AJC Australian Derby (G1) - Randwick 15th April

[Macca_]

Still 66 on the noms page. Will post it when the final acceptors come out Wednesday.

 

[Macca_]

Under 100/1 -

No Runner Win Place
125 Headturner 3.75 1.65
149 Sepia 5.00 2.00
168 Primus Nn 6.50 2.35
152 Spinney 6.50 2.35
150 Serenade Rose 11.00 3.50
117 De Beers 11.00 3.50
111 Congrats 15.00 4.50
133 Manton 15.00 4.50
119 Dream Ballad 15.00 4.50
158 Testafiable 21.00 6.00
130 Kincharm 21.00 6.00
165 Wasp 21.00 6.00
166 Goldtown Nn 26.00 7.25
124 Gallant Guru 34.00 9.25
167 Party Crasher Nn 51.00 13.50
115 Danzippo 51.00 13.50
148 Road To Athens 51.00 13.50
128 Impatient Star 67.00 17.50
135 Mr Bigalow 67.00 17.50
156 Sumac 67.00 17.50

 

[Moffo]

Geez I like De Beers here

 

[Macca_]

AJC Australian Derby field
A field of 14 will line up in the $2 million AJC Australian Derby over 2400m at Randwick on Saturday.
The notable omissions are the winner of Saturday’s Tulloch Stakes, Manton from the John Hawkes stable and Oh Oklahoma.
The Rosehill Guineas winner De Beers will take his place as will Dream Ballad, Headturner, Primus, Sepia and Spinney
The final field is below and the barrier draw will be done this afternoon:

$2 million AJC Australian Derby 2400m

Horse Trainer Wgt
BIG EAGLE (NZ) Anthony Olsen 56.5
CONGRATS (NZ) Roger James 56.5
DE BEERS (NZ) David Hayes 56.5
DREAM BALLAD Guy Walter 56.5
GOLDTOWN Tim Martin 56.5
HEADTURNER John Hawkes 56.5
JUJULIO Gerald Ryan 56.5
KINCHARM (NZ) Kevin Moses 56.5
LE CELIBATAIRE (NZ) John O'Shea 56.5
PRIMUS John O’Shea 56.5
SEPIA Graeme Rogerson 56.5
SPINNEY John Hawkes 56.5
SUMAC Kevin Moses 56.5
TESTAFIABLE Peter G Moody 56.5

 

[Macca_]

Fixed Odds -

No Runner Win Place
3 Headturner 3.75 1.65
8 Sepia 4.50 1.85
5 Spinney 6.00 2.25
2 Primus 6.00 2.25
9 Dream Ballad 11.00 3.50
1 De Beers 11.00 3.50
10 Congrats 15.00 4.50
11 Goldtown 21.00 6.00
4 Testafiable 26.00 7.25
7 Kincharm 26.00 7.25
6 Sumac 51.00 11.00
13 Le Celibataire 67.00 13.50
12 Jujulio 101.00 17.00
14 Big Eagle 201.00 21.00

 

[juggalo_strit]

Headturner for me.

 

[Macca_]

I've just printed out some stuff from around the traps...

6 horse race for mine...

Headturner, Sepia, Spinney, Primus, De Beers and the kiwi Congrats. Nothing else will win, the winner is in that bunch. Going to have a close look to try and pick some kind of preference/order...

 

[Macca_]

Macs Numbers -
2,8,1,3,5,10

Primus is always there abouts and looks to be a horse that will be very suited to the 2400m. Last start he sat out in the hotdog stands for the majority of the trip over 2000m and only just got beaten. Was a big run and he'll run a strong Derby. Sepia was another big run on the weekend behind Manton and the time was 1.5seconds faster than the win of De Beers who will run well again.

Headturner and Spinney didn't really finish off their races last start coming from 13th and 15th respectively at the 800m and 3rd and 5th at the 400m to finish 4th and 5th behind De Beers. The backmarkers in that race were also aided by a fast pace which let them come home well.The last 400m for both of them was perhaps disappointing on paper.

Also not that sure that Headturner has come back as good a horse he looked last spring. I thought he'd be the best to come out of the Derby but he has been disappointing this prep for mine until that last run. He may well be back and improve more this run, but I'm still not jumping on.

The Kiwi Congrats is an intersting runner. His times in his 2 2000m wins in NZ have him right in this race and if he handles the flight over and the Sydney track, he'll be right in the finish of this. Just hard to back him with that unknown factor associated with it.

Primus for me.

 

[juggalo_strit]

Here is the barrier draw.

1 - DE BEERS (NZ) 13
2 - PRIMUS 9
3 - HEADTURNER 6
4 - TESTAFIABLE 4
5 - SPINNEY 7
6 - SUMAC 3
7 - KINCHARM (NZ) 1
8 - SEPIA 8
9 - DREAM BALLAD 5
10 - CONGRATS (NZ) 10
11 - GOLDTOWN 2
12 - JUJULIO 14
13 - LE CELIBATAIRE (NZ) 11
14 - BIG EAGLE (NZ) 12

 

[les amber]

Sepia for mine, as said befre solid run last week, behind a well ridden hawkes/Beadman combination

 

[Tim Brasher]

I think Sepia will win as well. The horse has had 'derby horse' written all over it this preparation crying out for more ground.

 

[Billy Gunn]

I'm with the others Sepia for mine good prep for this race

 

[Macca_]

Congrats coming out of the Derby
New Zealand galloper Congrats will be scratched from the $2 million AJC Australian Derby today after trainer Roger James failed in a quest to get the promising gelding right for a trip to Australia.
James has been battling hoof problems with the Istidaad gelding and has decided to pull the pin with him unable to get the horse right before he was due to fly to Australia tonight.
In other Derby news the Graeme Rogerson-trained Sepia will undergo a vet check either today or tomorrow by the Racing NSW vet, Dr Craig Suann in respect to ongoing hoof problem the Spectrum gelding has been battling.

 

[Macca_]

Form -

http://www.racenet.com.au/form/form_ind2.asp?venue=randwick&mdate=4/15/2006&race=6

 

[Nuffs]

i was going to go with SPINNEY but i've changed my mind to PRIMUS. i haven't ever rated PRIMUS as a good horse and have labelled him a hype, but his runs this prep have been good while also being very unlucky due mainly to the jockey. a change of jockey could be the difference here although the barrier could beat him again

so i'm going with PRIMUS from SPINNEY and HEADTURNER. GOLDTOWN to run a nice race

 

[Freak2]

My tip is Spinney but will be having a saviour on Goldtown.

Well bred horses often win Derby's!!

 

[chili pepper]

Sticking with Spinney.

Great run after 4 week break and I think will improve more than Headturner from that run.

3-5-1-2 for me

Why is Manton not running?

 

[Macca_]

Racenet Preview -

Race 6 DAVID JONES AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m) at 3.05pm

Joice’s thoughts – Not much between the top few chances but leaning towards Headturner due partly to the Beadman factor and mainly to the fact that Headturner is proven over the Derby distance. He should have won the Vic Derby in the spring and showed he was right back to his best when a slashing fourth in the Rosehill Guineas – traditionally the best lead-up race into this one. Note De Beers and Primus ran the quinella in the Guineas so clearly banking on that form-line holding true.

Payne’s thoughts –What a great betting Derby this is. I’ve changed my mind four times in the last 24 hours but have settled on Spinney. I thought his run was outstanding in the Rosehill Guineas and that was his first run in four weeks so you would have expected the run to have benefited him. Primus’s effort was also super and for me the biggest danger provided he gets cover while Sepia is one I’ve got heaps of time for but I am concerned about his hoofs. De Beers and Headturner the other winning chances but you can’t tip them all.

Joice’s Tips – Headturner (3), De Beers (1), Primus (2)
Payne’s Tips – Spinney (5), Primus (2), Sepia (8)

 

[Macca_]

Also not that sure that Headturner has come back as good a horse he looked last spring. I thought he'd be the best to come out of the Derby but he has been disappointing this prep for mine until that last run. He may well be back and improve more this run, but I'm still not jumping on.

Gun... Please...

Bugger it :lol:

Outstayed them. Primus had his chance.

Result -
3,1,4,2

 

[Nuffs]

lol

i was all set to back primus and then i thought to myself "hang on. i said after the vrc derby that i would back headturner in the ajc derby given good form."

so i loaded on headturner. great win.