'Big Game Eels'?

[oldmancraigy]

I know there's been a fair bit of negativity lately about the way we've performed in big games, so I thought I'd check the FACTS and see for myself.

In games against teams that were in the top 8 at the time we played them our record is 7 Wins and 3 Losses, scoring 277 points and conceding 161.

Considering we lost twice to Manly in close contests I'd say I'm fairly happy with those results in the 'big games'

If we refine the search to games against teams CURRENTLY in the top 8, we get the following:
5 Wins and 4 Losses, scoring 226 points and conceding 165.

I think the second comparison is more fair, but it's worth noting that of the 4 losses we've had against teams CURRENTLY in the top 8, 3 of the losses were before round 9, and in the 4 games we played against top 8 teams before round 9 we scored 70 and let in 99 (ie - we were hopeless in the first few rounds of the season, but to be expected, new coach, players new to first grade making silly errors etc)

Which leaves us with our last 5 games against teams currently in the top 8 as 4 Wins and 1 Loss, 156 points scored and 76 against.

IMO that's a pretty good record of late - and it's not unfair to suggest that we blew the Manly game more than they won it - could have been 5 of our last 5 against top 8 teams (6 of 6 if you count Souths as a serious top 8 contender).

Maybe too much is being made of the fact that we 'don't show up' for the big games?

Get out there and smash the Doggies!

 

[jayman]

good post mate...

 

[Suitman]

Yes, it's an excellent post and maybe puts things into a truer perspective.

I didn't tip the Eels last week, and got it right.
I will be tipping them this week though. I have a feeling in my waters.

Suity

 

[hineyrulz]

Yes, it's an excellent post and maybe puts things into a truer perspective.

I didn't tip the Eels last week, and got it right.
I will be tipping them this week though. I have a feeling in my waters.

Suity

Lets hope your Water's are on the money mate :lol: only one way to show that we can play the big games. That is go out and smash the Doggie's.

 

[Belly in Brisvegas]

**Sorry this post sucked...it really did**

 

[Suitman]

Lets hope your Water's are on the money mate :lol: only one way to show that we can play the big games. That is go out and smash the Doggie's.

rulz,

I think our waters are in line. :lol:

And, Belly, WTF??

Suity

 

[Kornstar]

Do the stats on the games we have won/lost when it really mattered e.g 2001 GF, 2005 v Cowboys, Dragons R23 2005, Bulldogs 98, Storm 99, Manly last Sunday......

I think then you will find why all the negativity

 

[Belly in Brisvegas]

rulz,

I think our waters are in line. :lol:

And, Belly, WTF??

Suity

I went back and brushed my post because I didn't want it to be seen that I was criticising OMC when I was just querying the apples to apples comparison of what was then to what is now.

When I reread OMCs post it has merit.

 

[Suitman]

I went back and brushed my post because I didn't want it to be seen that I was criticising OMC when I was just querying the apples to apples comparison of what was then to what is now.

When I reread OMCs post it has merit.

You're losing it mate!! :lol:

Have you been out on a long lunch or something?? ;-)

Suity

 

[beagle]

Do the stats on the games we have won/lost when it really mattered e.g 2001 GF, 2005 v Cowboys, Dragons R23 2005, Bulldogs 98, Storm 99, Manly last Sunday......

I think then you will find why all the negativity

Your living in the past, man. Quit living in the past

 

[Kornstar]

Your living in the past, man. Quit living in the past

Actually, i'm living in the right now, there is no such thing as time travel so this is the only place i can live!!!!! I am just posting in a topic that is talking stats, i was just asking about other stats where the game actually mattered.....if you can give them to me i would be grateful.....

 

[spiderdan]

very interesting stats.

makes me even more optimistic about the dogs game.

 

[oldmancraigy]

Actually, i'm living in the right now, there is no such thing as time travel so this is the only place i can live!!!!! I am just posting in a topic that is talking stats, i was just asking about other stats where the game actually mattered.....if you can give them to me i would be grateful.....

Not applicable

New coach = different mindset from above. I've got a GUT FEELING that we won a lot of big regular season games under smithy, and also some big semis games, but seemed to 'stumble at the final hurdle'

But that's the case over Smithy's coaching career - I'm not about to pull stats on Hagans W/L % when it comes to big finals games/ 'final hurdles', then compare trends etc etc - just go with what you're seeing this season mate!

 

[Daneel]

Great Post OMC. I seen the heading and almost didn't have a look, as i thought it would be the usual dribble. Glad i looked, a very uplifting post. thanks.

 

[goboggo]

Not applicable

New coach = different mindset from above. I've got a GUT FEELING that we won a lot of big regular season games under smithy, and also some big semis games, but seemed to 'stumble at the final hurdle'

But that's the case over Smithy's coaching career - I'm not about to pull stats on Hagans W/L % when it comes to big finals games/ 'final hurdles', then compare trends etc etc - just go with what you're seeing this season mate!

This post makes more sense than the original post IMO.

You can manipulate stats to tell you a lot of things, and the fact is we might have gone ok against top 8 teams since round 9, but we haven't played teams at their best.

We lost both times to Manly, the Cows had no Thurston, the Warriors were in the middle of their shocking run (and still we only scored from kicks), the Tigers are our bunnies, the Broncs had half their side out.

I agree that we need not worry about the performances under Smith, but I still don't think we've beaten a top team in a top game.

I also agree with you that perhaps too much is being made about our inability to win the big games, and that maybe we have been unlucky in some of them. We will see over the next two months.

 

[hippy]

As lovely as I think this post intended to be, the bottom line is that stats can tell you anything you want them too. I am all for positivity but I don't think we need stats to be positive for tonight.

Parramatta on a number of occassions this year have shown that they are a marvellous football side. Our rookies, coupled with our experience, not to mention our LETHAL halves combination (allow me to indulge a little) have all had awesome moments throughout the season.

If we come out ready to play football tonight there is no reason why we cannot win it, even without our Courageous Captain. It is all up to the boys tonight but even if we lose, the season is not over, not by a long shot.

 

[Utey]

The question is, was last nights performance the turning point where we actually turn up for big games?

 

[goboggo]

Last night was no different to any of the other games. The only difference was that the bounce of the ball went our way this time.

We have an amazing ability to score tries, but we also let quite a few in.

With Cayless and Cordoba back our defence should get stronger, but I still think this Eels team will give us heart-attacks all the way to whenever our last game is.

 

[oldmancraigy]

As lovely as I think this post intended to be, the bottom line is that stats can tell you anything you want them too.

Really?

Then make the stats tell you that we've lost more than one game to a top 8 team since round 9.

5 wins from our last 6 games against top 8 teams - and we've still got improving to do!

 

[goboggo]

I think the point is - why did you happen to pick round 9?

Or you could go through the stats and work out who was playing in the other teams (ie no Lockyer, no Thurston, no Mason and O'Meley etc) and then make the stats prove that those teams wouldn't be in the 8 if they were playing with that squad.

See, you can organise stats to tell you what you want quite often.

We could just as well say we are 0/2 against teams above us.

Don't get me wrong, our team is doing well and the whole "we can't beat top teams" may be blown out of proportion, but we are still yet to really prove anything.