I feel he is looking at both Wellington and Christchurch, but will settle for wherever the NRL feels the best area would benefit league, that said don't be suprised if its a cross town Auckland based club or bay of plenty regional based club.... surely they'd get Wellington as the prime area since there isn't much of a direct rival, but in terms of population and future planning Christchurch should be the location IMO
2nd Auckland club would be a big risk and would pretty much cannibalise the Warriors. Not sure they could fit in a market that already has 2 super rugby franchises and 3 NPC teams to compete with alongside the Warriors.
Club based in BOP or Waikato is too close realistically to some who would travel to see the Warriors anyway plus too small of a market to compete against the chiefs and 2 more NPC clubs.
Wellington and Christchurch are pretty much neck and neck for population but Wellington has the advantage of another million odd people in the surrounding provinces- the whole of the South Island is barely a million and travel distance is too large to get regular travelling fans.
Together Wellington and Christchurch have a solid population with surrounding provinces but it’d be like a team based in Newcastle and Canberra but on different islands. It’s unlikely you’d get Wellington fans travel in large numbers to Chch and vice versa, Chch public would possibly struggle to support a north island team but aren’t large enough to support one on their own.
Lack of success of the Warriors is often cited as a reason not to include NZ 2 but many Kiwis support the Warriors simply because they are an NZ team. In reality the Warriors barely engage the rest of the country outside of Auckland which leaves another 3.5 million potential supporters for a 2nd side.
The biggest challenge league faces in NZ is simply not being an option to play in the majority of schools, at Club level in the provinces it is pretty heavily entrenched with gangs in many places which is a heavy deterrent.