How The AFL TV Rights Battle Will Effect Rugby League

[League Freak™]

After watching the Sopranos I started to do a bit of channel surfing and comae across Eddie McGuire on the AFL Footy Show having his say on the battle for the AFL TV right.

If you dont know, Channels 7 and 10 have put in a joint bid and effectivly frozen Nine out.

Predictably, McGuire suggested that this move would be a disaster for the AFL and lets all hope that Nine secure the rights. :roll:


The thing is, with the AFL rights before the NRL rights, what ever decision is made by the AFL will have a HUGE baring on what Rugby League can expect to get.


If 7 and 10 manage to secure the AFL rights they will be looking to show and extra game compared to what the AFL shows now. Both have given a commitment to push AFL in NSW and QLD.

With 7 and 10 getting right behind AFL, the likleyhood that either would then bid for NRL TV rights is remote. Lets face it, neither 7 or 10 is about to buy the NRL Rights and then put them up against their AFL partner network.

That leave Channel 9.....and we all know what they will do if they are the sole bidder for Rugby League rights.

The NRL may have some room to work in with State Of Origin. A big ratings winner, a game that can be played mid week so it does clash with any other games. Both 7 and 9 would see the Origin as a key to helping with the ratings war both sides are currently fighting.

NRL regular season games rate well in NSW and QLD, but outside of those two state NRL club games mean very little to any of the networks. The same could be said for Test football and City vs Country.


It will be interesting to see how things pan out. What ever happens, I have a feeling Rugby League is going to get a deal that is below market value, that doesnt improve on coverage outside of NSW and QLD....and a deal that see's the game once again tied to Channel 9 for atleast another 4 years.

That's not good news for the game.

 

[DIEHARD]

The rights need to be broken into modules such as club football, state of origin and international football and sold independantly not as a total package.

Seven's move means massive trouble for the NRL. We are in position to be screwed over by Ch 9 again.

You do the math.

If Channel 9 secures this contract it will be something like two decades of being f**ked by Channel 9...

How could they let this happen to us.

 

[iggy plop]

NRL regular season games rate well in NSW and QLD, but outside of those two state NRL club games mean very little to any of the networks. The same could be said for Test football and City vs Country.


.

But the AFL rates very poorly in NSW and struggles for non-Lions games in QLD. It offers very little in the NSW and QLD markets (over half the country's population).

I can't understand why they see it as this great big national tv sporting code when in all honesty, it isn't. The game rates pathetically in the most populated state.

 

[League Freak™]

NRL regular season games rate well in NSW and QLD, but outside of those two state NRL club games mean very little to any of the networks. The same could be said for Test football and City vs Country.


.

But the AFL rates very poorly in NSW and struggles for non-Lions games in QLD. It offers very little in the NSW and QLD markets (over half the country's population).

I can't understand why they see it as this great big national tv sporting code when in all honesty, it isn't. The game rates pathetically in the most populated state.

Still...thats means in Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne you are assured of BIG ratings. Thrown in Lions games in QLD.....its a pretty good spread for the AFL.

In any case, 7 and 10 have made assurances to the AFL that they will do everything they can to promote the game in Sydney and Brisbane.


When you couple this with the fact that Channel 9 could end up with the NRL righst and the same setup we have no where only NSW and QLD are catered for.....once again Rugby League is on the back foot.


Rugby League really needed 7 and 10 to make this aggresive approch to them. The problem in in Rugby League....you get blanket coverage of NSW and QLD.....and NOTHING outside of that.

The Storm dont rate all that well in Melbourne while Adelaide and Perth.....they dont even have teams of their own to watch!


The AFL is simplay a more well rounded product to market across Australia.


Make no mistake....the fact Rugby League rats it backside off across NSW and QLD doesnt really matter to TV companies....all they worry about are the major TV markets in the big cities.

Rugby league provides big ratings in two big cities. AFL provides them in four....thats including Brisbane for the Lions matches.

 

[AdamH]

why can't league set up a dual-broadcasting deal like the AFL has.

Each network could have two matches per weekend, with Fox Sports grabbing the rest.

As incentive, one could gain the NRL Finals/GF rights and the other State of Origin. Both are rating winners.

 

[Kurt Angle]

Because the NRL's crown jewel is FNF.

Whichever of the 7/10 partners has AFL friday night football, will ensure the other won't put a decent program up against it.

That will leave only 9 to show FNF.

They will each have the rest of their weekend full of AFL, leaving no room for RL.

 

[Razor]

Lets face it, neither 7 or 10 is about to buy the NRL Rights and then put them up against their AFL partner network.

Yes they will. Just because they're partners doesn't mean they help each other out. 7 will rather you watched their network, than the AFL on 10, and 10 would rather you watched Channel 10 than the AFL on 7.

 

[League Freak™]

Lets face it, neither 7 or 10 is about to buy the NRL Rights and then put them up against their AFL partner network.

Yes they will. Just because they're partners doesn't mean they help each other out. 7 will rather you watched their network, than the AFL on 10, and 10 would rather you watched Channel 10 than the AFL on 7.

They wont because the AFL wont allow it.

 

[Man_of_Steel_1982]

Because the NRL's crown jewel is FNF.

Whichever of the 7/10 partners has AFL friday night football, will ensure the other won't put a decent program up against it.

That will leave only 9 to show FNF.

They will each have the rest of their weekend full of AFL, leaving no room for RL.

What if 10 has AFL on Saturday and 7 has it on Sunday.

Perhaps the NRL would be like this:
- Friday Night = Ch9
- Saturday Night = Ch7
- Sunday = Ch9/7/10?

 

[DIEHARD]

Scrooge-like rights bid feared by NRL By Roy Masters - March 18, 2005

Channel Nine may be the only player bidding for NRL rights should the united bid for AFL rights by channels Seven and Ten be successful.

And given owner Kerry Packer's past record of extracting the best deal for himself when rugby league has been on its knees begging, the code fears a pitiful payment.

Of course, Seven and Ten may also pitch for NRL rights, but insofar as both want three AFL games each and have committed to promote the code in NSW and Queensland, it's unlikely.

Fox Sports now televises three AFL games live and - under the Seven-Ten proposal - would be handed the worst two games of the AFL's eight-game week.

Nevertheless, the marginal value of NRL to Fox Sports, which now televises three of its five rugby league games live, would increase if it lost one AFL game.

Similarly, the NRL would be worth more to Nine if it were no longer televising Australian football.

However, Nine owns 50 per cent of Fox Sports, with News Ltd controlling the other half.

Rugby league chiefs fear a combined Nine-Fox Sports offer for rights which would not reflect the enhanced value of the code should the Seven-Ten joint venture be successful with the AFL.

For this reason, ARL chairman Colin Love, one of the league heavyweights discussing the issue over breakfast at Coogee yesterday, favours splitting the free-to-air and pay TV rights, obviously to create a bidding war between Nine and Fox Sports.

News Ltd, which owns half the NRL, can't really lose because money which it pays from its TV pocket ends up in its sports pocket.

Packer, though, won't like bidding against himself.

Long-term league men recall the 1990 bankruptcy of Ten when Packer managed to secure the rights and sell them back to Ten for a price lower than the NSW Rugby League's discounted offer to the on-its-knees network.

They also recall the 10-year deal forced upon them by Packer when peace between him and Rupert Murdoch was achieved at the end of the Super League war.

Still, news of the Seven-Ten bid didn't upset NRL chief executive David Gallop when he breakfasted with Love yesterday.

Gallop is seeking to line up the free-to-air and pay TV rights so they expire the same year.

Nine's rights conclude in 2007 and Fox Sports' finish a year earlier.

He is now in negotiations with Fox Sports for a further year of rights fees, meaning a 2007 finish for both.

Gallop said he was not surprised by the Seven-Ten AFL news.

"It was always possible," he said. "I still think we can do a good deal."

Asked the prospects of a single bid by Nine-Fox Sports, he replied: "We don't know who might be a player by the time they are negotiated. There are any number of permutations.

"I've been talking to Nine and Fox Sports the last few weeks but with the free-to-air rights still three years to go, there's not much we can do unless the broadcasters want to talk."

It is understood that part of Seven's offer to the AFL is handing over Melbourne's Telstra Dome stadium to the sport years earlier than the present agreement requires.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/League/Scroogelike-rights-bid-feared-by-NRL/2005/03/17/1110913738628.html

 

[Timbo]

The best thing the NRL could do would be to play total hardball and threaten to sell ALL rights to Fox.

Imagine how fast 9 would do what we wanted if they were suddenly faced with the prospect of no winter sport to show.

 

[RABK]

Rugby league provides big ratings in two big cities. AFL provides them in four

Just remember Sydney's size compared with other city's. Sydney Population would be past 5 million now and include the hunter and illawarra and your looking at 6 million people. Compared with melbourne which is about 3 million, adelaide which is about 1.5 million and perth which is 1.3 million. Sydney's population is also growing at the rate of 50,000 people a year. What im getting at is AFL may have more homelands but League's homeland is bigger then them all combined. I see no threat from a channel 10 and 7 led campain in Sydney.

 

[SalfordRedsWA]

1.8 million here in Perth Knight.
I just hope the 7/10 deal falls thru. Pray it be broken.

 

[El Diablo]

The best thing the NRL could do would be to play total hardball and threaten to sell ALL rights to Fox.

Imagine how fast 9 would do what we wanted if they were suddenly faced with the prospect of no winter sport to show.

under the anti-siphoning rules that wouldn't be allowed, I think.

 

[RABK]

Australia's Population has grown 2.5 million since 1994. Perth's Population was 1.25 million then. Are you saying that Perth is responsible for a quarter of Australia's total growth over the past ten years. I think not.

 

[League Freak™]

I see what your saying R&BK.....but you have to remember who is making the bids and what the ultimate goal is.


Sydney has the bhiggest population, but the 7 and 10 networks are looking for ratings across their major markets. Sydney is just one of those markets.

In Perth, Adelaide and Melbounre the AFL dominates the ratings and in those three cities you are assure of getting alot of advertising money at that time.

In Brisbane you are assured of advertising money for Lions games.



Yes Sydney is imports....but its not the be all and end all....in the biggest picture....all the newtorks in the different cities are just looking after themselves and in that case, the AFL is the more bankable product.

 

[LeagueXIII]

Populations are, including predicted growth:

CITIES
2002 2021 2051

SYDNEY 4,170.90 5,108.20 6,587.60
MELB 3,524.10 4,348.10 5,561.70
BRIS 1,689.10 2,481.10 3,776.90
PERTH 1,413.70 1,931.70 2,752.20
ADEL 1,114.30 1,190.70 1,241.70
HOBART 198.00 220.60 240.10
DARWIN 107.40 157.30 257.10
CANB 321.80 407.10 538.00


12,538.90 15,844.80 20,955.30


STATE
2002 2021 2051

NSW 6,640.40 7,868.70 9,593.20
VIC 4,872.50 5,782.50 6,971.70
QLD 3,707.20 5,416.10 8,093.90
WA 1,927.30 2,580.00 3,573.90
SA 1,520.20 1,602.80 1,615.50
TAS 472.70 520.30 552.20
NT 198.00 280.70 454.30
ACT 321.80 407.10 538.00


19,662.80 24,461.10 31,396.10


League is in a strong position. I wouldn't worry about SA but start pushing in WA.

 

[taipan]

Ch 7 has indicated that they are still interested in rugby league.
remember that if 7/10 get the AFL Fox will apparently miss out on one AFL match.With a 16 team comp there is a ready mad replacement for Fox,extra selling power in the FTA and Pay right.Ch 9 if they lose the AFL particularly in Melbourne,will be desperate to retain rugby league in its biggest and 3rd biggest market.If I remember correctly the NRL were first up with the pay TV contract,the the AFL got their contact which was larger.Whats to say the same thing wont happen in reverse with the NRL-ie the league makes a motza on the pay tv from say the current $45m per yr including promos and only $32m cash component,that this goes up 50% to say $70m with a $55m cash component.The ch9 FTA for the NRL can go to a conservatibe $30m from its steal deal of $15m .$100m per annum conservative,amybe more if the NRL,SOO and internationals are split up for negotiation.
I amstarting to think that the TV stations realise the rugby league is ideal for TV,ch9 is taking a hammering in the other ratings and knows league delivers in the ratings(equals advertising) and so do the other stations.Its not over till the fat lady sings IMO>

 

[bozza tgg]

From a different viewpoint all together, if 7/10 were to get AFL rights it would leave 9 with a vacant Friday night up against AFL footy in Melbourne.

In the past they used to show old reruns or Taggart telemovies up against the AFL, but this would be the prefect opportunity for the NRL to get on Melbourne TV with their "jewel in the crown".

The only way the game can grow down here is through exposure and this would be perfect, there would be short term pain as the game would be beaten in the ratings, but I can tell you I am sure more people would watch it at 8:30 on Friday night than would watch it 1:30 on Saturday morning.

 

[Man_of_Steel_1982]

Rugby league provides big ratings in two big cities. AFL provides them in four

Just remember Sydney's size compared with other city's. Sydney Population would be past 5 million now and include the hunter and illawarra and your looking at 6 million people. Compared with melbourne which is about 3 million, adelaide which is about 1.5 million and perth which is 1.3 million. Sydney's population is also growing at the rate of 50,000 people a year. What im getting at is AFL may have more homelands but League's homeland is bigger then them all combined. I see no threat from a channel 10 and 7 led campain in Sydney.

That's right.

NSW, QLD & ACT = well over 10mil.
VIC, SA, WA, TAS, NT = just on 9mil.

check it out at www.abs.gov.au