Most people I know with Sky have a general apathy for the company and would jump ship in an instant. Part of being essentially a monopoly has had NZers paying overs for a while.
It’s a fine balance for Sky as if they didn’t have the NRL their business would suffer, if they lost union too they’d go under overnight. However they don’t have endless money either and would seek to take advantage of being the only bidder, only other real option is something like Watch NRL or similar service cutting out the middle man.
This is what the usual suspects (Wb, Gobs multis) on this thread really don't understand.
Outside of maybe the Auckland league bubble the Warriors, and especially the NRL, don't drive subscriptions, the rugby does - that's a simple fact, the last two years of Warriors hype doesn't change that. Now, back in the early 90s the Winfield Cup essentially saved Sky, but that was due to the fact there was one rugby game a week on TV, and a year or two later Super rugby started.
They will probably pay a premium to keep the Warriors from going to someone else, but if the NRL played hardball and tried for too much they'd likely fail.