"Due a loss" or "Peaking too early".

[Grapple]

Is it just a product of the overly cynical society we find ourselves in or is their some truth to it?

I tend to think the "due a loss" is a rubbish theory that has no grounding in reality made by fans that ultimately don't trust their teams ability to succeed (I'll admit to using this kind of talk before though). In other words it's this tendency to think you don't deserve to have the good without "some" bad, which is also reflected in some people's betting logic rather than a form guide.

But surely the point is to win every game isn't it? And why wouldn't you aim to give your team the best possible position you could to ultimately win it?

I would rather see my team play consistent efficient team football during the season (10 wins in a row) - and have the confidence in them because of that - than hope for some miraculous run or "hit form at the right time". Not to say that a team can't get on a run and make a GF like Parra in 09, but surely that's the exception to the rule?


The "peaking too early" I can agree with, but only when it's either....

A) A physical one in which players have been going too hard too early in the season. This is pretty unlikely considering the training regimes they have to cater for this problem.

or

B) Teams figuring out your style of play and there's no room or experience for ad-lib footy if needed.

Thoughts?

 

[StormHi]

I 100% subscribe to the theories. I think if a team is on a huge win streak leading into the finals the motivation or hunger to succeed can be found lacking...... A loss or a string of losses can remind players what losing feels like etc.

 

[Grapple]

So you guys must be in pretty good shape then?

 

[StormHi]

Dunno about that haha it's still early days I was really happy With the grinding win we got over the titans a couple more wins like that and I think the preparation mentally and physically couldn't be better.

Ps Barba has been a pleasure to watch this season.

 

[Warmess]

I think where most people tend to come from on this issue is complacency.

A team on a winning streak could start to think the wins will come easy and start to write off teams. Obviously this stuff is up to the coach and players to not let that creep into their game, but from what I've seen, most ends to a huge win streak come when said team looks completely off their game.

Personally I think a loss in the last couple of rounds of the regular season would be good for a team who's on a huge win streak. It'll bring them back to earth, put the hunger back into training, and you know they'll come out firing the next time they hit the field.

In the end though, who really knows? The Dogs could win every single game for the rest of the season and take the premiership showing great form the whole time. Would put paid to the 'need a loss' theory.

 

[Cletus]

It depends on how the team has been playing. I guess this thread relates to Souths were they've had a few easy wins, then yes I think a loss will be good for them as it will make them realise they have to play better. If a team has been beating top teams then no I don't think it is good for them as it can be as a result of fatigue from so many hard games. I still think it's always better to be winning than losing. What I found interesting with Souths as compared to the Bulldogs is the Dogs seem to be using a few trick plays e.g. kicking for Barba early in the count when attacking that I thought Des would have saved up for the finals. Souths on the other hand don't seem to have anything which may be because they're saving plays for the finals, or they might just have nothing.

 

[dogslife]

I think we have to peak every week because we've been playing the benchmark every week

 

[Maroubra Eel]

I'm glad we haven't peaked too early.

 

[Noa]

1986 isnt peaking too early?

 

[HowHigh]

B) Teams figuring out your style of play and there's no room or experience for ad-lib footy if needed.

Thoughts?

I think this was a big factor for the Dragons last season among another things

 

[Loudstrat]

Alot less credence is devoted to injury - especially when it impinges on a players form rather than rules them out - than attitude. Winning form can be maintained by good pshychological mindset - playing positive football and knowing what to do problems arise. Experience gives that.

Also there id a factor that the more a team wins, the more attention it gets. Rival coaches will be picking the Dogs to bits looking for chinks in the armour. The more they search, the more they will learn.

Finally, winning can give you a comfort zone, and a loss can jag you out of that. I dont believe a team has to lose a game to extend a period of form. I have never seen a team go through undefeated in my lifetime, but I will definitely not rule that out.

 

[BunniesMan]

Expecting even the best teams to win EVERY game is unrealistic. I'll put money on the Dogs losing before the finals too.

How often have teams got to and won a grand final on the back of a 10+ win streak in the last 20 years? Not very often.

 

[Jono1987]

I firmly believe we're headed for a Bulldogs/Sea Eagles Grand Final however...the Bulldogs NEED to lose a game or two out from the finals. So they better hurry up otherwise they might as well look to next year.

 

[innsaneink]

Salary cap has seen REAL winning streaks fall by the wayside

 

[Grapple]

Alot less credence is devoted to injury - especially when it impinges on a players form rather than rules them out - than attitude. Winning form can be maintained by good pshychological mindset - playing positive football and knowing what to do problems arise. Experience gives that.

Also there id a factor that the more a team wins, the more attention it gets. Rival coaches will be picking the Dogs to bits looking for chinks in the armour. The more they search, the more they will learn.

Finally, winning can give you a comfort zone, and a loss can jag you out of that. I dont believe a team has to lose a game to extend a period of form. I have never seen a team go through undefeated in my lifetime, but I will definitely not rule that out.

I agree with this point. It's always assumed that because if you're on a winning streak you there's the danger of becoming complacent. Anymore complacent if you're losing every other week?

I firmly believe we're headed for a Bulldogs/Sea Eagles Grand Final however...the Bulldogs NEED to lose a game or two out from the finals. So they better hurry up otherwise they might as well look to next year.

Why?

Why can't they continue to win and build towards a perfect finish and have the confidence to win it all? Losing for the sake of somehow seeing your imperfections in hindsight is ridiculous. You can still improve each week by winning. You don't suddenly become stagnant because you're not losing games.

 

[seaeagle sam]

Peaking to early? Apparently a young man's problem, although I've been told there are 'exercises' which do help with this.

 

[Jono1987]

Why?

Why can't they continue to win and build towards a perfect finish and have the confidence to win it all? Losing for the sake of somehow seeing your imperfections in hindsight is ridiculous. You can still improve each week by winning. You don't suddenly become stagnant because you're not losing games.

That's not why I believe the Bulldogs need to lose a match before the finals. I believe the Bulldogs are clearly capable of winning every game up to and including the Grand Final. However I'm fairly sure it's never happened and probably never will.

This competition is far too close and there are too many games a season for any one team to continue winning consistently for long periods of time. Your team is going to lose a game soon, hopefully for your sake it isn't a sudden death match. A loss could even be the best thing that happened to a high flyer. Reassess and plug weakness ahead of the games that really count. For being a Dragons fan I've learned quite emphatically that the regular season means nothing.

 

[Grapple]

That's not why I believe the Bulldogs need to lose a match before the finals. I believe the Bulldogs are clearly capable of winning every game up to and including the Grand Final. However I'm fairly sure it's never happened and probably never will.

This competition is far too close and there are too many games a season for any one team to continue winning consistently for long periods of time. Your team is going to lose a game soon, hopefully for your sake it isn't a sudden death match. A loss could even be the best thing that happened to a high flyer. Reassess and plug weakness ahead of the games that really count. For being a Dragons fan I've learned quite emphatically that the regular season means nothing.

But why can't you continue to improve when you're winning? Why do you have to endure a loss - that might ultimately come from a bad refs call anyway - just so you can "plug the holes".

This is the point of the thread. It might be not be historically viable to continue the run through the finals, but what evidence is there that a loss is better in the long run than a win, especially when like you say, the competition is so close?

Surely if the competition is so close, then continuing to win against that competition means you're doing things right.

 

[some11]

Anyone want to look up the biggest winning streak that went on to win the Grand Final?

Plenty of teams have gone on a huge run only to lose the big one.

 

[Cletus]

How many in a row did Parra win in 2001?