Who can stay the trip - Victoria Derby breeding analysis..
Tara Madgwick - 31/10/2013
The Group I Victoria Derby is the richest race in the spring for three year-olds, but the gruelling 2500 metre journey gets the better of most so Breednet editor Tara Madgwick gives her thoughts on which horses will rise to the challenge.
1 - Criterion (colt by Sebring x Mica's Pride, by Bite the Bullet (USA) )
Has plenty of class and did run a solid second behind Complacent in the Group I Spring Champion Stakes at 2000 metres, but on pedigree it is hard to think the extra 500 metres is going to be his cup of tea. From the first crop of Golden Slipper winner Sebring and is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinters Varenna Miss and Silently from another stakes-winning sprinter in Mica's Pride, so not much on face value to suggest staying will be his true forte.
2 - Complacent (colt by Authorized (IRE) x Insouciance , by Quest for Fame (GB))
Spring Champion Stakes winner on an upward spiral and while he's from an old Australian speed family, it's been given a heavy dose of staying blood as he's by an English Derby winner in Authorized from a mare by another English Derby winner in Quest for Fame. Looks like the staying blood has come out on top in his make-up, so expect a good showing.
3 - Savvy Nature (NZ) (gelding by Savabeel x Generous Nature, by Carnegie (IRE))
Another top contender in top form and bred to be here. Like the previous he's from a speed female family that includes Victorian Group I winners Sober Suit and Titanic Jack, but it's been updated with Arc winner Carnegie and Zabeel's high class son Savabeel, so it's no wonder he's shaping as a stayer. Savabeel already has the score on the board for this race having sired Sangster to win in 2011 and may well make it a double with this bloke.
4 - Polanski (gelding by Rakti (GB) x Citrium, by Citidancer (IRE))
Racing well and has won up to 2000 metres. Sire was high-class European galloper, best at a mile to a mile and a quarter, but did win Italian Derby at a mile and a half. His female family is largely speed oriented, so 2500 metres may test, but he tries very hard and with Hugh Bowman aboard and gate one will have every opportunity.
5 - Drago (colt by Danehill Dancer (IRE) x Snapdragon (IRE) by Galileo)
Has two siblings that have never won beyond 1400 metres, but has always given the impression he would stay and first two dams being by Galileo and Darshaan is encouraging and his sire Danehill Dancer is versatile and has already sired a VRC Oaks winner in Arapao Miss. Yet to deliver on the potential he showed earlier on, but has ability. Autumn maybe better for him.
6 - San Diego (colt by Exceed and Excel x Del Mar, by Zabeel)
Under normal circumstances an Exceed and Excel would no more run 2500 metres than fly to the moon, however this horse might be the one to turn that theory on its head. His dam is by Zabeel and she's a sister to high class stayer Hill of Grace, so if he can channel that part of his pedigree over the final furlongs he might add a new string to the bow of his champion sire.
7 - Honey Steel's Gold (gelding by Keep the Faith x Lunar Lights by Bianconi (USA))
He's a grand-son of champion Japanese sire Sunday Silence, who won a Kentucky Derby and has sired more classic winners than some of us have had hot dinners. His dam won at 2000 metres and first three dams are by Bianconi, Encosta de Lago and Scenic, all sires capable of getting a decent stayer. Form is below some of those above, but there are positives in the pedigree to suggest he might cope with the trip and trainer will have him ready.
8 - Tips And Beers (gelding by De Beers x Gypsy Giaconda, by Peintre Celebre)
Sire won the Rosehill Guineas, was second in the Australian Derby and comes from the immortal Eight Carat family that has given us Derby heroes like Octagonal, Don Eduardo, Kaapstad, etc. He's a half-brother to Roma Giaconda, who was third in the VRC Oaks and comes from the Leica family that has given us Derby heroes like Nothin' Leica Dane and Redding. Has plenty of Derby blood in his veins and a double cross of Sir Tristram, so might pay not to underestimate him.
9 - Epic Saga (gelding by Real Saga x Al's Wish, by Flying Spur)
Consistent of late without winning, but Real Saga and Flying Spur hardly seems a recipe for staying success, so I'd have grave doubts that 2500 metres will bring out his best. Wide draw also no help, but there is a glimmer of hope coming from his great grand-mother, who is a sibling to a couple of two-mile Cup winners in Spyglass and Gaudeamus
10 - Tupac Amaru (colt by Street Cry (IRE) x Peruvian (GB), by Diktat)
Form not at the level of some of his rivals, but battled hard last start when narrowly beaten in Listed Geelong Classic at 2200 metres and pedigree is all about staying. By outstanding and versatile sire Street Cry (IRE), who has already given us a Melbourne Cup winner in Shocking and female family is packed with high class European stayers.
11 - Pinstripe Lane (NZ) (gelding by Pins x Singasong, by Danasinga)
By a top class Kiwi-based sire Pins, from the daughter of another very good versatile sire in Danasinga and comes from the family of champion mare Emancipation, who is his third dam. Has been thereabouts in recent runs, has won at 2050 metres and this family has thrown a mix of sprinters and stayers including Caulfield Cup winner Railings, so warrants some respect with a good gate and Nash Rawiller on board.
12 - Throw The King (gelding by Elvstroem x Zabelette, by Zabeel)
By Victoria Derby winner Elvstroem and is a half-brother to Group I Brisbane Cup winner Art Success from a daughter of Zabeel, so the Derby dream has probably been alive with him since the day he was born. Might not have liked the heavy at Geelong when third in the Classic, but he's bred to lap up 2500 metres, it's just a matter of whether he does it fast enough to figure.
13 - Thunder Fantasy (Colt by Lucky Owners x Pink Pier, by Galileo (IRE))
By champion Hong Kong miler Lucky Owners, a son of Danehill who also won the HK Derby and is from the same family as Melbourne Cup winner Might And Power. Dam being by Galileo a positive, but has been found wanting in two recent runs in better company, so is going to have to improve plenty and not convinced 2500 metres is going to help him do that.
14 - Surging Wave (gelding by Encosta de Lago x Lucida, by Danehill (USA)
One win at 1400 metres and runs in better company encouraging. He's certainly bred to be a good horse being by champion sire Encosta de Lago from a speedy branch of the Eight Carat family through stakes-winning sprinters Lucida and Peruzzi. That said, his dam Lucida is a sister to Flora Danica who was second in VRC Oaks and grand-dam Peruzzi is a sister Australian Derby winner Don Eduardo, so nobody will be surprised if he jumps out of the ground.
15 - Famechon (gelding by Haradasun x Heavenly Insight, by Galileo (IRE)
By Elvstroem's half-brother Haradasun, who was best at a mile and dam is from imported US family, but is by champion sire Galileo so that's a plus. Still a maiden after six starts, albeit not racing badly, although hard to see him making the quantum leap here.
16 - Bring Something (gelding by Sebring x Metellus, by Naturalism)
Second runner by Golden Slipper winner Sebring and has some staying blood on dam's side being from a daughter of Australian Derby winner Naturalism from the family of Oaks winners Denise's Joy, Joie Denise and Sunday Joy. Still a maiden after four starts, but not beaten far behind Cox Plate winner Shamus Award in the Stutt Stakes and has Glen Boss on board, so a win would probably not shock us as much as Shamus Award winning Cox Plate.
