NRL insiders fear less interchanges could mean more blowouts
Roy MastersMay 13, 2019 — 4.08pm
Rugby league has a momentous decision to make in little over a month. It’s momentous because it is all to do with momentum, which now sits next to godliness in importance for the two rugby codes.
The NRL’s competition committee will decide in mid-June whether to reduce interchange by one or two players or maintain the status quo of eight replacements per team.
Blow-out: Josh Addo-Carr scores one of his two tries in Melbourne's demolition of Parramatta on Saturday.CREDIT:AAP
While a reduction in the number of replacements can be expected to increase attrition and therefore the number of line-breaks and number of tries scored, it can lead to blowouts. The tries could all come at the end of the game.
Television, which provides nearly 60 per cent of the NRL’s revenue, likes tries because they allow for commercial breaks but blowouts lead to falling ratings, as fans switch to other channels in the final 20 minutes of the match.
The good news for the NRL is that stoppages are down, resulting in less "dead time". Consequently, "ball-in-play" time as a percentage of the length of the game is up.
The bad news is line-breaks and tries remain constant. Offloads, which could be expected to rise with more action, have dropped from an average per match of 19.8 in 2018, when there was a penalty-athon, to 19 this season.
Perhaps the latitude referees allow in the ruck has resulted in slower play-the-balls. In other words, the defence has time to reset, therefore preventing line-breaks. Yet, the speed of the play-the-ball has quickened, according to NRL statistics. Work that one out.
It’s the eternal mystery of rugby league, which, apart from the people, has appealed to me all these years.
As Penrith’s James Maloney, a decade-long veteran of five clubs and winner of premierships at two, said after his team’s humiliation by Wests Tigers on Friday night: "If I could put my finger on it, it would be beautiful ... there are a million questions I don’t have the answer for." Even Melbourne’s Cameron Smith, the best player most of us have ever seen, told me after the Storm’s shock loss in the 2018 grand final: "Just when you think you’ve worked it out, the game bites you on the bum."
During the Magic Round at the weekend, Maloney’s team never recovered from the early momentum of Wests Tigers, who scored five tries in the first 13 minutes, far more points than the 17 scored in the entire round-four match when they last met. For the Panthers, it must have felt like they were trying to turn back the tide with a broom.
The NRL’s head of football, Graham Annesley, concedes momentum is the key force in today’s game and it will weigh heavily on the June decision whether to lower interchange.
"Momentum plays a massive part today," he said. "Teams get a roll on until the momentum seems to wear itself out and the other team begins to surge."
It’s not a new phenomenon. Momentum has been a force since the introduction of the 10-metre rule. A quick play-the ball against a retreating defence can lead to a team covering the length of the field in a set. A try follows and then another from the kick-off.
We have become accustomed to randomness of results from week to week. Eels coach Brad Arthur had plenty of adjectives, such as "soft" and "embarrassing", for Parramatta’s 64-10 loss to the Storm but no answer. "Why?" he wondered, following a spirited win against the Dragons the previous week.
But we are now seeing surges within games, changes of effort harder to read than Sanskrit, as a team finds energy at the beginning and end of a match, with little in between.
As Annesley asks, "Could a lowering of interchange lead to more randomness?"
Answering his own question, he says, "We would be more likely to get momentum swings. If a team gets on top and the defensive team is gassed out, it will lead to blowouts.
"It’s one of the problems with rule changes ... what will be the unintended consequences? If you combine a reduction in interchange with the modern impact of momentum, it makes it harder for the opposition to swing the momentum back their way."
Discuss. Personally I would love to see them go to 6.
Roy MastersMay 13, 2019 — 4.08pm
Rugby league has a momentous decision to make in little over a month. It’s momentous because it is all to do with momentum, which now sits next to godliness in importance for the two rugby codes.
The NRL’s competition committee will decide in mid-June whether to reduce interchange by one or two players or maintain the status quo of eight replacements per team.
Blow-out: Josh Addo-Carr scores one of his two tries in Melbourne's demolition of Parramatta on Saturday.CREDIT:AAP
While a reduction in the number of replacements can be expected to increase attrition and therefore the number of line-breaks and number of tries scored, it can lead to blowouts. The tries could all come at the end of the game.
Television, which provides nearly 60 per cent of the NRL’s revenue, likes tries because they allow for commercial breaks but blowouts lead to falling ratings, as fans switch to other channels in the final 20 minutes of the match.
The good news for the NRL is that stoppages are down, resulting in less "dead time". Consequently, "ball-in-play" time as a percentage of the length of the game is up.
The bad news is line-breaks and tries remain constant. Offloads, which could be expected to rise with more action, have dropped from an average per match of 19.8 in 2018, when there was a penalty-athon, to 19 this season.
Perhaps the latitude referees allow in the ruck has resulted in slower play-the-balls. In other words, the defence has time to reset, therefore preventing line-breaks. Yet, the speed of the play-the-ball has quickened, according to NRL statistics. Work that one out.
It’s the eternal mystery of rugby league, which, apart from the people, has appealed to me all these years.
As Penrith’s James Maloney, a decade-long veteran of five clubs and winner of premierships at two, said after his team’s humiliation by Wests Tigers on Friday night: "If I could put my finger on it, it would be beautiful ... there are a million questions I don’t have the answer for." Even Melbourne’s Cameron Smith, the best player most of us have ever seen, told me after the Storm’s shock loss in the 2018 grand final: "Just when you think you’ve worked it out, the game bites you on the bum."
During the Magic Round at the weekend, Maloney’s team never recovered from the early momentum of Wests Tigers, who scored five tries in the first 13 minutes, far more points than the 17 scored in the entire round-four match when they last met. For the Panthers, it must have felt like they were trying to turn back the tide with a broom.
The NRL’s head of football, Graham Annesley, concedes momentum is the key force in today’s game and it will weigh heavily on the June decision whether to lower interchange.
"Momentum plays a massive part today," he said. "Teams get a roll on until the momentum seems to wear itself out and the other team begins to surge."
It’s not a new phenomenon. Momentum has been a force since the introduction of the 10-metre rule. A quick play-the ball against a retreating defence can lead to a team covering the length of the field in a set. A try follows and then another from the kick-off.
We have become accustomed to randomness of results from week to week. Eels coach Brad Arthur had plenty of adjectives, such as "soft" and "embarrassing", for Parramatta’s 64-10 loss to the Storm but no answer. "Why?" he wondered, following a spirited win against the Dragons the previous week.
But we are now seeing surges within games, changes of effort harder to read than Sanskrit, as a team finds energy at the beginning and end of a match, with little in between.
As Annesley asks, "Could a lowering of interchange lead to more randomness?"
Answering his own question, he says, "We would be more likely to get momentum swings. If a team gets on top and the defensive team is gassed out, it will lead to blowouts.
"It’s one of the problems with rule changes ... what will be the unintended consequences? If you combine a reduction in interchange with the modern impact of momentum, it makes it harder for the opposition to swing the momentum back their way."
Discuss. Personally I would love to see them go to 6.
