Mackinnon Stakes - Flemington 4/11

[Macca_]

7-3.45 MOTOROLA MACKINNON STAKES 2000 M
Of $755000 Of $750000 and $5000 trophy. 1st $450000 and trophy of $5000, 2nd $135000, 3rd $67500, 4th $33750, 5th $18750, 6th $15000, 7th $15000, 8th $15000. Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 16+3 EM
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No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 15 58 (113)
2 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing C Newitt 8 58 (108.5)
3 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse C Munce 7 58 (114)
4 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Gauci 9 58 (115)
5 SPHENOPHYTA (NZ) Lee Freedman G Boss 2 58 (108)
6 IMPERIAL STRIDE (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor K McEvoy 5 58 (110)
7 ACCUMULATE (NZ) Bart Cummings Steven King 11 58 (91)
8 KING OF ASHFORD (NZ) Karen Zimmerman N Rawiller 14 58 (105)
9 TEMPLE HILLS (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 12 58 (99)
10 MOLOTOV Jim Conlan M J Zahra 10 58 (96)
11 HEADTURNER John Hawkes D Beadman 4 57.5 (107)
12 GROWL (NZ) David Hayes C Williams 1 57.5 (102.5)
13 AQUA D'AMORE Gai Waterhouse S Baster 6 55.5 (108)
14 LEGS (NZ) Kevin Gray S W Arnold 3 55 (107)
15 PURDE (NZ) David Hayes D Dunn 13 55 (97)

Form - http://www.rsb.net.au/PUBLISHING/DOWNLOADS/FREEFORM/RD0411FLEM.asp?racenum=07

 

[Macca_]

Trap race for mine...

Got some out of form runners heading to the Cup, some runners backing up from the Cox Plate and a number of others with question marks over them.

Good look at the form needed here

 

[miccle]

Definitely a good look at the form needed - I could box up eight horses right now and still not be sure, but for some reason I think I'll just stick to Desert War here

 

[Macca_]

Oh no miccle don't do it son :lol:

The horse doesn't know Melbourne from Moree...

 

[miccle]

Sorry Macca.. I know there are so many claims against the horse and it's almost impossible, but I've told myself to back my gut instincts after I talked myself out of throwing $50 on the nose of Fields of Omagh last weekend.

 

[Nuffs]

Desert War hates Melbourne almost as much as I do

but if it runs to potential then it could win this well

 

[Nuffs]

i'm not pushing anyone to back/lay Desert War, just giving this facts:

4 starts in Melb

2004 Caulfield Cup beaten 24L. that was after a 800m jump in distance after winning the Epsom two weeks before - forget the run

2005 Cox Plate beaten 9.4L. handled the track? the wet? - i can forgive the run

2005 Mackinnon beaten 2.2L. good run, but maybe should have done a touch more - ok run

2005 Emirates beaten 8.2L. drew outside barrier to cross near lead in fast race, but still disappointed. was his 7th start that prep and he normally only went to 5 runs each prep - had enough and needed spell?

well i've almost convinced myself that he CAN run in Melb. legitimate excuses in every start except last years Mackinnon beaten 2.2L.

he could be the smokey. don't touch the NSW odds though

 

[Macca_]

I'm no knock for him. I've backed him a number of times. But over the mile... 2000m reads 1 3rd from 5 goes.

There's some excuses there nuffs thats for sure. But he's overcome some of those things to win races or be placed in his Sydney races.

Will be his 6th start this prep on Saturday too.

He wouldn't shock and I don't see a lot of speed in the race which will mean he'll be up there with a shot down the straight. I can't imagine he'll be left alone like that run over 1900m at Rosehill when he beat Eremein either... I just expect a few of the others to finish the 2000m a bit stronger than him.

As I day, wouldn't shock though...

 

[Macca_]

I'd want more than 7's though....

Fixed Odds -

Sportsbet No. Runner Win Place
35104 EL SEGUNDO 2.25 1.25
35105 SPHENOPHYTA 7.00 2.20
35106 IMPERIAL STRIDE 7.00 2.20
35113 AQUA DAMORE 7.00 2.20
35103 DESERT WAR 7.00 2.20
35110 MOLOTOV 17.00 4.20
35112 GROWL 21.00 5.00
35114 LEGS 21.00 5.00
35109 TEMPLE HILLS 26.00 6.00
35108 KING OF ASHFORD 26.00 6.00
35101 RAILINGS 35.00 7.80
35111 HEADTURNER 35.00 7.80
35102 ROMAN ARCH 51.00 11.00
35115 PURDE 101.00 21.00
35107 ACCUMULATE 101.00 21.00

 

[miccle]

Hmmm on review of the 7's I might not touch that one!

The 17/4.20 of Molotov should be closer to what I'd put Desert War at

El Segundo is short as hell considering it's huge run on the weekend too. Not saying it won't do it again, but it's a hell of a big ask.

 

[Macca_]

I plan to have a little look at Molotov... Nice smokey in this.

 

[Surely]

At WFA El Segundo is clearly the best horse in the race, by a long way.

 

[Macca_]

Macs Numbers -
14,4,13,8,3,9

Going for an upset here. Hoping that Seachange has won earlier in the day and enhanced the form of the kiwi mare - Legs (14). She won the Kelt Stakes last start in a time that was 3 seconds faster then the Cox Plate last week and the Kelt was run on a dead track! She beat home Kerry O'reilly who ran well in the Geelong Cup and also Seachange who looks a very very good horse. Unlike a number of others who are maybe here for a Cup hitout or an after thought, she looks on target for this and at 21's she'll do me.

El Segundo (4) will be hard to beat. Cracking run in the Cox Plate last week and is a model of consistancy.

Going with the Cox Plate form again and throwing in Aqua D'Amore (13) for 3rd. She's racing really well and I like sticking with mares when they have form, they tend to hold it.

King of Ashford (8) was a big run in the Coongy. I'm rating that form with the winner Maybe Better. This guy got well back that day and came home nicely for second. Barrier 14 means he'll go back again and be charging late.

Desert War (3) will be thereabouts. He looks the definite leader in this and not much else speed. They won't want to let him dictate terms like he did in Hill Stakes 3 starts back or they might not catch him. If they don't let him get away, he won't get a strong 2000m. And it's Melbourne for Gai and DW.

Also give Temple Hills (9) a chance to run well. The jump to 58kgs worries me a bit otherwise I may have had him higher. Comes through the Coongy form and was just as a good a run as King of Ashford. Weight difference here of 3.5kgs though.

 

[jc155776]

Been an El Segundo fan since watching it a year and a half ago in a group 3.

IF he runs its a show in.

Big IF though. Rains been coming down.

 

[chili pepper]

At WFA El Segundo is clearly the best horse in the race, by a long way.

So true but the quick back-up does not suit him.

Hopefully he wins after last weeks traversty.

I think Headturner is the smokie - I can excuse 1 poor run at Caufield. He certainly isn't the 1st and wont be the last. Flemington suits and is one of the classiest horses in the field. Worth an E/W bet

 

[Moffo]

El Seg won't win, i think a roughy will. just not sure which one :lol:

 

[miccle]

Definitely a good look at the form needed - I could box up eight horses right now and still not be sure, but for some reason I think I'll just stick to Desert War here

$20 well spent here, and I stuck to my gut instincts.

 

[Macca_]

He wouldn't shock and I don't see a lot of speed in the race which will mean he'll be up there with a shot down the straight. I can't imagine he'll be left alone like that run over 1900m at Rosehill when he beat Eremein either... I just expect a few of the others to finish the 2000m a bit stronger than him.

Desert War (3) will be thereabouts. He looks the definite leader in this and not much else speed. They won't want to let him dictate terms like he did in Hill Stakes 3 starts back or they might not catch him. If they don't let him get away, he won't get a strong 2000m. And it's Melbourne for Gai and DW.

Well that was easy.

It confirms the track bias for being on the rails. With no real speed in this race and that bias in play, he became a very good bet.

 

[Moffo]

he was wayyy too good, underrated horse

 

[chili pepper]

he was wayyy too good, underrated horse

With a massive help from the track. El Segundo is a much better horse