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News Coronavirus and NRL

Billythekid

First Grade
Messages
6,002
This is pretty much it. When (if) facilities become stretched due to this what will the outcome be? Will this in turn have negative effects on other illnesses due to this? At the moment this is possible and is in addition to the risk of this virus.

It’s already having an effect. In hospitals there are certain treatments we’re already restricted that will impact patients well being. Bipap, high flow nasal prongs, nebulisers and even high flow oxygen is being restricted depending on where you work. We’re already discussing the fact that if there is an outbreak we’ll have to limit which patients we treat as there will likely be too many.

Most big emergencies in this country are already stretched and flu season tends to push us to breaking point. Adding corona on top is going to seriously impact waiting times and bed spaces.
 

Coparugby

Juniors
Messages
671
It’s already having an effect. In hospitals there are certain treatments we’re already restricted that will impact patients well being. Bipap, high flow nasal prongs, nebulisers and even high flow oxygen is being restricted depending on where you work. We’re already discussing the fact that if there is an outbreak we’ll have to limit which patients we treat as there will likely be too many.

Most big emergencies in this country are already stretched and flu season tends to push us to breaking point. Adding corona on top is going to seriously impact waiting times and bed spaces.
I also know of one hospital where protective gear is being stolen at quite a rate.
 

Xcalibre

Juniors
Messages
2,368
As much as I’m glad the footy is back and am annoyed it might be stopped altogether, seeing all those people crammed into the new Cows stadium last night made me think, whichever terrorist designed this covid-19 attack is brilliant. Even with everyone being bombarded with story after story about the virus (it seems to be on half the time) they still came in their thousands, and to Parra too.

Seriously? I can’t think of a much better way to efficiently spread a very contagious virus.
 

Xcalibre

Juniors
Messages
2,368
This is pretty much it. When (if) facilities become stretched due to this what will the outcome be? Will this in turn have negative effects on other illnesses due to this? At the moment this is possible and is in addition to the risk of this virus.

I was at Nepean Hospital the other day and eavesdropped hints at how chaotic it could make the staffs lives if this thing hits big. I almost walked into the covid-19 clinic when I arrived too lol.
 

Rhino_NQ

Immortal
Messages
32,332
As much as I’m glad the footy is back and am annoyed it might be stopped altogether, seeing all those people crammed into the new Cows stadium last night made me think, whichever terrorist designed this covid-19 attack is brilliant. Even with everyone being bombarded with story after story about the virus (it seems to be on half the time) they still came in their thousands, and to Parra too.

Seriously? I can’t think of a much better way to efficiently spread a very contagious virus.
I reckon contaminating toilet paper supplies with it and spreading some bs on facebook so complete f@$ktards can see
 

Surely

Post Whore
Messages
84,543
As much as I’m glad the footy is back and am annoyed it might be stopped altogether, seeing all those people crammed into the new Cows stadium last night made me think, whichever terrorist designed this covid-19 attack is brilliant. Even with everyone being bombarded with story after story about the virus (it seems to be on half the time) they still came in their thousands, and to Parra too.

Seriously? I can’t think of a much better way to efficiently spread a very contagious virus.

Well they are window lickers , only a terrorist could come up with a cunning plan to knock off the old people and the sick people

Sounds more like a Centrelink plan
 

Mr Angry

Not a Referee
Messages
46,870
As much as I’m glad the footy is back and am annoyed it might be stopped altogether, seeing all those people crammed into the new Cows stadium last night made me think, whichever terrorist designed this covid-19 attack is brilliant. Even with everyone being bombarded with story after story about the virus (it seems to be on half the time) they still came in their thousands, and to Parra too.

Seriously? I can’t think of a much better way to efficiently spread a very contagious virus.
On any given weekday 350,000 people catch a Sydney Metro train. 160,000 leaving CBD stations every afternoon.

LINK
 

Xcalibre

Juniors
Messages
2,368
On any given weekday 350,000 people catch a Sydney Metro train. 160,000 leaving CBD stations every afternoon.

LINK

That’s definitely the most effective way to spread it, but like going to the footy, easily avoided for many. If you can drive, ride, scooter etc, do it for god’s sake!
 

Cactus

Juniors
Messages
647
Hadn’t realised we had such medically accomplished merkins on here !

They also masquerade as bush fire management experts & can predict the weather decades in advance !!! Amazing isn't it !!!

Here on LU we have all manner of expert merkinry on tap.

Just mention off field incidents and legal expert merkins will magically appear faster than a bulldog to a prom night.
 

wibble

Bench
Messages
4,661
it’s not, it’s tracking at between 0.16-3.4% depending on area, quality of treatment and age groups most affected. your run of the mill annual Flu death rate is round the 0.8-1%
There is still not enough evidence to suggest morality rates in a country like Australia will be significantly higher that the general annual flu deaths, hopefully we won’t find out!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

A flu

Italy has a mortality rate of 7% because their hospitals are overun, that's about 70 times more lethal than the flu, if you live in a country run by let's say a dictator that enforces lockdown and can have hospitals built in a week then it's probably only 20 times worse than the flu.

However your biggest concern appears to be Rupert, good luck with that.

The "tracking between 0.16 and 3.4%" is

1) alarming enough by itself

and

2) misleading

That flu death rate is also overstated. But even so, if they were both at 1% they would each be alarming diseases, and the facts that coronavirus seems like it spreads both more easily, and more stealthily, would make coronavirus very concerning.

Italy's high death rate is also contributed to by a very old skewed population, but yes, the overwhelmed system is helping the mortality into the 7% region.

It is also more or less irrelevant that there are cases not recorded and so therefore mortality is lower, this is true of all diseases. We really care about the mortality when a disease affects someone enough for them to suspect they are ill, which is mostly what is being tracked.

This link, among many good mathematical arguments, shows why the mortality is tough to track, and the 0.16% is nowhere near the true figure (except in ideal circumstances, South Korea has about the best survival rate at the moment, with mortality at about 0.6%- due to having it mostly contained, having plenty of resources per patient, and the age groups that it is affecting). The estimate here is 3.5 to 4%, when medical systems are stressed.


The WHO estimate is about 3.4% mortality, which is horrific for a disease that spreads so easily.

But it is true that mortality could get down very low, if we only have a few cases at a time. That is why we need to lockdown the population now, before the power of exponential growth makes this a disaster.

The author of the article linked shows how if Hubei was locked down 1 day earlier, it might have reduced the cases by 20 000.

People saying this is "only" affecting 200 people in Australia are missing the point of the power of exponential growth. You shouldn't be counting from the front, as it were, but from the end. 1 week less, even 1 day less, of exponential growth will be unnoticeable in number of cases at the start of an epidemic, but can be huge by the end.

And we also have way more than 200 cases. Everywhere that has gotten to 200 cases, a week later has discovered they had many times this number. The article also shows how when they thought there were 444 cases in Wuhan, there were actually about 12 000. The number of official cases in Australia could be 10 or even 20 or 30 times lower than the actual number.

On top of all of this, we are getting coronavirus heading into our flu season, unlike the Northern Hemisphere countries. So if our medical system already struggles at peak flu season, adding coronavirus to the mix could be disastrous.

We absolutely have to take this seriously, right now, before it becomes unstoppable. Even a 0.5% death rate on top of our flu season would be bad, and that is an absolute best case scenario if we lock down our towns and cities right now (not on Monday, not just a suggestion, not just sporting events).

40% increase in cases overnight, if we keep that up we could get 1000 times as many infected in 3 weeks. If we have 2000 infected now, which is possible, that could be 2 million in just 3 weeks. If that happens, our medical system will absolutely be overwhelmed, and our elderly population will get close to the 7% that Italy has. And shortly after that we will enter flu season, but will have no medical spaces for people with the flu, which will make it one of the deadlier flu seasons.

We are talking about 150 000 + deaths in this country, most of us losing a loved one, if we don't start taking this seriously.

My prediction is in a week and a half we will get more serious, schools and public transport will close, and a week after that most shops. We won't have acted early enough to get the "good case" of "only" 0.5% deaths (and "only" tens of thousands of cases, so "only" a few hundred deaths, or a mild flu season, as people are saying). But that will hopefully stop catastrophic losses like I have suggested could happen.
 

Mr Angry

Not a Referee
Messages
46,870
Here on LU we have all manner of expert merkinry on tap.

Just mention off field incidents and legal expert merkins will magically appear faster than a bulldog to a prom night.
Including experts on merkinry.
 

wibble

Bench
Messages
4,661
Not necessarily.

As of 11AM yesterday (updated figures to come), over 15000 people have been tested in NSW with 92 positive results.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200313_00.aspx

Each of those cases are itemized (results of some still pending) and the overwhelming majority are people who have travelled recently, been in close contact with other confirmed cases of people who have travelled or are aged care workers etc.

It is good we are still at the point we can track each person, identify their contacts, and ask people to isolate.

Every country that has had an outbreak was in that "phase 1" for a few weeks, and that is where we are.

Since it is in the community though, containment strategies won't keep the numbers manageable. They might make the number of infected from each case drop by 0.1 or 0.2 per case.

But social distancing is the only way for this to stay within reach of our medical system.
 

wibble

Bench
Messages
4,661
I can't see it happening. GOVT's are moving quickly on this thing, in a weeks time NZ will have more confirmed cases for certain.
I'd like them to play and just have the guys doing the drums echoing around the park. It'd sound great. Likewise just the single guy blowing the horn at Canberra games. lol

Maybe we should do a "crazy loud fan contest" and let the 100 or so loudest, most one eyed, not-ashamed-of-their-passion, fans of each club come to each game still, spread 1 to each bay area (and no shared toilets or eating spaces).

In reality, I can't see many games continuing for the next month or two, fans or no fans.
 

Mr. Shaman

Bench
Messages
2,645
Closed cases, the more accurate way of tracking death and recovery rates currently has the death rate at 7%

That is scary, even during SARS it was never that high, wasn't until it was all done and dusted did the tru figure of 10% death rate reveal itself.
 

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