AFL Round 3 2003

[CyberKev]

14 from 16 is a strong start to the season, but it can all go pear-shaped very quickly...

Essendon (36 pts) vs Carlton [MCG]

Sheedy has started in on the head games this week, which is usually a bad omen for the boorish Bombers, but it would be a major surprise to see them beaten here. Carlton pushed Collingwood to the limit last week and will gradually improve throughout the season, but the Bombers still have too much class among its shrinking core group to be seriously troubled tonight.

Collingwood (23 pts) vs Geelong [MCG]

The Magpies are certainly over-rated and will feel nervous here, as it has been quite a few years since they've beaten Geelong. If the Cats can get it together they will win this game, but they've looked ordinary thus far and I believe they can genuinely challenge for the wooden spoon in 2003. Interestingly enough, Collingwood is proving the weakest side in the comp for getting inside its attacking fifty while Geelong is close to the best in this area. The marked disparity in the ladder positions gives some indication of how much better Collingwood is exploiting its opportunities and I expect them to be too strong overall tomorrow.

West Coast (54 pts) vs St Kilda [Subiaco]

West Coast gave a good show against Hawthorn last week, but were always playing catch-up. If they can sort out their attack structure they'll be all over the Saints here, particularly as I expect the Eagles to win well out of the midfield. St Kilda have more young talent than anybody and they stunned hot favourite Adelaide, when they bolted clear in the first half last week. The youngsters waned badly as the match wore on, however, and the club was barely able to hang-on for the upset. Fremantle was the only side to beat West Coast in Perth last year and I expect them to be similarly tough there this year.

Kangaroos vs Brisbane (20 pts) [Telstra Dome]

There's no shortage of willing punters queing up to back the Kangaroos this week, and the Lions do look slightly vulnerable with their two key forwards missing. Scarily enough, it still looks a mighty strong line-up and one expects the Lions to get a vast majority of the ball out of the centre. Collingwood showed that this could be negatedwhen the Lions forward set-up was struggling, but I just don't think the Roos have the attacking potency to outscore the champs.

Port Adelaide (28 pts) vs Hawthorn[AAMI Stadium]

Hawthorn has looked steady and solid over the opening games, but this will not be enough to get them home here. Port worked Brisbane worryingly close last week and a repeat of that sort of form will propel them to their first win for 2003. Hawthorn is still missing its two key forwards, but Port will also be without a couple of key players in Tredrea and Francou. Hawthorn must maintain its aggressive tackling approach and hope that Port has another weak night at ground level. Port almost invariably touches-up Hawthorn of late, however, and they should be too good here.

Melbourne (8 pts) vs Western Bulldogs [Telstra Dome]

Almost a toss of the coin job and I was tempted to opt for the Bulldogs. Its no secret that Melbourne looks desperately insipid when Neitz is successfully held and this will be the key to Western's game. Neitz is so good that this is not always easy to do, however, and I like the look of Melbourne's midfield set-up better than the Hounds at the moment. The Bulldogs have a tendency of letting too much ball inside their own fifty and it will surely be curtains if they do so on Sunday.

Sydney vs Adelaide (30 pts) [SCG]

Adelaide's burgeoning reputation as a premiership prospect took a battering at the hands of the Saints last weekend. Carey was worse than dismal and will be out here with a hamstring injury. Sydney is a painfully average side with a dismal conversion rate inside fifty and if the Crows play anything near their best then it'll be all over red rover. Given the huge blow to their pride with last week's humbling effort, you can expect the Crows to come out fierce here.

Richmond vs Fremantle (14 pts) [MCG]

Both of these sides got on the winners list without looking impressive last week. Only mad dogs and Englishman would normally tip Fremantle to win a game in Melbourne, but this isn't a normal situation. Richmond is ever vulnerable without Richo and the continuing absence of Ottens only reinforces this fragility. The Freo side looks stronger on paper and will be hell bent on getting its first win in Victoria since massively upsetting Hawthorn in 2001 (it still bloody hurts). New coach Connelly is doing good things with the Dockers and I have the gut feeling that they can roll a flat looking Tigers side on Sunday.

CyberKev

 

[imported_eels fan...]

Late yes but give me the Dogs over Melbourne & I'll agree with you on the rest. Though I'm not convinced Sydney are shot... yet.

Good job on keeping these writings going this year, it's always something I like to read. Plus you now give it, if somewhat softly, to Richmond so your also progressing with your train of thought...

 

[CyberKev]

Eels Fan

Writing about AFL on this site is a thankless and seemingly futile exercise, but its nice to know that I've got one appreciative reader... I guess that means that I'm writing for a niche market... Please don't bugger off anywhere, Old Son!

At any rate, its helpful to me regardless of readership numbers, as it helps me think through the games in a more considered fashion. If you try and do this on a full-on AFL site like BIGFOOTY its almost impossible not to get sucked-in by the parochial nature of the place, which almost compels you to write to your own biases.

I try to avoid that here, although the odd pro-Hawthorn and/or anti Carlton/Essendon/Collingwood comment will still slip through the cracks in my thinking. When I won the mountain bike ($1500 in reality, but it quickly transmogrified into a KHS with front suspension) in the tipping comp of 2000, I did so because I was able to successfully remove much of the bias from my tipping. You've really got to ask yourself, if I was forced at gunpoint to put a $1000 on this game, would I really be backing this side so readily?

Good luck to the Hounds this arvo... It could go either way and I expect they'll be into the match up to their ears.

CyberKev

 

[Ms.Storm]

Hi Kev
Well you have a fan in me...here...though I must say, I have really gone off afl to a big degree...truly, I have gone for rugby league, hook line and sinker now and afl has just about lost me....even though I still purchase my membership to the Dees, through loyalty and I still like to maintain an interest in afl.

I went to the Demons vs Dogs game and was thoroughly bored, but enjoyed the company of my friends because I promised them I would attend as they came with me to the previous night's game at Olympic Park.

Anyway, keep up the good work with your afl and people do read it..or some do.

I think this year's is the Brisbane Lions again.....what a pity there is no other contenders for the title again.

Catch you soon.

Cheers

 

[CyberKev]

Ms Storm

Its nice to know that there's full-on types like yourself in the Sporting capital boldly giving a young club a base on which to build a future in a hostile land. I had some friends who gravitated toward the Storm in the early days, reaped the harvest of the premiership, stuck it to me mercilessly (it was a stern test of my good humour, having followed the Dragons through hell and high water for over twenty years) then hurried back to the AFL when the team couldn't go back-to-back. It used to bemuse when they'd say -- "You're a Victorian, you should be barracking for the Storm". For many years I was a Queenslander, but I didn't toss in the Dragons for the Broncos in 1988 and the 4-zip premiership tally since then hasn't made me regret that decision at all. I think Melbourne is a good side for newcomers and I wouldn't criticise them for being theatregoers (in some cases you have to be one in the early days) while they are supporting the side. It just disappoints me that there are still those who haven't got the stomach to stick it out.

At the present time, it is certainly a case of 'girding the loins' for the Kevster as both the Dragons and the Hawks continue to serve up subpar displays. I'm not overly fazed as I gave-up my Pollyanna thinking about football as a teenager. As a supporter, your teams are going to generally give you at least as much anguish as ecstacy and you need the former to fully appreciate the latter. I know that fans of clubs like St Kilda usually cop snide asides for getting the maximum out of (what fans of power clubs view as) small beer successes, but I think its only natural that if you're accustomed to getting heavier doses of misery from your team, then of course you're going toderive proportionally greater amounts of satisfaction from any win that comes their way. I have enormous admiration for long term fans of struggling clubs as they'regenuine and loyal to a fault. They're also more centered than your average Essendon & Collingwood types who give the impression that they're primarily responsible for their team's success and that the players and coaching staff are merelysecondary passengers on the glory train. I had to walk away from BIGFOOTY as I could no longer stand the utterly obnoxious drivel that was oozing from the Collingwood drones multiplying like weeds on the site. Not that the Hawthorn "inner sanctum" types were exactly my cup of tea either; those guyshad leached on to the playing squad so tightly that theywere totally incapable of accepting (much less providing) anygenuinely constructive criticism of the side. At any rate, I tend to prefer things on LWOS where I can offer up ideas in a less constrictive and more considered environment.

You should be happy enough with both Melbourne sides at the moment. I commonly refer to the limitations of the Demons attack, but even after the Bulldogs spent all week saying how they were going to focus attention on Neitz, he still comes out and kicks 7. I can't understand how he cops so much criticism, as I'dhave him at Hawthorn is a heartbeat. The Storm is also easing along nicely, despite predictions of doom and gloom. I listened to Craig Bellamy on Sunday morning and found him to be very laid back and easy going. I'vealways had problems with Anderson (he's a petulant, moody, game player) even though he did win Brownie points for making clear his disdain for Ribot & Co.

I always enjoy hearing from you and hope that your Melbourne sporting winter is a suitably memorable one

Sod me sideways, this post is a long-winded, self-indulgent ramble... Sorry, its easy to see I'm having a quiet start to the morning...

CyberKev