly more repayment figure at 1.98% rates.
Add to the fact peoples wages have gone up a heap in 17yrs I feel like I have it far better off. Sure the figure owed is more but I would say my income has increased atleast 50%

I call bullshit on it's harder now with how low rates are.

Back in 2000 you weren't trying to #livemybestlife...

How real is wage growth against true inflation over the 20 years? Do we really have more purchasing power, irrespective of comparing our incomes in those two times?

For whatever reason, the money in/money out equation is not as favourable now as it has been in the past and it is getting worse.

***

On top of this, part of the reason house prices have held is we are experiencing lower turnout rates than in the past. However, DFA survey data shows that the "intent to sell" is triple what it was even 12 months ago. If that eventuates into triple the actual number of properties on the market...well, supply vs. demand is real...

Having said that, the intent is more heavily on the apartment side than the free standing side of the property market.

So, the question is...if apartment prices drop, what effect will that have on the willingness of people to buy and live in those housing types?

*shrugs*

As I've said before, the general information you'll find out in the media is largely misinformation or outright lies. They have an agenda to sell and they're gonna sell it come hell of highwater. Sitting underneath those MSM pieces are data sets that aren't favourable to a return to ever increasing house prices.

How that plays out is still up in the air (the government is actually doing quite well in holding the short term together even if they are selling the medium and long term up the river in doing so...).
 
Messages
11,677
SC denies Texas case.

Ouch!

Not sure what avenues are left for Trump, now...

OK, so had to dump the above post quickly because my iPad was dying. Back home, so I can do something a little more substantial.

When I talk about avenues I think one thing is really important - time.

We're now at the halfway point between election and inauguration, so long game judicial action is becoming harder and harder to bring to fruition. If anyone wants to take a new legal path...well, most of these start from the beginning so they have to go through:

File in state courts - lose - compile and file an appeal to the state SC - lose - compile and file to the federal SC and hope you get a hearing.

Time, folks. That all takes time and that is now starting to run out.

So, currently on the SC plate are the Kelly suit (still alive but won't progress without hearing arguments) and now the Wood suit (docketed but no agreed hearing, yet). I believe Powell just filed two and has two more to come imminently, but neither have been confirmed as even docketed (for consideration) let alone agreed to for a hearing.

New options, I believe, are now limited by time.

***

In regards to the Texas suit itself, it is important to note that this failed to progress because of standing, and NOT because of merit.

This means that the SC did not say "Your arguments are dumb and you lose" but instead said "Look, Texas, you don't even have the right to make this argument because we don't see you as having suffered any damages".

OK, so why didn't Texas have standing?

My personal view is something like this - even if the 4 states had have cheated (outrageously and obviously, even) then it doesn't matter to Texas because Texas still gets the same Electoral College votes and still has the same influence on the final election outcome. As such, their position was not damaged, irrespective of what the other 4 states did or didn't do.

And, to be honest, that's fair enough.

So, who does have standing?

Once again, in my personal opinion - counties within the states that were being sued (WI, MI, PA, GA).

One of the Texas arguments was that counties within a state were subject to different rules and that violates the principle of equitable treatment (or whatever terms were actually used - you get the point).

If one county followed the rules and another didn't, and in doing so allowed additional votes to that second county that shouldn't have been allowed, then that dilutes the votes of the first county that followed the rules and reduces their influence over the state result that decides the EC votes.

OK, that seems a fair argument, too.

BUT!!! this means that individual counties would need to take up the argument and then go through the process I outlined above - state court, lose, appeal to state SC, lose, get it to SCOTUS.

And we're back to where we started - time.

Does anyone have enough time to get through the loopholes to get to where they need to go?

I guess we have to wait and see...
 

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
59,096
Back in 2000 you weren't trying to #livemybestlife...

How real is wage growth against true inflation over the 20 years? Do we really have more purchasing power, irrespective of comparing our incomes in those two times?

For whatever reason, the money in/money out equation is not as favourable now as it has been in the past and it is getting worse.

***

On top of this, part of the reason house prices have held is we are experiencing lower turnout rates than in the past. However, DFA survey data shows that the "intent to sell" is triple what it was even 12 months ago. If that eventuates into triple the actual number of properties on the market...well, supply vs. demand is real...

Having said that, the intent is more heavily on the apartment side than the free standing side of the property market.

So, the question is...if apartment prices drop, what effect will that have on the willingness of people to buy and live in those housing types?

*shrugs*

As I've said before, the general information you'll find out in the media is largely misinformation or outright lies. They have an agenda to sell and they're gonna sell it come hell of highwater. Sitting underneath those MSM pieces are data sets that aren't favourable to a return to ever increasing house prices.

How that plays out is still up in the air (the government is actually doing quite well in holding the short term together even if they are selling the medium and long term up the river in doing so.


I agree on the unit side. Largely due to they are popping up like mushrooms all over Western Sydney. Many are poorly constructed and strata will be a rising thing as trades and costs of everything goes up.
And in the city currently there is an abundance available for rent. It is a case of take your pick. There also over priced.

Houses are a little more blue chip and solid. The inner ring of the city is full. You can not just find new bits of land and develop it. And eventually immigration will fire back up again.

If the market does shake units always fall first and the hardest hit. That is the ways it has always been. Most are still holding firm or only experienced small declines.

My question is.

Are you living your best life ? I had a Vegemite roll and a VB out the back so I feel like I am close to peak.
 

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
59,096
OK, so had to dump the above post quickly because my iPad was dying. Back home, so I can do something a little more substantial.

When I talk about avenues I think one thing is really important - time.

We're now at the halfway point between election and inauguration, so long game judicial action is becoming harder and harder to bring to fruition. If anyone wants to take a new legal path...well, most of these start from the beginning so they have to go through:

File in state courts - lose - compile and file an appeal to the state SC - lose - compile and file to the federal SC and hope you get a hearing.

Time, folks. That all takes time and that is now starting to run out.

So, currently on the SC plate are the Kelly suit (still alive but won't progress without hearing arguments) and now the Wood suit (docketed but no agreed hearing, yet). I believe Powell just filed two and has two more to come imminently, but neither have been confirmed as even docketed (for consideration) let alone agreed to for a hearing.

New options, I believe, are now limited by time.

***

In regards to the Texas suit itself, it is important to note that this failed to progress because of standing, and NOT because of merit.

This means that the SC did not say "Your arguments are dumb and you lose" but instead said "Look, Texas, you don't even have the right to make this argument because we don't see you as having suffered any damages".

OK, so why didn't Texas have standing?

My personal view is something like this - even if the 4 states had have cheated (outrageously and obviously, even) then it doesn't matter to Texas because Texas still gets the same Electoral College votes and still has the same influence on the final election outcome. As such, their position was not damaged, irrespective of what the other 4 states did or didn't do.

And, to be honest, that's fair enough.

So, who does have standing?

Once again, in my personal opinion - counties within the states that were being sued (WI, MI, PA, GA).

One of the Texas arguments was that counties within a state were subject to different rules and that violates the principle of equitable treatment (or whatever terms were actually used - you get the point).

If one county followed the rules and another didn't, and in doing so allowed additional votes to that second county that shouldn't have been allowed, then that dilutes the votes of the first county that followed the rules and reduces their influence over the state result that decides the EC votes.

OK, that seems a fair argument, too.

BUT!!! this means that individual counties would need to take up the argument and then go through the process I outlined above - state court, lose, appeal to state SC, lose, get it to SCOTUS.

And we're back to where we started - time.

Does anyone have enough time to get through the loopholes to get to where they need to go?

I guess we have to wait and see...

I agree on the unit side. Largely due to they are popping up like mushrooms all over Western Sydney. Many are poorly constructed and strata will be a rising thing as trades and costs of everything goes up.
And in the city currently there is an abundance available for rent. It is a case of take your pick. There also over priced.

Houses are a little more blue chip and solid. The inner ring of the city is full. You can not just find new bits of land and develop it. And eventually immigration will fire back up again.

If the market does shake units always fall first and the hardest hit. That is the ways it has always been. Most are still holding firm or only experienced small declines.

My question is.

Are you living your best life ? I had a Vegemite roll and a VB out the back so I feel like I am close to peak.
 

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