Discussion in 'World Cup 2021' started by Jim from Oz, Nov 17, 2019.
Ok so now we have all 16 teams sorted, when will they be announcing the draw from the 4 x 4 pots?
27th November. Two years out from the final...ooh synergy.
Do we know the final 2 pots
Obviously Pot 1 - Australia, England, Tonga, NZ and Pot 2 - Fiji, Samoa, PNG, Lebanon but there are conflicting accounts on the final 2 pots.
I thought originally it was World Rankings but the RLWC2021 site says that France, Wales and Jamaica are in Pot 3 along with the next highest qualifier from Europe (how do you decide that between Ireland and Scotland?)
Anyway World Rankings would have Pot 3 consist of France, Wales, Ireland and Scotland while the likely Pot 3 will be France, Wales, Jamaica and Ireland/Scotland. Wikipedia has Scotland as the final spot, I guess based on their superior F/A in the qualifiers.
So likely pots
Pot 1 - Australia, England, Tonga, NZ
Pot 2 - Fiji, Samoa, PNG, Lebanon
Pot 3 - France, Wales, Jamaica, Scotland
Pot 4 - Ireland, Italy, Greece, Cook Islands
Only problem I have with the pots is a possible worst-case scenario Pool of Australia, Lebanon, Jamaica, Greece.
Any preferred draws? England v Fiji to me looks like the best possible tournament opener. Lebanon will be weaker than their 2017 squad and away from Australia, hoping Ireland or France can get drawn with them for a better chance at a QF spot.
Also any news on the finals draw? Hoping its not set-up in a way to try and get the England-NZ semi like it always is.
Shrug. Such is the cost of a fair random draw. The sport needs to take a step away from contriving things to avoid floggings. There are very few teams outside the top 4 that could give Australia a serious challenge anyway.
At least the battle for 2nd place will be something. And it would mean the other 3 pools are proportionally of high quality.
Will it might seem tedious, it's the best and fairest way.
The format should always be such that if they win their matches, the finals is seed 1 vs seed 2, ie the 2 highest ranked teams. So you format for a 1v4 and 2v3 semi final (if results fall as ranked).
A format where the 2 highest ranked teams win all their games but can't actually meet in the final would be a bad format.
The best way to avoid this predictability is to have genuine competition between your top 6-8 teams. A loss by any of the top 4 teams is usually enough to throw it off.
Ideal for me...
England, PNG, France, Ireland (good matchups, rivalries)
Australia, Fiji, Italy, Scotland (strong pool most likely to stand up against Aus)
Tonga, Samoa, Jamaica, Cook Islands (polynesian rivalries feat. Jamaica)
New Zealand, Lebanon, Wales, Greece (uhh.. leftovers?)
I’ll post expanded thoughts later, but no doubt there will be some ugly fixtures early on.
But I think we’ll see some good, good quality from the QF onwards.
For what it's worth, the recent Rugby World Cup had 27 out of 37 pool games decided by more than 20 points.
Pool game mismatches aren't really an indicator of a successful World Cup
I agree, I wasn't saying we should go back to rigged draws, just that that particular draw would be rather disappointing.
To me trying to rig the finals to get the England v NZ semi is the same as rigging the pools. And we don't really know who exactly is the 2nd best team and its possible for all 4 top seeds to go through to the semis without losing. To me any semi-final combination of Australia, NZ, England and Tonga would be the same as any other, and the other 2 combinations (Australia v NZ, Eng v Ton or Aus v Eng, NZ v Ton) would be bigger crowd drawers and more exciting match-ups than the usual Eng v NZ, Aus v 4th team.
I'd like to see:
A - England, Fiji, Scotland, Greece (Big opener + England is the best bet to draw a crowd v Greece)
B - Australia, Papua New Guinea, Wales, Italy (interesting and rarely done match-ups, big opportunity for Wales to impress)
C - New Zealand, Lebanon, France, Ireland (best opportunity for France and Ireland to make the finals)
D - Tonga, Samoa, Jamaica, Cook Islands (same as you)
Fair, you could consider the top pot as all equally seeded and randomly generate the finals draw, rather than ranking them 1-4.
I don't quite agree with that methodology but I could see how it could be considered fair.
England v Fiji, England v PNG, England v Samoa, Tonga v Samoa or NZ v Samoa would be really good pool matches with one of those England options as the opener.
I love that we now have four even pools with the top two in each pool being fairly competitive. The game has come a long way. It will be interesting to see how Tonga handle being favourites in their pool, it is a different mentality that they will have to get used to.
I think Tonga will want to be in the pools against the likes of Italy, Jamaica or Greece. I think they might struggle not playing in front of their Tongan fan base. They flopped last time they were in the Northern Hemisphere (yes, quite a few years ago).
What would be a 'Pool of Death' for a Group A nation I wonder? Fiji, France and the Cook Islands?
I think that would be the best case scenario. Tonga v Samoa could sell out a stadium. Wales against Australia would be a throw back to 2000 WC.
Can I also say how good that we will have this all sorted 2 years out from the actual World Cup taking place. So refreshing.
Well well @Springs09 you might get your wish after all, in a round-about way.
The latest rankings have been released today with...
1 New Zealand!!
Debating the merits of them is for another thread, but if the draw is done next week, and finals format seeded based on these rankings in the usual way, then the most likely semi-finals are
NZ v Tonga
Australia v England
Australia just smashed New Zea oh whatever that's par for the course with rugby league I suppose.
Lets hope the pools->finals allocations are based off current rankings
So if we use the current IRL rankings
- 1 - NZ
- 8 - France
- 9 - Scotland
- 16 - Cook Is
- 2 - Australia
- 7 - Samoa
- 10 - Lebanon
- 15 - Jamaica
- 3 - England
- 6 - PNG
- 11 - Greece
- 14 - Wales
- 4 - Tonga
- 5 - Fiji
- 12 - Ireland
- 13 - Italy
I could live with this
If you don’t play games how do you get points?
Aren’t the pools going to drawn out of a hat or something?
This the underlying flaw in the system
Most countries play RLWC, qualifiers and Emerging Nations WC
This should be the prime source of rankings in the last 4 years
Some adjustments when you have cross region internationals
After this it's all in region. So if Europe want to play lots of games it should only be shuffling rankings within Europe
Someone needs to publish the mathematics
Playing a team above you and losing should not drop you down the rankings
Just like playing easy teams below you shouldn't move you up the rankings
Then how much you lose or win by needs to be considered e.g. a 10 point differential factor needs to be applied
E.g. if Serbia is better than X Y Z nations and Serbia got a beat by 80 then ALL those nations drop down 8 levels
I see what you are saying but like in any sport that uses a ranking system, if you don't play you don't accumulate ranking points. Rafael Nadal is the world number 1 tennis player at the moment but if he decides to not bother playing for the first few months of next year that won't last long.
New Zealand have won three of their four tests played this year and Australia has won one of their two tests played this year.
RL only plays one set relevant games every one or even two years. So tennis strategy where there are 10 or more tournaments a year isn't really valid
So accumulating points can't be applied when you have 40 in one region and only have 10 or less in the other regions
So it's better to apply a last win strategy in your ranking strategy
For the Kiwis it was 2 wins over the same opposition. So you use the last match or average the results not double them
Draw was supposed to be taking place on 27/11. But IRL since announced it will be delayed. Anyone know the exact date?
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