I wouldn't be so sure that they won't play all four quicks. I don't think they should, but I don't think they should have picked the spinner they have either.
What you have to remember though is that the SCG is not the pitch it was in the 80's when AB could rout the might of the Windies with his left arm orthos or when Murray Bennett and Dutchy Holland would be called up to win a test (usually a dead rubber after we'd lost the series). It is still our most spin-friendly pitch, but not that much more than Adelaide. Especially in the last 5 years it's been much more pace friendly. The only 10-fer by a spinner in the last decade was Kumble's 12 in Tugga's last test back in 04. Macgilla has a 9, 8, and a couple of 7-fers along with Kumble's 8-fer in 08 and Kaneria's 8-fer in 05. But other than Haurie's 6 against the Pakis last year Kumble in 08 was the only real spinner getting a bag full in the last 5 years. That's 2 spinners taking more than 5 for the match in 06-10, against 10 spinners bags of 6 or more in the 5 years before that (01-10).
The other point to note is that the list of good spinning performances is dominated by wrist spin. Of all the guys who have taken more than 5 for a match in the last decade in Sydney only Hauritz and Ray Price bowl finger spin. Murali took 5/157 in 05, Boje 4/78 back in 02, Harris 4/147 in 09, and Singh 4/200 in 08. Swann might be good enough to break that trend, but it's a big ask to expect Beer will. As a local and leggie Smith is far more likely to take a haul in Sydney.
In the last 5 years Lee (twice), Asif, Siddle, Bollinger and McGrath have all returned 6-fer or better. Quicks have taken 113 wickets @ 33.57 in the last 5 years against only 46 wickets @ 41.30 for the spinners. You need a spinner in Sydney (preferably a wristie) but the quicks are going to take the bulk of the wickets. The fact we've had a stack of rain this summer will probably make the pitch more pace friendly than normal.
I'd back Hilfenhaus or Bollinger to cause more problems for the Poms even on the 5th day than Beer. That being so I reckon it's not that strange to think they'll strongly consider letting Beer serve the drinks again. If the pitch is at all green on day one Beer won't get a run.
I wonder if Aust cricket is heading the way of the Windies - I don't actually think that, but there are signs - but Aussie fans have the most amazing blinkers and can't see what everyone else can... you've had your arses handed to you by a team playing good fundamental cricket, built on hard work and good technical abilities... you've been out-selected, out coached, out captained, and out-played... Perth was an abberration, there will be others - probably just enough to give you hope that you're on the right track
The main one is the huge and overwhelming arrogance that your next generation will be superstars - when the clear evidence is that the likes of Hughes, Smith, Johnson, Hilfenhaus, Hauritiz etc will be flighty inconsistent performers at best - all have fundamental issues with their technique, suggesting something has gone profoundly wrong with your developmental systems, or the advent oif 20:20 has allowed kids with poor techniques to star and be left to what works for them...
Unlike the Windies we have a larger population base - Windies were always going to run into trouble after getting a freakish 30 odd years of players from such a small population (even when all combined).I wonder if Aust cricket is heading the way of the Windies - I don't actually think that, but there are signs - but Aussie fans have the most amazing blinkers and can't see what everyone else can... you've had your arses handed to you by a team playing good fundamental cricket, built on hard work and good technical abilities... you've been out-selected, out coached, out captained, and out-played... Perth was an abberration, there will be others - probably just enough to give you hope that you're on the right track
The main one is the huge and overwhelming arrogance that your next generation will be superstars - when the clear evidence is that the likes of Hughes, Smith, Johnson, Hilfenhaus, Hauritiz etc will be flighty inconsistent performers at best - all have fundamental issues with their technique, suggesting something has gone profoundly wrong with your developmental systems, or the advent oif 20:20 has allowed kids with poor techniques to star and be left to what works for them...
If anyone HUghes reminds me of Micahel Slater
I agree on the population thing - you'll probably not slip below 5-6 in the rankings... the population is impt, which is why I don't get the NZ bagging that goes on here - we have a tiny population, and cricket is not the major sport (nor is league)
I am not at all convinced by Hughes and Smith - time will tell, but to me many better players than them have been mediocre at test cricket... Hughes has a different game, but could be your answer to Matthew Sinclair
By the usual 3 or 4 suspects?
Flower, a hugely respected former Zimbabwe batsman, appears like a Godfather over the England side, working out his strategies and speaking simply and sternly. Nielsen is more like a mate to the Australians than a task master, a friend on the training paddock and a sounding board, rather than a master tactician or disciplinarian.
Nielsen has been in the job since replacing John Buchanan in 2007, when Australia were the best in every format but Twenty20, and keeps gaining new contracts despite not having any major trophies since beating South Africa early in 2009. (Australia won the Champions Trophy later that year but it has become a minor tournament.) Before the summer his deal was extended to after the 2013 Ashes series. Nielsen has never been part of a side that has won the urn, overseeing the 2009 and 2010-11 campaigns in which the same mistakes have occurred under pressure.
After the Melbourne defeat, which ensured England retained the trophy, he was pressed on whether he was doing a good job as coach. "I'm probably the wrong person to ask in some regards," he said. "It's hard for me to sit here and say I'm not doing a good job -- I believe I am. I believe I'm doing everything in my ability with my staff and the playing group to perform at the highest level that we can."
In his public discussions Nielsen, 42, talks a lot without saying much. He likes players "to execute their skills" and perform in the "critical moments". There are "big challenges" in which the guys need to "maintain their focus".
Those close to the team insist Nielsen brings huge value to the squad. James Sutherland, Cricket Australia's chief executive, is a strong supporter, believing in his technical knowledge and man-management abilities. Greg Chappell, the selector, took Nielsen on as an assistant at South Australia in 1999. When Chappell has been watching training over the past month he seems desperate to want to take over. There are experts everywhere but the success has disappeared. For so long the innovators, Australia are now battling to catch up.