What's new
The Front Row Forums

Register a free account today to become a member of the world's largest Rugby League discussion forum! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

MugaB

Coach
Messages
11,946
2001 the difference was 28 points and a points difference gap of
+433 to -326 with a 14 team comp! there’s no evidence less teams equal closer competition.
Well there you go, there really is no evidence then, so it really doesn’t matter if its 1994 or 2024, using points differential means shit, in the end some clubs are just run like basketcases and some aren't, using stats to show drop in quality doesn't really compute... but you can see the effect of 4 teams starting at the same year, hell you can see it with 2.. it's generally the marquees getting scooped up and a whole heap of journeymen to fill gaps, most of which probably would have retired after a few years of ESL than kicked on in a new franchise here, i think the dolphins worked coz they were only one team picking the eyes out of everyone else, imagine 2-3 teams doing that would really hurt the competition
 
Last edited:

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,676
Well there you go, there really is no evidence then, so it really doesn’t matter if its 1994 or 2024, using points differential means shit, in the end some clubs are just run like basketcases and some aren't, using stats to show drop in quality doesn't really compute... but you can see the effect of 4 teams starting at the same year, hell you can see it with 2.. it's generally the marquees getting scooped up and a whole heap of journeymen to fill gaps, most of which probably would have retired after a few years of ESL than kicked on in a new franchise here, i think the dolphins worked coz they were only one team picking the eyes out of everyone else, imagine 2-3 teams doing that would really hurt the competition
They won’t be admitting three teams in one go though, this whole turbo charging expansion is just bs in all likelihood. It’ll probably be staggered between 2024 and 2032, at the earliest. theyve admitted giving dolphins little lead in time wasn’t ideal and will learn from it.
 

MugaB

Coach
Messages
11,946
They won’t be admitting three teams in one go though, this whole turbo charging expansion is just bs in all likelihood. It’ll probably be staggered between 2024 and 2032, at the earliest. theyve admitted giving dolphins little lead in time wasn’t ideal and will learn from it.
Yes WE know this, yet there are nufftys on the forum who keep talking up 2 clubs enter at the same time, I mean not only is that dumb for the broadcaster deal sake, it also just strips the game of quality for years on end after it
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,676
Yes WE know this, yet there are nufftys on the forum who keep talking up 2 clubs enter at the same time, I mean not only is that dumb for the broadcaster deal sake, it also just strips the game of quality for years on end after it
people can have an opinion but the odds are it wont happen. As you say it will be partly timed to maximize content for tv negotiations, partly in appeasement of existing clubs and partly on minimizing player drain. It seems pretty certain they will announce club 18 at end of this season for admission in (likely) 2027. That coincides with the next tv deal starting 2028. Club 19, if 20 clubs really is their goal, will likely be announced 2030 for a 2032 admission to add another 12 games to content for the 2033 tv deal starting. Club 20 announced 2034 for a 2036 admission they may also do something radical with the comp structure at this point ready for the 2038 tv deal starting. But thats a long long time in RL and anything can happen in ten years lol.

Pure guesswork but if I was a betting man Id say that's better odds than 3 clubs in entering in quick succession from 2026-2032.
 

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
5,315
people can have an opinion but the odds are it wont happen. As you say it will be partly timed to maximize content for tv negotiations, partly in appeasement of existing clubs and partly on minimizing player drain. It seems pretty certain they will announce club 18 at end of this season for admission in (likely) 2027. That coincides with the next tv deal starting 2028. Club 19, if 20 clubs really is their goal, will likely be announced 2030 for a 2032 admission to add another 12 games to content for the 2033 tv deal starting. Club 20 announced 2034 for a 2036 admission they may also do something radical with the comp structure at this point ready for the 2038 tv deal starting. But thats a long long time in RL and anything can happen in ten years lol.

Pure guesswork but if I was a betting man Id say that's better odds than 3 clubs in entering in quick succession from 2026-2032.
Re: comp structure, I'd love us to eventually get to 24 teams, create two conferences and then buy the Superleague to add a 12 team European conference to help push the NRL as a multi-national brand.
 

cinders7

Juniors
Messages
17
Re: comp structure, I'd love us to eventually get to 24 teams, create two conferences and then buy the Superleague to add a 12 team European conference to help push the NRL as a multi-national brand.
Having one organisation run the only two fully pro comps wouldn't be a good look when we still don't have official recognition as a sport. It'd play into the IRB's argument that RL is nothing more than a rebel league.
 
Messages
246
Bloody hell... what sort of revenue levels would the comp be at under a 24 team structure? 1.5b pa? That'd be a 30m annual grant based on current split... Fk me NZR and RA would be shitting bricks if it ever gets to that.
 

Canard

Immortal
Messages
34,352
Bloody hell... what sort of revenue levels would the comp be at under a 24 team structure? 1.5b pa? That'd be a 30m annual grant based on current split... Fk me NZR and RA would be shitting bricks if it ever gets to that.

24 teams and 4 in NZ isn't even remotely feasible in our lifetimes.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,676
Yea... the idea of another 3 NRL teams in NZ is hard to comprehend.

But you dont think a 24 team comp overall within, say, 20 years isnt feasible?
The cost of new teams keeps going up. The games revenue would need to keep pace with the cost of new teams admission. Its hard to see unless something dramatic happens in revenue generation for the game in the next decade or two (in tv world or gambling, govt or somewhere else not yet seen). Its taken 16 years to go from 15 to 17 clubs.

If NRL could land an AFL size media deal then in theory that would easily pay for 4 new clubs coming in. But there's some big If's in that.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,676
I would see going to 18 and that being it for around a decade, then maybe 2 more in the next decade tops.
I think what may fast track that is PNG weirdly. If PNG come in as club 18 and the Govt is fully paying the cost to the NRL, and then some, it does open the door for the NRL to use the Tv revenue increase in 2028> to fast track two more clubs in during that tv period. That seems to be their thinking from what they they have said about 'turbo charging' expansion and a vision for 20 clubs.
 
Messages
12,602
20 teams wont happen before 2030 imo and 24 won't happen before 2050 if ever. Some folks are getting a little too excited...
I wouldn't be surprised if they added Brisbane 3 and then shut up shop at 18 teams.

Money talks. Bullshit walks.

Expansion is going to be funded by the broadcasters. There's only one location in the world that the broadcasters will want.

Fordham: “We’re really committed to working with the NRL in growing the competition, and Queensland is a big part of that. We think there’s room for another team here in Queensland, and the Dolphins have been the perfect example.

“The more games we can get played featuring Queensland teams in Southeast Queensland, the better. The engagement in rugby league here is just next level, and the energy of the crowds has a material impact on the quality of the broadcasts that we make. It helps create atmosphere, it makes the commentary team rise, it makes the production team rise.” Head of Strategy WWOS, Simon Fordham

 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
65,676
I wouldn't be surprised if they added Brisbane 3 and then shut up shop at 18 teams.

Money talks. Bullshit walks.

Expansion is going to be funded by the broadcasters. There's only one location in the world that the broadcasters will want.

Fordham: “We’re really committed to working with the NRL in growing the competition, and Queensland is a big part of that. We think there’s room for another team here in Queensland, and the Dolphins have been the perfect example.​
“The more games we can get played featuring Queensland teams in Southeast Queensland, the better. The engagement in rugby league here is just next level, and the energy of the crowds has a material impact on the quality of the broadcasts that we make. It helps create atmosphere, it makes the commentary team rise, it makes the production team rise.” Head of Strategy WWOS, Simon Fordham​

lol
 

Latest posts

Top