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18th club, whose next?

AdelaideSharky

Juniors
Messages
438
I would suggest that is it as down to these 3 the ARLC would go for a 2nd New Zealand team based in Wellington. I'm not saying i would favour that, but i think that's what they will do. In my opinion i think the 18th club will be in Queensland and Cairns. Again I'm not saying i agree with it, but Peter V'landy's philosophy is fish where the fish are.
That flawed thinking got into the FFA (Australian soccer) and that gave the A-League the Melbourne club Western United and South West Sydney's Macarthur Bulls clubs that nobody really wanted.
 

AdelaideSharky

Juniors
Messages
438
It's common knowledge down here that Adelaide United wanted to move out of Coopers Stadium to build an AAMI Park style stadium in the city.

There's no way on earth that would ever happen unless the NRL wakes up and smells the coffee and puts a club down here (an expansion team not the relocated garbage wafflers in here wank on about).
 

ReddFelon

Juniors
Messages
1,483
I don't think the Crusaders even pull big crowds, barely above 12k... hows a brand new RL team going to do better?
I do want a second NZ team but I think it's more risky than people think

Crusaders averages are about 16,000. Lower than they were when they had the purpose built Christchurch stadium, right now though they're still a big draw.

So are their feeder clubs Tasman and Canterbury.

The only benefit an NZ #2 team might get is that by 2025 the new Christchurch stadium will be built. Fully enclosed weather proof stadium just like the one they have in Dunedin. Expect Crusaders crowds to climb with a central stadium that actually has cover unlike the currently one at Rugby League Park.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
45,613
If their eye is on Brisbane3 I cant see that happening by the next Tv deal, Dolphins will need 5 years plus at least to bed in and see what impact they have before we can see if Brisbane is ready for third club. I can also see the three SEQ clubs putting up a big fight against. If Brisbane 3 is their goal get used to byes for many years to come.

NZ2 I can only see happening if Sky NZ are willing to significantly up offer (but given they've just upped it significantly that's hard to see) and they can find some big money investors to cover the financial risk to the NRL.

Perth will only happen if we have a different leader by then and if the investors put a significant amount of cash on the table that includes a grassroots investment and development strategy.

Adelaide and Cairns/PNG no chance.
 
Messages
4,510
If their eye is on Brisbane3 I cant see that happening by the next Tv deal, Dolphins will need 5 years plus at least to bed in and see what impact they have before we can see if Brisbane is ready for third club. I can also see the three SEQ clubs putting up a big fight against. If Brisbane 3 is their goal get used to byes for many years to come.

NZ2 I can only see happening if Sky NZ are willing to significantly up offer (but given they've just upped it significantly that's hard to see) and they can find some big money investors to cover the financial risk to the NRL.

Perth will only happen if we have a different leader by then and if the investors put a significant amount of cash on the table that includes a grassroots investment and development strategy.

Adelaide and Cairns/PNG no chance.
I just hope it's not the bloody Jets, as that would mean 5 teams from Queensland will be named after NFL franchises.
 

cumbrian Mackem

Juniors
Messages
1,450
The 17th franchise was consolidation so the 18th must be real expansion with either Perth or Christchurch getting the franchise as long as they have money behind them.

My preference would be Perth but I wouldn’t be disappointed if Christchurch got the nod.
 
Messages
4,510
If what I'm hearing about NZ is true then it'll be a battle between West Coast Pirates, Brisbane Firehawks and Brisbane Jets.

There's no way the PNG/Cairns bid could work. I'd rather see the Central Coast Bears over a PNG team based in Cairns.

I don't know who the frontrunner will be, but I suspect the Firehawks are the more financially stable and viable option as they have assets, a large junior base and history dating back to the 1930s. There's generations of rugby league fans from the eastern suburbs of Brisbane who are connected with the Easts Tigers. It also provides a team on the south-eastern side of Brisbane to compete with the Brisbane Lions.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
45,613
Nothing against anyone personally, but the discussion last 10 pages highlights the kind of old Sydney-centric thinking that holds back the sport.
I dont think its so much sydney centric as myopic thinking tbh. I mean there's people advocating for another Brisbane team before we've even seen how successful the new one is and above Perth or NZ2. Not being able to see beyond our nose is a very RL trait!
 

xe_kilroy

Juniors
Messages
82
I dont think its so much sydney centric as myopic thinking tbh. I mean there's people advocating for another Brisbane team before we've even seen how successful the new one is and above Perth or NZ2. Not being able to see beyond our nose is a very RL trait!
Actually, that is more correct.
There's obviously the NSW-centric side of things, all those fans who see themselves as more important than the rest of Australia....and there's merit to their argument about how the Eastern seaboard can survive just fine without the "AFL states".
But overall there is a medieval or draconian thing holding back the league. Not just fans say chest-thumping about which region is or isn't important. But also the game's administrators, backers, writers, etc, who often resist change, think too small, aren't visionary, to realize there needs to be great expenditure to grow the grassroots around Australia, fight AFL toe to toe on things. It's a hot environment. They need to just place teams in the big cities, no ifs or buts, and fork out millions of dollars every year to form RL junior clubs all over those "AFL states", and just spend decades nurturing that garden. It's not gonna grow by itself.

There are also other areas of the game...the general rules on the field, and such, that also need serious addressing, but things often move too slowly, too much resistance, and often the old meatheads who are holding the game back.
 
Messages
4,510
I dont think its so much sydney centric as myopic thinking tbh. I mean there's people advocating for another Brisbane team before we've even seen how successful the new one is and above Perth or NZ2. Not being able to see beyond our nose is a very RL trait!
The problem is whenever I advocate for NZ2 I am told that a) Auckland cannot support two teams b) all the other cities are too small and c) the nation is struggling to support its Stupid Rugger clubs, despite RU being a religion. If that's true then how can we add another team to NZ that is fiscally viable from day one and won't require assistance from the ARLC?

I cannot see the ARLC bankrolling a new team.

Perth is a strong candidate. It has support from a WA Gov that wants and needs another tennant to fill its stadium, which is better than most of the suburban grounds in Sydney. Perth provides a unique time zone that could appeal to the lucrative SE Asian market if our administrators market the game properly. The WA public is very parochial and gets behind its teams.

There are a few question marks behind the Perth bid. There won't be any pokies to fall back on, due to state laws prohibiting licenced clubs from having electronic gambling machines. No support from News Ltd or Ch 9. The Western Force have a strong fan base and hold a monopoly on the small market of non-AwFuL fans that The Pirates can appeal to for active supporters. The public is fiercely supportive of its two AwFuL clubs, which will be operating at the same time of the year and have the media and business sector firmly behind them.

The consortium behind the Pirates bid has some rich blokes who are willing to fund the club, so it's probably strong enough to survive without a Leagues club, but the lack of one will put the team at a significant disadvantage. The consortium will need to put together a very strong business case and potentially require an upfront fee to cover any problems it might encounter. It's not an insurmountable challenge, but it is something the ARLC will take into consideration after the problems at The Titans under Michael Searle and The Knights under Nathan Tinkler.

The Pirates will be competing against teams from the eastern states that are propped up by wealthy Leagues clubs. I think any team in Perth will struggle during their early years, like the Gold Coast Titans under Michael Searle.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
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45,613
It's really hard to say re success of a Perth club short term, I do have some serious concerns about the NRL trying to build a footprint in an AFL city (or Union city) without investing anything in doing so beyond the standard grant. But if we ever want the game to grow we cant just keep adding clubs in NSW and Qlnd because they've got pokie dens. Hopefully there is someone with deep enough pockets and long term commitment to make it work in Perth, or the NRL wakes up to actually investing in growing its business. We are only talking investing around $3-4mill a year I reckon which is about 0.8% of their annual revenue!

Disagree re the Force, if anything the Wildcats are the cities biggest club outside of AFL. Force are only relevant as Twiggy has adopted them but they will forever be hamstrung by the ARU's poor performance in creating greater public interest in Union. Their following is largely our Sth African, NZ and Southern England communities. RL's is East coast immigrants, Kiwis and Northern England communities.
 
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Messages
4,510
It's really hard to say re success of a Perth club short term, I do have some serious concerns about the NRL trying to build a footprint in an AFL city (or Union city) without investing anything in doing so beyond the standard grant. But if we ever want the game to grow we cant just keep adding clubs in NSW and Qlnd because they've got pokie dens. Hopefully there is someone with deep enough pockets and long term commitment to make it work in Perth, or the NRL wakes up to actually investing in growing its business. We are only talking investing around $3-4mill a year I reckon which is about 0.8% of their annual revenue!

Disagree re the Force, if anything the Wildcats are the cities biggest club outside of AFL. Force are only relevant as Twiggy has adopted them but they will forever be hamstrung by the ARU's poor performance in creating greater public interest in Union. Their following is largely our Sth African, NZ and Southern England communities. RL's is East coast immigrants, Kiwis and Northern England communities.
The need for investment from the ARLC to support a Perth-based club is the biggest strike against the West Coast Pirates becoming the 18th franchise. Our administration does not want to financially support a new club like News Ltd and the ARL did with The Storm for 20 years. The other 17 clubs will be against a Perth-based team getting access to extra funds after The Dolphins were admitted on the provision they did not need financial assistance and could stump up a $10m entry fee. Our game is still run by the clubs, unfortunately, and they will not like the idea of a team in a non-heartland area relying on players from NSW, NZ and QLD.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
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45,613
The need for investment from the ARLC to support a Perth-based club is the biggest strike against the West Coast Pirates becoming the 18th franchise. Our administration does not want to financially support a new club like News Ltd and the ARL did with The Storm for 20 years. The other 17 clubs will be against a Perth-based team getting access to extra funds after The Dolphins were admitted on the provision they did not need financial assistance and could stump up a $10m entry fee. Our game is still run by the clubs, unfortunately, and they will not like the idea of a team in a non-heartland area relying on players from NSW, NZ and QLD.
yep, one of the main reasons RL will remain behind AFL and a big fish in a very small pond sadly.

Dont buy the news ltd investment in Storm argument, that was no different to any private owner spending on their club. As for ROI for the $20million NRL put into Storm, it would be hard to argue that wasnt a very good investment to make. It is literally the only club in the whole world of rugby league to be a successful expansion of the top tier of the game. That investment has seen the Storm become a bigger club than most of the heartland clubs and more valuable to the TV contracts than most. A sign of what could be for just s small sum of money in the grand scheme of things.
 
Messages
4,510
yep, one of the main reasons RL will remain behind AFL and a big fish in a very small pond sadly.

Dont buy the news ltd investment in Storm argument, that was no different to any private owner spending on their club. As for ROI for the $20million NRL put into Storm, it would be hard to argue that wasnt a very good investment to make. It is literally the only club in the whole world of rugby league to be a successful expansion of the top tier of the game. That investment has seen the Storm become a bigger club than most of the heartland clubs and more valuable to the TV contracts than most. A sign of what could be for just s small sum of money in the grand scheme of things.
I don't have any faith in our game's administrators to grow the game outside of NSW and QLD. It's all run by the clubs, NSWRL and QRL. The only way I can see the ARLC getting the QRL and NSWRL onside to invest more funds into unior RL in the Affiliated States is if it benefits them. That would mean giving Queensland and NSW access to players raised in Victoria and WA. The only way I can see it happening is if the QRL decides to move first to gain an advantage over the Blues in SOO.
 

Perth Red

Immortal
Messages
45,613
I don't have any faith in our game's administrators to grow the game outside of NSW and QLD. It's all run by the clubs, NSWRL and QRL. The only way I can see the ARLC getting the QRL and NSWRL onside to invest more funds into unior RL in the Affiliated States is if it benefits them. That would mean giving Queensland and NSW access to players raised in Victoria and WA. The only way I can see it happening is if the QRL decides to move first to gain an advantage over the Blues in SOO.
What we need is someone wioth the balls of Vlandys and the vision of Smith/Beattie! Vlandys has shown that you dont have to bow down to the clubs every time, but sadly he is very NSW minded and cant see a bigger future for the game, He's the classic happy to be the big fish man. All we can hope is he buggers off in a couple of years and the next head honcho has his resolve but is more visionary.
 
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3,948
Here are the top population centres in Australian and NZ that can reasonably or do host a professional RL, RU or AFL team:

Sydney 5M
Melbourne 5M
Brisbane 2.5M
Perth 2M
Auckland 1.5M
Adelaide 1.2M
Gold Coast 500k
Canberra 395k
Christchurch 380k
Newcastle 320k
Wollongong 290k
Geelong 220k
Hobart 216k
Wellington 215k
Townsville 196k
Hamilton 178k
Dunedin 105k

The obvious market for team 18 is Perth and they will be the ones that get the nod. Not just because of the population, but because of the investors interested in backing the team and the existing structures. V'landys may talk about not being interested but his administration want financially sound bids and Perth will romp it in when the time comes. Brisbane 3 will not be # 18 so soon on the heels of Redcliffe.
 

mongoose

First Grade
Messages
8,557
Here are the top population centres in Australian and NZ that can reasonably or do host a professional RL, RU or AFL team:

Sydney 5M
Melbourne 5M
Brisbane 2.5M
Perth 2M
Auckland 1.5M
Adelaide 1.2M
Gold Coast 500k
Canberra 395k
Christchurch 380k
Newcastle 320k
Wollongong 290k
Geelong 220k
Hobart 216k
Wellington 215k
Townsville 196k
Hamilton 178k
Dunedin 105k

The obvious market for team 18 is Perth and they will be the ones that get the nod. Not just because of the population, but because of the investors interested in backing the team and the existing structures. V'landys may talk about not being interested but his administration want financially sound bids and Perth will romp it in when the time comes. Brisbane 3 will not be # 18 so soon on the heels of Redcliffe.
Forgot Sunshine Coast which is 330k, but i guess the Dolphins have claimed it

Cairns is also 150k
 

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