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It is the eve of the Origin period. Over the next eight weeks we will see if Penrith are a real contender or if they are still a year away from their premiership window open. With the noose tightened around Parramatta, there appear to be three teams who are the clear pacesetters in Cronulla, Brisbane and North Queensland. More on why Melbourne isnt counted among them later. There are a number of teams a step below them, but none have been consistent and traded blows with the best like Penrith.
Season So Far
Lets go through the season so far and take a look at where this side fits in. Firstly the obvious. Penrith have had a historically tight start to the season. The average margin of 3 points a game is the lowest at this point of a season in this leagues history. This reflects the consistent effort weve seen from the side in applying themselves even when theyve fallen behind. A closer look at each game, however, also shows that the side has so far been incapable of closing out games. The easy explanation would be to point to the draw. Penrith have had the toughest draw to start the season of any club. They have played seven of their nine games against current Top Eight sides. This compares to Parramattas run which looks set to be rendered irrelevant. Further context to the ladder would be Melbournes two games against top sides, the Sharks, Cowboys and Bulldogs five and the Broncos four. Penrith have had comparatively tough opposition compared to those around them on the ladder. Tough opposition coupled with good application certainly makes close games understandable. How have they faired against those top sides though? Three wins and four losses. Tight losses, but losses all the same. Again this compares to Melbournes zero from two, Brisbanes two from two, Cowboys three from five, the Eels four from seven, Canterburys two from four, and Cronullas impressive four from five. This, coupled with Penriths four all being tight, competitive losses, suggests that Penrith deserves to be considered alongside Melbourne and Canterbury in the chasing pack.
Front Row
That leads me to going through whats working well at the moment and what isnt. Ill start with the positives. Props. Coming into their fiftieth season, the club had obviously identified the need for more grunt up front as we had witnessed the pack get outmuscled consistently in 2015. They added Merrin and Matagi, along with ushering in the first of a bounty of talented young props the club has at its disposal in Latu and Fisher-Harris. Both have been somewhat patchy, but have certainly shown numerous flashes of being capable of dominating at this level with aggressive running, deft hands and at times rugged defence. On their best day, these guys have cracked open games, and on their worst they have been part of an effective team effort up front. They have effectively replaced, and upgrade, Kite and Plum. Merrin has delivered on expectation. As simple as that. He is a rep quality middle forward with great footwork close to the line, great workrate and consistently delivers strong metres. Campbell-Gillard similarly is turning into a representative player in waiting, adding some brutal defence to his usual strong and consistent running game. What has really allowed Penrith to dominate up front this year is having strong role players in the prop rotation with Latimore, Matagi and Mckendry all contributing solidly to ensure the side can match up even when the starting props go off. This has certainly come through in the stats also if we can consider a few imperfect stats which back up the eye test. Penriths pack ranks 5th in the league in run metres. Only one of the sides they have matched up against have not been in the top ten of this stat. In all but two games they have made more metres than the opposition. All games have been very close in this regard though. So they have played sides that statistically have good go forward, and they have remained effective. This continues the general theme of Penrith being able to match up with the best sides, but not pull definitively clear.
Outside Backs
On the subject of metres gained, Mansour has certainly re-affirmed his status as one of the games top wingers. His key weaknesses going into the season were his ability to diffuse the high ball and his decision making in defence. Despite defending next to the leaky sieve that is a Soward/Hiku combination, he has acquitted himself admirably, plugging gaps left by those players on a number of occasions. His hit ups are invaluable. Hike has had a mixed start to the season. He can lay a shot on, he can miss a tackle, he has a deadly offload and can find the try line. Overall his recruitment has been handy, particularly with the loss of Whare. Youd have to wonder if his best position is wing though. Blake has come along in leaps and bounds, both in defence and ball handling, while his confidence appears to be growing. He is keeping his game simple, which is proving effective, although he certainly has more tricks in the bag to show us yet. Finally, Watene-Zelesniak has had a quiet start to the year, but works hard and also appears to be building in confidence and form. The outside backs are coming into pretty strong form, but it their effectiveness has also been limited by a lack of quality ball. With 11 line breaks and 11 try between the outside backs, the picture continues to emerge that Penrith have been playing a less than flamboyant brand of football. The opposition discussed earlier certainly plays a role in this and upcoming fixtures could see this open up.
Spine
As we all know, the spine has a great to deal to say about why Penrith are performing and playing the way they are. Compared to previous seasons, the injury toll has been manageable. Like previous seasons though, there have been injuries to key spine players. Penriths recent win over Canberra was just the second game the first choice spine had played together in forty games. Let that sink in for a minute. Further, a good chunk of those has been with two or even three members missing. This season has seen Moylan missing for four weeks and Segeyaro seven. If you want to include Martin in this equation, go ahead and chalk up another sixteen games or more games gone now. Penrith havent had any chance over the past 18 months to build any fluency and cohesive structures in attack or defence for that matter. Furthermore, the side has constantly been missing key supporting cast members, meaning they have had to pare of certain aspects of the game plan. Remember those glorious, sweeping backline plays which would end with Moylan putting a back over in 2014? We havent seen much of that in the past 18 months and the fact is, without Moylan, Penrith have very poor attacking shape and execution. Luckily he is back and he has hit the ground running. He has managed to look rusty by his lofty standards, while at the same time failing to put a foot wrong. When Moylan was injured, he asked if he could help out with the coaching staff of the U20s. He is a player who doesnt rely on speed, freakish acceleration or brute strength. He is a smart player, works relentlessly on his game and has exceptional timing. Examples like that suggest to me that he is not nearly finished developing his game and we have seen it every time he has come back from a rep team he seems to learn and come back a better player. This season he has stepped up in defence, organising the team on the goal line, staying in the line at times, and crucially his positioning and first contact have improved to the point where he has made a number of try saving tackles, less than twelve months after being as a weak defensive fullback following City Country last year. Moylan is undoubtedly the key for Penrith and you can already see him taking control of this side. Whether he will be pulling the strings from fullback for the next decade, or five eighth, is the million dollar question. Onto the other members of the spine and we have Soward who has had an indifferent season. His defence has been suspect and he has frequently taken poor options in attack. Still, he has also won us games, and has by far the best kicking game in the club. Wallace is a puzzle. He did a bang up job at hooker. Not a flashy player, but solid as a rock in defence, provided good service and took good options. I think last weekend Segeyaro really showed that game breaking ability that Penrith lack with Wallace controlling the ruck. Segeyaro has had a very disrupted 18 months and will take some time to get back into his groove, but his injection against Canberra showed the path to this side being able to put the foot on the throat when leading. He is the type of player who will punish you when youre tired, hanging in the game desperately.
Back Row
If you were to name one other player at Penrith who has that same freakish ability to create an opportunity, it would be Bryce Cartwright. Typically when a player has spent a year or two in the league, opposition start to get a handle on their game and they need to build their game to remain effective. Then there are some players who just cant be figured out. The comparisons I alway draw to Cartwright is Stephen Larkham and our very own Luke Lewis. In their pomp, they had that uncanny ability to seemingly slide through defensive lines, even when there is plenty of coverage. When youre trying to stop Cartwright, you need to keep in mind that he may throw his 106kg frame at you, he may kick, he may pass, he may step and he may do all of it in one play. He plays at the line and having an incredible skill set within such a powerful frame makes him very tough to defend. He has his defensive issues no doubt and that has always been the question mark. The star junior who has the ball on a string and will make every side he wants regardless of his defensive application because he is just that good. Having had some career threatening injuries, it is clear the guy has a lot of drive and you would have to hope the club has the culture and the senior players in place to drive him forward as it is the only part of his game holding him back from being one of the top handful of forwards in the game. On the other side of the field, you have somewhat of a polar opposite. Yeo is no frills, hardworking, reliable and getting better every week. Many have drawn comparisons to Gavin Cooper and it isnt a long bow to draw. Yeo runs increasingly nice lines, uses his big body to crash over the advantage line and win fast play the balls, is solid in defence and has the versatility to cover centre without losing much. We will see how far this extends when he runs out on the wing for Country today. Rounding out the squad is Peachey, the enigma. Another guy with a huge bag of tricks, great elusiveness, acceleration, speed and surprising strength. Like Segeyaro, he has the ability to make opposition defence look amateur. Unfortunately for Penrith he has been very inconsistently effective this season. My theory is that he has generally been out of luck in terms of match situations which he naturally thrives in. Penrith have played close, tight, evenly matched games. These guys are working with very little space and time. Peachey needs that line back peddling slightly or broken slightly and he becomes one of the most dangerous players on the field. We may see him come into his own against more frail teams over the next few weeks, however, he needs to learn how to make an impact in these tight, pressure filled games.
Summary
All in all, Penrith have guys through the 17 who have performed well on an individual basis on balance. This hasnt exactly converted into a well oiled machine and there is a lot of work to pull together all of these performances into a quality football team. Attitude is one half of footy though, and it is clear that they have that in spades. They are playing for each other, showing pride in their jerseys and on the back of this, they have been at the plate swinging at the bottom of the ninth, every weekend, regardless of their opponent. You cant play the top sides every week forever though and that means there is an opportunity to take a lot of the hard work this team is doing, and start to get some rewards. The run over the next two month Origin period looks like this for Penrith:
Run to Come
New Zealand, Gold Coast, BYE, Melbourne, Manly, BYE, South Sydney, Wests Tigers, Cronulla
Should Win
Within this run is five teams below Penrith. All have shown positive signs at stages of the season, but have also looked completely out of their depth at times. The Warriors are in turmoil, have key injuries and have no more than a few wins against weak sides to their name. Gold Coast have wandered off a cliff like meerkats as is customary these days for the club. Manly have shown signs of life this season, however, have mixed wins against average teams, with losses to average teams and quality teams. Souths again, having appeared strong early, have been shown up against better opposition and weak both. A pattern is starting to emerge. I dont think I need to cover Wests Tigers. Suffice it to say, that Penrith will start strong favourites in each of these games.
Key Games
Lets take a look at the other two fixtures now. First the Storm who we play on a Saturday, three days after State of Origin One. Now Origin is nowhere near the bane it once was for Melbourne, however, as always, Cronk and Smith will be combatants, Those guys are getting older and have had serious issues combining this season until they put together a few clinical displays weak opposition. Lets take a look at that. Melbourne have played seven games against bottom eight teams. They have played two games against top eight sides. Their record stands at seven wins and two losses. Take a guess at who their two losses were against. Melbourne have had by far the easiest run of any side. They have shown encouraging signs in the last fortnight, and you can never discount Melbournes ability to craft a perfectly paced season. Then there is what some would consider a hoodoo, but what I would consider a long run of losses to a team who have been consistently better over a decade long period.
Finally we get to Cronulla. These guys are the real deal. They have an impressive pack that mixes size with skill and depth. The backline has speed to burn and the spine has match winners up and down. They have an outstanding mix of youth and experience, freakish skill and crafty guile. Most importantly they are getting it done on the field. They have played the best and theyve beaten the best. There is no reason why Cronulla cant win their maiden premiership this season. Happily Penrith were able to get a pretty solid marker in the sand when they played Cronulla two weeks ago at their home ground where they have gone unbeaten this year. Our pack matched their pack, they lifted when they looked down and they came up with the big play when the game was on the line. Who stepped up though? James Fisher-Harris. Then Soward missed a conversion. A few things will be different this time around. Cronulla will not be at home. They will be without Fifita and Gallen. They may even be without Maloney and Graham. While Penrith have guys in Mansour, Moylan and Cartwright who could easily fit into the New South Wales side, itd be safe to expect Merrin is the only guy at Penrith to feature in the series.
Expectations
Taking all that onboard, it seems a reasonable assumption to say that Penrith have the opportunity to put forward their credentials with five games they should win, and two games that they should be up to their eyeballs in going into the final minute. Luckily they should have a fair idea what that feels like. If Penrith can demonstrate the same level of application, along with continuing to improve parts of their game as they have in the first third of the season, they can definitely come out of this period with six wins. Historically 24 points would be good for third to fifth. So fourth sounds about right this season given we seem to have three teams who have set the pace and a bunch of others that look a little way off finding the kind of consistency to string together enough quality performances just yet. Thats a pretty good place to launch a charge into the finals, particularly when Penrith have what shapes to be a light run in with just two current top eight teams.
Penrith seem to be a star half short of putting together a true challenge, however, sitting at the head of the chasing pack with a young, improving team is a great spot to be. Whether it means being a smokey this season or building the foundations of a squad that can contend into the 2020s. So what do Penrith need to do to get to that point? Id say there is plenty of work to do. Play to the save level as they have for the first two months and they could probably win four games but that would simply put the side right at the edge of the eight and would probably suggest they arent going to be fighting it out with those top three sides.
Defensive Opportunities
Heres all the opportunities. Missed tackles, attacking structure, discipline, finishing and variety in attack. Ill start on missed tackles as it is the most glaring opportunity. Premierships are built on defence and while Penrith have done well to keep scores respectable, they are putting a huge amount of pressure on themselves by missing plenty. Who knows, maybe this has had an effect at the other end as weve seen numerous close losses with Penrith unable to pull out the big play in the final minutes. Either way, our defence is very committed and I think we are fairly well organised. Our scramble defence has played a big part in keeping us in games and negating the effects of missed tackles. Penrith are also doing fine reducing space by slowing down the play the ball and getting up quickly in defence. Put all that together and cut a good chunk of missed tackles out and Penrith are going to be a very tough side to score against. Looking at the stats, the issue is clearly the fringes and this lines up with most of the post match analysis. Soward, Hiku, Cartwright and Blake have the most glaring missed tackle and effective tackle counts. Cartwright has 34 missed at just under 4 per game and 88% effective tackles. Blake is surprisingly up there with these guys having missed 19 tackles at 2.5 per game at 82% effective. Now both these guys have work to do, but I think these stats are massively blown out by the fact that teams were running plays down this edge all day long trying to target Martin when he was fit. On the other side, there is Soward at 37 missed at 4 per game, and 76% effectiveness, while Hiku has 32 misses at 4 per game at 80%. I think its obvious to anyone watching that Blake, Cartwright and Hiku have no issue putting their body on the line or contact. They need to continue working on their technique, but probably more to the point, their decision making. Frustratingly, I think a lot of this just has to come with time. These are new combinations in defence and on the back of 18 months of a rotating door on the edges, time together may just be the answer. Soward is another story and he simply needs to be better. The last few years he has been fine. With a player like Soward, there is always the suggestion of a bodyguard. If Penrith were to assign Soward a bodyguard, the man would definitely be Yeo. He has by far the best numbers and misses less than 4% of tackles. His game is building nicely, and this could really solidify him as an integral member of this side. Adding to all this is the removal of Taylor who was like a blackhole in defence, racking up big counts, and missing very few. The team will take a while to adapt to not having a guy like that, but that is the price you pay for looking for go forward and attacking threat. The final piece of the puzzle here is Moylan. His defensive game has picked up massively since he went down with injury. You hear a lot about what the great fullbacks bring to a defensive structure and Moylan needs to be our general in defence. He is an incredibly smart player and reads the play as fast and as accurately as any player in the game right now. As captain, we will see him continue to build this part of his game and hopefully we start to see some cohesiveness in the defensive line resulting in less missed tackles.
Discipline
In the same space, Penrith need to improve their discipline, particularly in key moments of the game and with the opposition coming out of their own half. Im sure this is a universal experience for fans, but whenever watching Penrith, they have always struck me as a dumb team. I dont mean that in a mean sense, but they consistently give away unnecessary, poorly timed penalties, errors or offloads, Over the past four years, this has certainly improved and I think a big part of this is down to an increasingly effective control of the ruck. Penrith have conceded 71 penalties and received 67. Not too bad but these are all the little things that can ruin good work elsewhere, and we certainly saw that against Canberra last weekend with ball handling. I cant find too many stats on who has taken the penalties to suggest where the problem is, but it doesnt feel like anyone in particular. This is one for Griffin and Moylan to sort out, but certainly not the biggest issue.
Maximising Strengths
I think the issues above arent insurmountable by any means. Theres a decent chance that time together alone could be enough to significantly improve. On the other hand, time alone wont solve our attacking issues. Time will definitely help, with Moylan and Segeyaro working their way back into our structure, things will improve, but I see us playing a rather narrow game currently and a number of our attacking threats are not being engaged effectively. Currently, Penrith are relying too much on individual brilliance, grubbers and offloads to create tries. With Segeyaro and Moylan back from injury, there are significantly more players available to make that freak play which will help. Obviously its going ok as they are winning games against top sides. That crucial try to steal a close win, or the try to take the game away with twenty minutes remaining is what is lacking. Penrith lead the league in offloads by a long way. Cartwright, Merrin, Latimore and Hiku are the kings, but not the only guys creating this second phase play. What Penrith lack, and have done for years, is effective support play. If Moylan is to stay at fullback, this is another area he can improve. He and our other backs, Segeyaro and Peachey, need to be on Cartwrights wing whenever he gets the ball. While Penrith force the opposition to make more tackles through offloads, and break up defensive structures, they are not leading to line breaks regularly enough. How often have you seen a Cartwright offload onto a back who bursts through the line and streaks down field. With offloading merchants across the park, this should be a key source of points.
Attacking Structure
The biggest opportunity lies in the attacking structure. Individual brilliance, second phase play and strong application will only take Penrith so far towards a premiership. At a certain point, they will come up against sides with excellent defensive structure, and they will need an organised and effective attack that can work the opposition around and systematically break them down. This is what the top sides can do and why they constantly win games when they are off their game. With the spine finally assembled and fit, we will get to see just where they are at over the next few weeks. Moylan needs to take control of our attack in the opposition twenty. They need to work the defence around, get early ball to Moylan to feed a backline that has featured making dummy half runs, kick returns and popping up around the ground to contribute. Having Segeyaro at dummy half provides a great threat there, and it puts the defence in two minds, providing Soward or Wallace a bit more time to feed the ball wide. Moylan will bring poise at the last pass, but they also need to improve our depth and decoy runners. There are plenty of guys who can ball play on the edges with Cartwright and Peachey rarely receiving the ball with any sort of space or structure around them. Guys like Yeo (and Grevsmuhl if he comes early) need to provide the strong short ball option to again create uncertainty and create space if the ball goes further out.
Prognosis
There is plenty of positives to come out of the first phase of the season for Penrith. More than anything, having a relatively injury free side is a real bonus. It also means there are a huge amount of what ifs. Nobody could say how the side will progress and develop their defensive and offensive structures as they have had zero continuity and have played with huge holes across the park for so long. Griffin has shown he is willing to make the big calls, he is willing to give the young guys a chance and he has the team playing for their lives. There are plenty of areas which should improve over time spent playing together. I cant wait to see what Griffin has in terms of taking this talented squad and pulling together a well rounded game, tapping into the vast skill set in the squad and managing the weaknesses. More than anything, having proven their mettle in tough games against top sides, they have the opportunity to work some real fluency into their game against some less credentialed opponents. Penrith have a lot of pieces falling into place at the right time in order to announce themselves as a contender this year and in the future. Strap yourselves in and enjoy the rest of the season, it should be a good one!
Season So Far
Lets go through the season so far and take a look at where this side fits in. Firstly the obvious. Penrith have had a historically tight start to the season. The average margin of 3 points a game is the lowest at this point of a season in this leagues history. This reflects the consistent effort weve seen from the side in applying themselves even when theyve fallen behind. A closer look at each game, however, also shows that the side has so far been incapable of closing out games. The easy explanation would be to point to the draw. Penrith have had the toughest draw to start the season of any club. They have played seven of their nine games against current Top Eight sides. This compares to Parramattas run which looks set to be rendered irrelevant. Further context to the ladder would be Melbournes two games against top sides, the Sharks, Cowboys and Bulldogs five and the Broncos four. Penrith have had comparatively tough opposition compared to those around them on the ladder. Tough opposition coupled with good application certainly makes close games understandable. How have they faired against those top sides though? Three wins and four losses. Tight losses, but losses all the same. Again this compares to Melbournes zero from two, Brisbanes two from two, Cowboys three from five, the Eels four from seven, Canterburys two from four, and Cronullas impressive four from five. This, coupled with Penriths four all being tight, competitive losses, suggests that Penrith deserves to be considered alongside Melbourne and Canterbury in the chasing pack.
Front Row
That leads me to going through whats working well at the moment and what isnt. Ill start with the positives. Props. Coming into their fiftieth season, the club had obviously identified the need for more grunt up front as we had witnessed the pack get outmuscled consistently in 2015. They added Merrin and Matagi, along with ushering in the first of a bounty of talented young props the club has at its disposal in Latu and Fisher-Harris. Both have been somewhat patchy, but have certainly shown numerous flashes of being capable of dominating at this level with aggressive running, deft hands and at times rugged defence. On their best day, these guys have cracked open games, and on their worst they have been part of an effective team effort up front. They have effectively replaced, and upgrade, Kite and Plum. Merrin has delivered on expectation. As simple as that. He is a rep quality middle forward with great footwork close to the line, great workrate and consistently delivers strong metres. Campbell-Gillard similarly is turning into a representative player in waiting, adding some brutal defence to his usual strong and consistent running game. What has really allowed Penrith to dominate up front this year is having strong role players in the prop rotation with Latimore, Matagi and Mckendry all contributing solidly to ensure the side can match up even when the starting props go off. This has certainly come through in the stats also if we can consider a few imperfect stats which back up the eye test. Penriths pack ranks 5th in the league in run metres. Only one of the sides they have matched up against have not been in the top ten of this stat. In all but two games they have made more metres than the opposition. All games have been very close in this regard though. So they have played sides that statistically have good go forward, and they have remained effective. This continues the general theme of Penrith being able to match up with the best sides, but not pull definitively clear.
Outside Backs
On the subject of metres gained, Mansour has certainly re-affirmed his status as one of the games top wingers. His key weaknesses going into the season were his ability to diffuse the high ball and his decision making in defence. Despite defending next to the leaky sieve that is a Soward/Hiku combination, he has acquitted himself admirably, plugging gaps left by those players on a number of occasions. His hit ups are invaluable. Hike has had a mixed start to the season. He can lay a shot on, he can miss a tackle, he has a deadly offload and can find the try line. Overall his recruitment has been handy, particularly with the loss of Whare. Youd have to wonder if his best position is wing though. Blake has come along in leaps and bounds, both in defence and ball handling, while his confidence appears to be growing. He is keeping his game simple, which is proving effective, although he certainly has more tricks in the bag to show us yet. Finally, Watene-Zelesniak has had a quiet start to the year, but works hard and also appears to be building in confidence and form. The outside backs are coming into pretty strong form, but it their effectiveness has also been limited by a lack of quality ball. With 11 line breaks and 11 try between the outside backs, the picture continues to emerge that Penrith have been playing a less than flamboyant brand of football. The opposition discussed earlier certainly plays a role in this and upcoming fixtures could see this open up.
Spine
As we all know, the spine has a great to deal to say about why Penrith are performing and playing the way they are. Compared to previous seasons, the injury toll has been manageable. Like previous seasons though, there have been injuries to key spine players. Penriths recent win over Canberra was just the second game the first choice spine had played together in forty games. Let that sink in for a minute. Further, a good chunk of those has been with two or even three members missing. This season has seen Moylan missing for four weeks and Segeyaro seven. If you want to include Martin in this equation, go ahead and chalk up another sixteen games or more games gone now. Penrith havent had any chance over the past 18 months to build any fluency and cohesive structures in attack or defence for that matter. Furthermore, the side has constantly been missing key supporting cast members, meaning they have had to pare of certain aspects of the game plan. Remember those glorious, sweeping backline plays which would end with Moylan putting a back over in 2014? We havent seen much of that in the past 18 months and the fact is, without Moylan, Penrith have very poor attacking shape and execution. Luckily he is back and he has hit the ground running. He has managed to look rusty by his lofty standards, while at the same time failing to put a foot wrong. When Moylan was injured, he asked if he could help out with the coaching staff of the U20s. He is a player who doesnt rely on speed, freakish acceleration or brute strength. He is a smart player, works relentlessly on his game and has exceptional timing. Examples like that suggest to me that he is not nearly finished developing his game and we have seen it every time he has come back from a rep team he seems to learn and come back a better player. This season he has stepped up in defence, organising the team on the goal line, staying in the line at times, and crucially his positioning and first contact have improved to the point where he has made a number of try saving tackles, less than twelve months after being as a weak defensive fullback following City Country last year. Moylan is undoubtedly the key for Penrith and you can already see him taking control of this side. Whether he will be pulling the strings from fullback for the next decade, or five eighth, is the million dollar question. Onto the other members of the spine and we have Soward who has had an indifferent season. His defence has been suspect and he has frequently taken poor options in attack. Still, he has also won us games, and has by far the best kicking game in the club. Wallace is a puzzle. He did a bang up job at hooker. Not a flashy player, but solid as a rock in defence, provided good service and took good options. I think last weekend Segeyaro really showed that game breaking ability that Penrith lack with Wallace controlling the ruck. Segeyaro has had a very disrupted 18 months and will take some time to get back into his groove, but his injection against Canberra showed the path to this side being able to put the foot on the throat when leading. He is the type of player who will punish you when youre tired, hanging in the game desperately.
Back Row
If you were to name one other player at Penrith who has that same freakish ability to create an opportunity, it would be Bryce Cartwright. Typically when a player has spent a year or two in the league, opposition start to get a handle on their game and they need to build their game to remain effective. Then there are some players who just cant be figured out. The comparisons I alway draw to Cartwright is Stephen Larkham and our very own Luke Lewis. In their pomp, they had that uncanny ability to seemingly slide through defensive lines, even when there is plenty of coverage. When youre trying to stop Cartwright, you need to keep in mind that he may throw his 106kg frame at you, he may kick, he may pass, he may step and he may do all of it in one play. He plays at the line and having an incredible skill set within such a powerful frame makes him very tough to defend. He has his defensive issues no doubt and that has always been the question mark. The star junior who has the ball on a string and will make every side he wants regardless of his defensive application because he is just that good. Having had some career threatening injuries, it is clear the guy has a lot of drive and you would have to hope the club has the culture and the senior players in place to drive him forward as it is the only part of his game holding him back from being one of the top handful of forwards in the game. On the other side of the field, you have somewhat of a polar opposite. Yeo is no frills, hardworking, reliable and getting better every week. Many have drawn comparisons to Gavin Cooper and it isnt a long bow to draw. Yeo runs increasingly nice lines, uses his big body to crash over the advantage line and win fast play the balls, is solid in defence and has the versatility to cover centre without losing much. We will see how far this extends when he runs out on the wing for Country today. Rounding out the squad is Peachey, the enigma. Another guy with a huge bag of tricks, great elusiveness, acceleration, speed and surprising strength. Like Segeyaro, he has the ability to make opposition defence look amateur. Unfortunately for Penrith he has been very inconsistently effective this season. My theory is that he has generally been out of luck in terms of match situations which he naturally thrives in. Penrith have played close, tight, evenly matched games. These guys are working with very little space and time. Peachey needs that line back peddling slightly or broken slightly and he becomes one of the most dangerous players on the field. We may see him come into his own against more frail teams over the next few weeks, however, he needs to learn how to make an impact in these tight, pressure filled games.
Summary
All in all, Penrith have guys through the 17 who have performed well on an individual basis on balance. This hasnt exactly converted into a well oiled machine and there is a lot of work to pull together all of these performances into a quality football team. Attitude is one half of footy though, and it is clear that they have that in spades. They are playing for each other, showing pride in their jerseys and on the back of this, they have been at the plate swinging at the bottom of the ninth, every weekend, regardless of their opponent. You cant play the top sides every week forever though and that means there is an opportunity to take a lot of the hard work this team is doing, and start to get some rewards. The run over the next two month Origin period looks like this for Penrith:
Run to Come
New Zealand, Gold Coast, BYE, Melbourne, Manly, BYE, South Sydney, Wests Tigers, Cronulla
Should Win
Within this run is five teams below Penrith. All have shown positive signs at stages of the season, but have also looked completely out of their depth at times. The Warriors are in turmoil, have key injuries and have no more than a few wins against weak sides to their name. Gold Coast have wandered off a cliff like meerkats as is customary these days for the club. Manly have shown signs of life this season, however, have mixed wins against average teams, with losses to average teams and quality teams. Souths again, having appeared strong early, have been shown up against better opposition and weak both. A pattern is starting to emerge. I dont think I need to cover Wests Tigers. Suffice it to say, that Penrith will start strong favourites in each of these games.
Key Games
Lets take a look at the other two fixtures now. First the Storm who we play on a Saturday, three days after State of Origin One. Now Origin is nowhere near the bane it once was for Melbourne, however, as always, Cronk and Smith will be combatants, Those guys are getting older and have had serious issues combining this season until they put together a few clinical displays weak opposition. Lets take a look at that. Melbourne have played seven games against bottom eight teams. They have played two games against top eight sides. Their record stands at seven wins and two losses. Take a guess at who their two losses were against. Melbourne have had by far the easiest run of any side. They have shown encouraging signs in the last fortnight, and you can never discount Melbournes ability to craft a perfectly paced season. Then there is what some would consider a hoodoo, but what I would consider a long run of losses to a team who have been consistently better over a decade long period.
Finally we get to Cronulla. These guys are the real deal. They have an impressive pack that mixes size with skill and depth. The backline has speed to burn and the spine has match winners up and down. They have an outstanding mix of youth and experience, freakish skill and crafty guile. Most importantly they are getting it done on the field. They have played the best and theyve beaten the best. There is no reason why Cronulla cant win their maiden premiership this season. Happily Penrith were able to get a pretty solid marker in the sand when they played Cronulla two weeks ago at their home ground where they have gone unbeaten this year. Our pack matched their pack, they lifted when they looked down and they came up with the big play when the game was on the line. Who stepped up though? James Fisher-Harris. Then Soward missed a conversion. A few things will be different this time around. Cronulla will not be at home. They will be without Fifita and Gallen. They may even be without Maloney and Graham. While Penrith have guys in Mansour, Moylan and Cartwright who could easily fit into the New South Wales side, itd be safe to expect Merrin is the only guy at Penrith to feature in the series.
Expectations
Taking all that onboard, it seems a reasonable assumption to say that Penrith have the opportunity to put forward their credentials with five games they should win, and two games that they should be up to their eyeballs in going into the final minute. Luckily they should have a fair idea what that feels like. If Penrith can demonstrate the same level of application, along with continuing to improve parts of their game as they have in the first third of the season, they can definitely come out of this period with six wins. Historically 24 points would be good for third to fifth. So fourth sounds about right this season given we seem to have three teams who have set the pace and a bunch of others that look a little way off finding the kind of consistency to string together enough quality performances just yet. Thats a pretty good place to launch a charge into the finals, particularly when Penrith have what shapes to be a light run in with just two current top eight teams.
Penrith seem to be a star half short of putting together a true challenge, however, sitting at the head of the chasing pack with a young, improving team is a great spot to be. Whether it means being a smokey this season or building the foundations of a squad that can contend into the 2020s. So what do Penrith need to do to get to that point? Id say there is plenty of work to do. Play to the save level as they have for the first two months and they could probably win four games but that would simply put the side right at the edge of the eight and would probably suggest they arent going to be fighting it out with those top three sides.
Defensive Opportunities
Heres all the opportunities. Missed tackles, attacking structure, discipline, finishing and variety in attack. Ill start on missed tackles as it is the most glaring opportunity. Premierships are built on defence and while Penrith have done well to keep scores respectable, they are putting a huge amount of pressure on themselves by missing plenty. Who knows, maybe this has had an effect at the other end as weve seen numerous close losses with Penrith unable to pull out the big play in the final minutes. Either way, our defence is very committed and I think we are fairly well organised. Our scramble defence has played a big part in keeping us in games and negating the effects of missed tackles. Penrith are also doing fine reducing space by slowing down the play the ball and getting up quickly in defence. Put all that together and cut a good chunk of missed tackles out and Penrith are going to be a very tough side to score against. Looking at the stats, the issue is clearly the fringes and this lines up with most of the post match analysis. Soward, Hiku, Cartwright and Blake have the most glaring missed tackle and effective tackle counts. Cartwright has 34 missed at just under 4 per game and 88% effective tackles. Blake is surprisingly up there with these guys having missed 19 tackles at 2.5 per game at 82% effective. Now both these guys have work to do, but I think these stats are massively blown out by the fact that teams were running plays down this edge all day long trying to target Martin when he was fit. On the other side, there is Soward at 37 missed at 4 per game, and 76% effectiveness, while Hiku has 32 misses at 4 per game at 80%. I think its obvious to anyone watching that Blake, Cartwright and Hiku have no issue putting their body on the line or contact. They need to continue working on their technique, but probably more to the point, their decision making. Frustratingly, I think a lot of this just has to come with time. These are new combinations in defence and on the back of 18 months of a rotating door on the edges, time together may just be the answer. Soward is another story and he simply needs to be better. The last few years he has been fine. With a player like Soward, there is always the suggestion of a bodyguard. If Penrith were to assign Soward a bodyguard, the man would definitely be Yeo. He has by far the best numbers and misses less than 4% of tackles. His game is building nicely, and this could really solidify him as an integral member of this side. Adding to all this is the removal of Taylor who was like a blackhole in defence, racking up big counts, and missing very few. The team will take a while to adapt to not having a guy like that, but that is the price you pay for looking for go forward and attacking threat. The final piece of the puzzle here is Moylan. His defensive game has picked up massively since he went down with injury. You hear a lot about what the great fullbacks bring to a defensive structure and Moylan needs to be our general in defence. He is an incredibly smart player and reads the play as fast and as accurately as any player in the game right now. As captain, we will see him continue to build this part of his game and hopefully we start to see some cohesiveness in the defensive line resulting in less missed tackles.
Discipline
In the same space, Penrith need to improve their discipline, particularly in key moments of the game and with the opposition coming out of their own half. Im sure this is a universal experience for fans, but whenever watching Penrith, they have always struck me as a dumb team. I dont mean that in a mean sense, but they consistently give away unnecessary, poorly timed penalties, errors or offloads, Over the past four years, this has certainly improved and I think a big part of this is down to an increasingly effective control of the ruck. Penrith have conceded 71 penalties and received 67. Not too bad but these are all the little things that can ruin good work elsewhere, and we certainly saw that against Canberra last weekend with ball handling. I cant find too many stats on who has taken the penalties to suggest where the problem is, but it doesnt feel like anyone in particular. This is one for Griffin and Moylan to sort out, but certainly not the biggest issue.
Maximising Strengths
I think the issues above arent insurmountable by any means. Theres a decent chance that time together alone could be enough to significantly improve. On the other hand, time alone wont solve our attacking issues. Time will definitely help, with Moylan and Segeyaro working their way back into our structure, things will improve, but I see us playing a rather narrow game currently and a number of our attacking threats are not being engaged effectively. Currently, Penrith are relying too much on individual brilliance, grubbers and offloads to create tries. With Segeyaro and Moylan back from injury, there are significantly more players available to make that freak play which will help. Obviously its going ok as they are winning games against top sides. That crucial try to steal a close win, or the try to take the game away with twenty minutes remaining is what is lacking. Penrith lead the league in offloads by a long way. Cartwright, Merrin, Latimore and Hiku are the kings, but not the only guys creating this second phase play. What Penrith lack, and have done for years, is effective support play. If Moylan is to stay at fullback, this is another area he can improve. He and our other backs, Segeyaro and Peachey, need to be on Cartwrights wing whenever he gets the ball. While Penrith force the opposition to make more tackles through offloads, and break up defensive structures, they are not leading to line breaks regularly enough. How often have you seen a Cartwright offload onto a back who bursts through the line and streaks down field. With offloading merchants across the park, this should be a key source of points.
Attacking Structure
The biggest opportunity lies in the attacking structure. Individual brilliance, second phase play and strong application will only take Penrith so far towards a premiership. At a certain point, they will come up against sides with excellent defensive structure, and they will need an organised and effective attack that can work the opposition around and systematically break them down. This is what the top sides can do and why they constantly win games when they are off their game. With the spine finally assembled and fit, we will get to see just where they are at over the next few weeks. Moylan needs to take control of our attack in the opposition twenty. They need to work the defence around, get early ball to Moylan to feed a backline that has featured making dummy half runs, kick returns and popping up around the ground to contribute. Having Segeyaro at dummy half provides a great threat there, and it puts the defence in two minds, providing Soward or Wallace a bit more time to feed the ball wide. Moylan will bring poise at the last pass, but they also need to improve our depth and decoy runners. There are plenty of guys who can ball play on the edges with Cartwright and Peachey rarely receiving the ball with any sort of space or structure around them. Guys like Yeo (and Grevsmuhl if he comes early) need to provide the strong short ball option to again create uncertainty and create space if the ball goes further out.
Prognosis
There is plenty of positives to come out of the first phase of the season for Penrith. More than anything, having a relatively injury free side is a real bonus. It also means there are a huge amount of what ifs. Nobody could say how the side will progress and develop their defensive and offensive structures as they have had zero continuity and have played with huge holes across the park for so long. Griffin has shown he is willing to make the big calls, he is willing to give the young guys a chance and he has the team playing for their lives. There are plenty of areas which should improve over time spent playing together. I cant wait to see what Griffin has in terms of taking this talented squad and pulling together a well rounded game, tapping into the vast skill set in the squad and managing the weaknesses. More than anything, having proven their mettle in tough games against top sides, they have the opportunity to work some real fluency into their game against some less credentialed opponents. Penrith have a lot of pieces falling into place at the right time in order to announce themselves as a contender this year and in the future. Strap yourselves in and enjoy the rest of the season, it should be a good one!
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