Some info -
Hugs Dancer Unlikely
Thursday, 29 December 2005
Hugs Dancer unlikely for the BMW Perth Cup.
The David Hayes trained Hugs Dancer, who was on the third line of betting for the BMW Perth
Cup is rated only a 10% chance of making the trip west.
According to stable sources the horse is lame in the near fore hoof and is in grave doubt on
taking his place in the Cup. A decision will be made at around 6 am Adelaide time tomorrow.
Gear Change In Perth Cup
Thursday, 29 December 2005
Victorian mare Quintanella will race in a tongue bit in the BMW Perth Cup. This late gear
change will not make the official race books but should be in The West Australian and
Tabform.
Quintanella second in the Cup Trial at Pinjarra has reported to have improved with the run
and has won a 3000 metre event and is not the roughest in the Cup.
Breeding Form Guide To Perth Cup
Thursday, 29 December 2005
Guide to Perth Cup : A Breeding Perspective - By Julian Mould
As the New Year approaches many people will be considering the possibility of making a new
year's resolution. In all probability the most likely resolution will be, "I must
ensure that I pick the winner of the 2006 Perth Cup." Some might say that this might be
setting our sights too high and that we should stick to something easier like "I must
cross the Nullarbor on foot this year". Maybe it won't be so hard. Hopefully, this
concise breeding assessment of the oncoming Perth Cup will be of some use. The guide is
meant to be just that -; a guide. It will not state the winner of the Perth Cup but it
should help to whittle the field down into a list of the most likely candidates. Horses are
listed in BARRIER order.
Horse Barrier No. Weight Jockey Trainer
Higgins Gold 1 52 Peter Knuckey A G Durrant
Higginsville -; ex Elaan (Adraan)
Higgins Gold is not from an illustrious family, on his dam's side, and has a dosage
Index of 7.00. Such a high Dosage figure is not associated with previous Perth Cup winners.
Wide margin win at Pinjarra suggests a good run may be on the cards but the draw in barrier
1 could work against him.
Black Tom 2 52 Peter Hall F H Maynard
Langfuhr(CAN) -; ex Narmada (USA) (Blushing Groom (FR))
Well bred. Last year's Perth Cup 3rd and carries 0.5 kilos less this year. Black
Tom's pedigree is quite reminiscent of the Bart Cummings horse Frightening. Frightening
was, like Black Tom, by Langfuhr but instead out of a Nassipour mare. Nassipour was,
however, sired by Black Tom's dam-sire - Blushing Groom. Frightening was a ready
achiever at middle distances - winning the 2000m Coongy Handicap and 2500m Moonee Valley
Gold Cup -; but he was found wanting for true staying power when confronted with the
Melbourne Cup. Black Tom may find himself confronted by a similarly difficult Perth Cup.
Langfuhr does not have a reputation for producing high-quality long-distance stayers.
Black Tom's dosage index and centre of distribution (COD) reads DP = 8-4-10-0-2 (24) DI
= 2.43 CD = 0.67.
Black Tom's total dosage points equal 24, which reflect his class. However, the DI and
COD for Black Tom do not necessarily fit in with the vast majority of Perth Cup winners.
When compared to past winners of the Perth Cup, or even the Melbourne Cup, it would appear
that Black Tom's pedigree is on the absolute borderline for a success in a top-flight
3200m. Things must fall into place for Black Tom but, as his 3rd last year showed, he could
yet succeed.
Master Minx 3 52 William Pike R C Mc Pherson
Surtee -; ex Miss Firecracker (Twig Ruler)
A typical blend of a dam's stamina-orientated pedigree matched to a sire's speedier
pedigree. Surtee is not noted for producing pattern-class staying types. He is more likely
to sire a type in the 1400m-1600m bracket. Master Minx's dam has such significant
staying lines though and Master Minx has proved that he is capable of taking on staying
distances with a 2nd to Plastered in the Melvista and a 3rd to the same horse in the WATC
Derby (beaten 9 lengths). Master Minx had an awkward barrier to contend with in the CB Cox
which might explain his 10th placing. His 4th in the Towton Cup was fairly honourable and
while his jockey appears to have deserted him, his replacement (W Pike) is an able
substitute. He is drawn well and the $35 price, at current fixed odds, seems a shade
generous. Master Minx drops back to 52 kg from 57kg.
Caught Courting (NZ) (B) 4 52 Lucas Camilleri L Kennewell
Danehill (USA) -; ex Let's Elope (NZ) (Nassipour USA))
This pedigree stands out as a genuine 3200m pedigree. His sire needs no introduction as one
of the greatest sires to have graced any Australian stud farm. His dam, Let's Elope, won
the Melbourne Cup. He is drawn ideally and has one of the carnival's Group 1-winning
jockeys aboard. From a pedigree point-of-view Caught Courting sells himself as an ideal
candidate. His current $16 quote, therefore, seems wide-of-the-mark. The Towton Cup form, in
which he was 2nd, should not be underestimated as it was run in a very fast time. If the
race was a CB Cox stakes then it would have been counted as the 2nd fastest CB Cox of the
last 20 years. Only Saratov ran a faster time than Miss Copycat in his 1988 CB Cox stakes
run. Admittedly, the Towton runners were carrying less weight those who ran in the CB Cox
but Towton form has played a significant role in the Perth Cup before and the 2005 running
was one of the best for a while. Caught Courting's run was not ideal in the CB Cox but
he did have some mitigating circumstances, the first of which was an awkward draw in barrier
7. This may seem like a good barrier but history shows it to be a consistent hindrance. He
may also have 'bounced'. The term 'bounce' belongs to an American idea.
Older horses are capable of putting in below-par runs immediately following a very strong
race. This below-par run is known as a 'bounce' and happens because the vast
majority of older horses are not good at putting in two big runs in a row. If Caught
Courting 'bounced' in the CB Cox then he may return to much better form in the Perth
Cup. Caught Courting also boasts a likeable dosage characteristic known as Dominant
Classicity where the classic points of the dosage profile exceed all the others put
together. This trait has been seen to produce classy horses that show great tenacity and
will-to-win. He drops back to 52 kg from the 58kg of the CB Cox.
Al Didnavadad 5 52 Dion Luciani P J Bermingham
Royal Abjar (USA) -; ex Royal Family (Zabaleta (USA))
His 2nd in the Tattersall's Cup surprised many but he does not still does not
necessarily appeal on form. He has not won a race for a year and a half and this fact does
not make for ideal betting proposition. However, he is descended from a Gone West sire-line
(you'll find him as broodmare sire for this year's English Derby winner) but his
sire is more like the usual Gone West type becoming 1994 Champion Three-Year-Old Miler in
Germany and siring quality milers such as WA Guineas winner Royal Retrieve. His dam was bred
in France with Arctic Tern as sire (won Prix Ganay-G1 and sired French Derby winner Bering)
and he in turn was sire by the outstanding Sea Bird II. Al Didnavadad has raced non-stop
since the beginning of July and has now had 13 starts without spelling or freshening
Early Express 6 55.5 Jason Whiting P J Giadresco
Dauberval (USA) -; ex Early Dawn (Ifrad (USA))
www.westozracing.com
is still carrying the story 'CB Cox Stakes : Early Express is right on time' under
the 'Breeding News' section. This details his good chance in the Perth Cup.
Hugs Dancer (FR) 7 56 Nicholas Ryan D A Hayes
Cadeaux Genereux (GB) -; ex Embracing (GB) (Reference Point)
Hugs Dancer has a number of factors weighing against him. Firstly, he has not actually won a
race since Sept 2004 when he won the Craiglee. Secondly, he is nine years of age. Thirdly,
he will be attempting to win the Perth Cup first up. Fourthly, he is top-weight. Given these
issues it seems somewhat surprising that he is a 7/1 shot in the fixed odds market. Sired by
the sprinter Cadeaux Genereux, out of a Reference Point mare, he does not really strike as
an animal best suited to Group1 or Group 2 races at 3200m run at a fast pace. Hugs Dancer is
vastly experienced but he makes limited betting appeal.
Blevvo (B) 8 52 Danny Miller D R Harrison
Blevic -; ex Carenel (Highest (GB)
Blevvo's run in the CB Cox stakes was a great effort. By Blevic out of a Highest (GB)
mare he is bred to stay all day and it would be no surprise to see him involved in the
finish. Paradoxically, for a Fruit 'n' Veg winner, when his dosage is compared to
past winners of the Perth Cup he seems too stoutly bred. His dosage index of 0.39, and his
points array in general, confirm that he is laden with stamina while his centre of
distribution (COD) is equal to -0.75. A COD of that magnitude has not been seen in a Perth
Cup winner since 1983. He has also drawn in a historically poor barrier. Barrier 8 has not
even contributed a Perth Cup placing, let alone winner, in the last 18 years.
Thermo King E 2 9 52 Troy Turner I S Haggerty
Ivorys Irish -; ex Spangled (Old Spice)
Owned by Sir Ernest Lee Steere himself but that fact alone may not see him win. Like Hugs
Dancer he has not won since September 2004. His recent form suggests he is unlikely to be
good enough to win.
Quintanella (B) 10 52 Kevin Forrester R Laing
Desert King (IRE) -; ex Quinta do Lago (Palace Music (USA)
Sire is the same as that of Makybe Diva and other notable stayers. Quintanella's dam is
a daughter of Palace Music, sire of Naturalism (NZ) and Dubai World Cup winner Cigar.
Quintanella's dosage profile compares favourably with many Perth Cup winners and boasts
Dominant Classicity (See Caught Courting above). Quintanella has an excellent pedigree for
the job of winning the Perth Cup but she may have drawn a little awkwardly. In spite of the
barrier she drew the 25/1 in the fixed odds market seems generous. Her form does not set the
pulse racing but it can be noted that her best win came at 3000m, albeit in soft ground.
Armiger 11 52 B V Watkins
Dr Johnson (USA) -; ex Bavarde Royale (Sovereign Slipper)
Armiger does not appear to be racing well enough to win the Perth Cup.
Lust For Dust (B) 12 52 Alana Sansom P D Tapper
Made of Gold (USA) -; ex Australia Wealth (Bluebird)
Lust for Dust does not look to have enough critical form beyond 2000m to be considered as a
chance.
Ca Cao 13 52 Daniel Staeck K M Kersley-Dyson
Has not won a race for 1 ½ years and does not look to have enough critical form to be
considered as a chance.
Bon Argent 14 52.5 John Claite I S Haggerty
Ron Bon (USA) -; ex Love a Dollar (Hermetic (NZ))
Crossed by Nasrullah 5m x 5m Bon Argent looks to be bred to be speedier than your average
Perth Cup winner. While she has her good third in the CB Cox stakes to offer she still
appears to be lacking the kind of staying credentials needed to win a Perth Cup. Her dosage
profile reads as 6-2-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.78. While she boasts Dominant Classicity
(see Caught Courting) her dosage profile has her leaning away from being a true 3200m
staying prospect. Her barrier draw is awkward for a mare whose staying potential is in
question.
Universal Warrior 15 52 Steven Parnham N D Parnham
Royal Abjar -; Old Brandy (Recall the Tune (NZ))
6th in last year's Perth Cup, and inbred to Raise a Native and Hail to Reason, Universal
Warrior seems best suited to middle distances in the 2200m -; 2400m area. His dosage profile
(DP = 6-1-5-2-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.79) says he should see out the trip better than most
of his rivals but his form of the last 12 months has seen him at his best on rain-softened
ground. He will need to have improved to better the 6th he scored in last years' cup.
Lord Erin (NZ) (B) 16 52 Jason Brown G Dalziel
Lord Ballina -; Erin Marie (NZ) (Catus (FR)
Lord Erin seems to be in good form of late but he has recorded only one win over the last 2
years and that was in the recent Traralgon Cup where on ly 9 horse competed. Lord Erin's
sire, Lord Ballina, might be a son of speedy Bletchingly but he is noted for his capacity to
sire middle distance and staying horses -; not least the 1992 Perth Cup winner Mirror Magic
(NZ). Lord Erin's dosage profile suggests that he will stay the trip well enough. He has
drawn wide but this may not prove to be too much of an impediment.
Dundally (B) 17 52 Shaun Mc Gruddy J M Busslinger
Voltage Peak -; ex Peppermint Queen (Kampala (GB))
Dundally is inbred to Biscay 3m x 5m. His dosage profile suggests he will stay well but his
form suggests that he requires slow going. Dundally seems to have drawn too wide to allow
him to actually win the Perth Cup. A place may not be beyond his grasp.
Beswinging (B) E 1 18 52 B P Graham
Celtic Swing (GB) -; ex Bespoken (USA) (Danzig (USA))
Beswinging's sire won French Derby but was noted for having poor front legs and, as a
consequence, had a pre-disposition for soft ground. Beswinging seems to have inherited a
liking for similar ground and has not won since winning the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley in
September 2004 in Heavy ground. He also has a wide draw.
Intowishin (B) 19 52 Patrick Carbery A D Mathews
Scenic (IRE) -; ex Bedtime (Be My Guest (USA))
Inbred 3m x 3m to Northern Dancer, Intowishin puts himself right in the picture for the
Perth Cup. Intowishin has a dosage profile that also fits well within the confines of the
vast majority of the Perth Cup winners. Intowishin's sire is Scenic sire of Universal
Prince (AJC Derby-Gr.1). Intowishin was seen at his best this year when winning the Listed
Helena Vale Cup at Belmont in Heavy ground. A number of Intowishin's immediate ancestors
showed a liking for softer ground and Intowishin may well be one of those too. His trainer
is a master at winning the Perth Cup though and his fixed-odds price of 50/1 may well be
shorter on New Years day. He seems to be being brought steadily along to pick for the big
day. The wide draw tempers one's fervour for an outright win but his chance of placing
seems real enough.
Our Grey Halo 20 52 Shaun O'Donnell A G Durrant
Don't Say Halo (USA) -; ex Our Grey Hostess (Brandenburg (Ire))
Overcoming the widest of all possible barrier draws won't be easy for Our Grey Halo and
it will take all his jockey's skill and judgment to make the best use of him. Our Grey
Halo's dam was a 1000m winner at Northam at the close of her career but she was also a
3m x 3m cross to English Derby winner St. Paddy so she seems to be vaguely contradictory in
her make-up. Our Grey Halo's sire, Don't Say Halo, is renowned for having produced
many middle-distance pattern performers such as St.Clemens Belle (WATC Fruit 'N' Veg
Stakes-Gr.1) and Blue Diamond winner Canonise. Don't Say Halo's sire Halo is the
sire of two Kentucky Derby winners (Sunday Silence and Sunny's Halo). While this is an
interesting pedigree that shapes well for middle-distances it is difficult to discern
whether he is best suited to the 3200m Perth Cup. His racing style suggests that could stay
perfectly well but his barrier will remain his biggest hurdle.
