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This race appears to be all about the speed map, and the Hollindale. No less than 7 of these 12 runners competed in the Hollindale Cup two weeks ago on the Gold Coast, in which Above Deck bolted in. The key to the Hollindale was that it was very slowly run. In fact, they ran the quickest final 600m sectional of the day, beating Fashions Afield’s final 600m time by 0.27 seconds, and beating other 1200m races by 0.7 seconds and more. It was run as a sit and sprint, and it gave horses like Ike’s Dream and Octapussy no hope in closing. Above Deck sat on the pace, had the right run and sprinted away.
However, this race looks like being more of the same. As can be seen by the speed map below, there looks to be no pace in this. Bazelle should lead, but is unlikely to get any pressure at all, and should be able to drop the tempo right down. Horse’s like Ike’s Dream and Octapussy are again going to have to concede the front runners six or more lengths at the 600m, and run phenomenal sectionals in order to win. It will be a task.
With that, ABOVE DECK looks the one. He’ll camp right on the pace, and will more than likely only need to repeat his solid 116 figure of last start to win. He sprinted away powerfully at the Gold Coast and that’s likely to be the scenario again. There’s no reason he won’t get the trip, and no reason he won’t hold his 116 figure and win again. We’ve assessed him at his 116, and marked him $3.50 top pick.
ROMAN ARCH should also cross to get a nice run, will be more suited by this 2000m now than the 1800m of the Hollindale, and has an Australia Cup victory with a big 119 rating to his name. If he turned in that performance, he’d street them. 119 would win this race comfortably, however he hasn’t looked like returning to that recently, he rated 115 behind Eremein but only 109 in the Hollindale. He lacked the turn of foot of Above Deck in the Hollindale. We’ve assessed him at his 115 again, and marked him $6.0.
IKE’S DREAM would be clear top rater if there was going to be pace in the race. Two starts ago she rated a strong 116 figure behind Eremein. She has rated 116 twice in her last six runs, and at WFA that makes her a better horse than Above Deck, however she will not get this race run to suit. She will give Above Deck six lengths or more at the 600m, and the difference of 2.5kgs between them will not be enough for her to make that up. If the pace was on, we’d give her the full 116 and have her clear top pick. The way it will be run, we’ve only assessed her at 113, and marked her $6.50.
VOUVRAY will get the run of the race. She’ll box seat on the fence, she returned to form doing the same in the Hollindale last start, rating 111, and has a top level of 115. However, she’s a non-winner. Even her effort rating 111 in the Hollindale was a bit non-winner’ish. She had every conceivable chance that day, but could not keep up with Above Deck when the sprint went on. We’ve assessed her at 112 here, with the possibility of a little bit of fitness on her side now, and marked her at $8.50.
BAZELLE makes a good roughie in this. She will get a soft lead, and often pops up in these Group 1 races. She has a top level 115, has comfortably performed at 112 and will get every chance here. She’s been out of sorts lately, however, which is why she’s long odds ($21 in current markets) however we’ve given her the 112 and still have her as a $9 chance. Nice each way chance.
RECLAIM is another roughie with a chance. While his top level to date has only been 111, this might be a horse with a new level 115/116 in him yet. He is drawn well and will probably push up within 4L of the lead on the fence. Last start in the Hollindale he was also a victim of the slow pace but made good strong late ground, rated 107, that was second up, he is a real chance of exceeding his previous best 111 here. We’ve marked him at 113, assessed him as a $13 chance, he’s currently $35 and better in real markets. Worth something each way also.
OCTAPUSSY has ability. She won in devastating fashion resuming, rated 107, then everything went wrong when she rated 108 second up, she is certainly at least a 112 mare on the make, however if she again gets back to last or near there she will have a lot of ground to make up in the slow pace. She might be one of many hard luck stories in this. We’ve given her 111 of her 112, and priced her at $14.
MAHTOUM will struggle with the lack of pace. This is another horse whose chances would be much greater if there were pace in the race, because he’s a grinding 1 pacer (like Xlerate) who will not be able to sit and sprint. In the Hollindale he sat on the pace, with Above Deck in the run, and when the sprint was on was unable to find another gear. Again, with an anticipated slow pace, he won’t be able to sprint with them. He has a top level 114 (3200m), was only able to rate 108 with every chance in the Hollindale, hard to see him going top level in this. We’ve given him 112, priced him $21.
