New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[Red&BlackBear]

Favourites? According to who? Folks on here? The Papers?
I'm not so sure you want to pull that thread mate lol
Why do you head down the local and place some bets on the " Favourite "

Please enjoy your imaginary comfort while it lasts.

NZ 2 are clear Favourites because they are in front on every metric that the NRL are looking at. Every single aspect is superior to any other bid by far.
Reality doesn't make headlines or get clicks though and favouritism isn't forged entirely by logic but popular public opinion which will decive the masses, as it has.

I'd be very concerned if I was you too.

Don’t know what metrics you are referring to mate.

But whatever they are they’re not what the ARLC have been emphasising either directly or indirectly for awhile now. Pretty clear Dolphins model is their heavily preferred expansion franchise model with a government funded model coming in close second.

Either NZ2 have been incredibly incognito with their bid and there’s been on going discussions with ARLC that no one is privy to or their model doesn’t stack up and they’ve been instructed what they need to improve on and that requires more time.

Known variables:
* Yearly NRL games in Perth to test market appetite for NRL.
* Sunday 6:00pm games have been allocated last few seasons to test value of that time slot (it will be the broadcasters Perth preferred time slot with a 4pm WAST kick off).
* ARLC instructed Bears and WA to join bids so they could have a model close to Dolphins. IE Existing pathways, existing brand, existing fans, existing assets and commercial value to add to a new market.
* Australian Government and coalition committed $600m to PNG RL.
* PNG officials (both political and bid) are working closely with government and ARLC to finalise deal.
* Commissioners chosen to head expansion viability case Peter Beattie and Kate Jones in regular contact with Western Bears and PNG NRL.

What I know is that South Island Kea need to distance themselves from David Moffett if they want to be the NZ2 bid that kicks clear of the other NZ2 bids. Plenty inner circle NRL club chairman’s do not like this man, responsible for the bullshit rationalisation of the game in 1999-2000. He is tainted.

 

[Wb1234]

Don’t know what metrics you are referring to mate.

But whatever they are they’re not what the ARLC have been emphasising either directly or indirectly for awhile now. Pretty clear Dolphins model is their heavily preferred expansion franchise model with a government funded model coming in close second.

Hence we got the Dolphins, hence we get yearly games in Perth to test the market, hence the 6:00pm Sunday game time slots to test the viewership numbers and viability of that time slot moving forwards, hence Bears were instructed to join WA to establish a bid that has existing fan base and pathways to further strengthen WA’s case, hence we have Peter Beattie who is heading the expansion viability document regularly travelling to WA, hence we got the Australian government forking out $600m, hence we have government, ARLC & PNG politicians and officials having on going conversations.

So either NZ2 have been incredibly incognito with their bid and there’s been on going discussions with ARLC that no one is privy to or their model doesn’t stack up against the two above and they’ve been instructed what they need to improve on and that requires more time.

Pfft one yearly game in Perth or a double header

Nz has multiples games a year away from Auckland that all sold out this year

They made Perth link with the bears because the afl clubs there are cashed up and Perth has no juniors

A chch nrl side will have higher revenues than the crusaders super rugby side and juniors a plenty

And nz are valuable for tv in nz

Perth weren’t hence they had to link with the bears for value

 

[Red&BlackBear]

Pfft one yearly game in Perth or a double header

Nz has multiples games a year away from Auckland that all sold out this year

They made Perth link with the bears because the afl clubs there are cashed up and Perth has no juniors

A chch nrl side will have higher revenues than the crusaders super rugby side and juniors a plenty

And nz are valuable for tv in nz

Perth weren’t hence they had to link with the bears for value

Warriors already exist to service NZ. Hence they’re called NZ Warriors, not Auckland. Therefore they should take games to the rest of country.

If NRL and broadcasters wanted to pull the trigger on immediate market appetite for NZ2 they would slot a new time slot like 1pm Saturday (3pm local time) etc or put Warriors on prime time. Neither has happened… yet.

What is happening though is Perth games have been on at prime time and 6:00pm time slot is a real thing. It doesn’t matter what devalue you think that is, those are known variables.

The biggest TV market is and will always be east coast Australia. NZ is a minor player and the money generated by Sky pales in comparison to 9 and Fox. Perth opens up the 6:00pm time slot for the full season. NZ2 doesn’t. Sky will not pay much more for just another team, they need to pay more for access to more games in general.

NZ will get a second team for sure but please, let’s not use numbers without context as reasons why.

Also, there’s multiple reasons why WA and Bears linked up. Media reports and posts here aren’t even telling half the story. If there’s one person on this forum that you don’t need to try emphasis it to, it’s me.

Bring on Western Bears, PNG & South Island NZ.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Warriors already exist to service NZ. Hence they’re called NZ Warriors, not Auckland. Therefore they should take games to the rest of country.

If NRL and broadcasters wanted to pull the trigger on market appetite for NZ2 they would slot a new time slot like 1pm Saturday (3pm local time) etc or put Warriors on prime time. Neither has happened.

What is happening is Perth games have been on at prime time and 6:00pm time slot is a real thing. It doesn’t matter what devalue you think that is, those are known variables.

The biggest TV market is and will always be east coast Australia. NZ is a minor player and the money generated by Sky pales in comparison to 9 and Fox. Perth opens up the 6:00pm time slot for the full season. NZ2 doesn’t.

NZ will get a second team for sure but please, let’s not use numbers without context as reasons why.

Literally go back to page 1

 

[Red&BlackBear]

Literally go back to page 1

Doesn’t mean shit. Since then PNG and Perth have evolved and taken priority because value of both have a tangible price put on them. $600m for PNG and Perth have something broadcasters want that NZ2 cannot give. 6pm AEST time slot is worth more to the stakeholders that pay for the game than what NZ2 has to offer right now.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Doesn’t mean shit. Since then PNG and Perth have evolved and taken priority because value of both have a tangible price put on them. $600m for PNG and Perth have something broadcasters want that NZ2 cannot give. 6pm AEST time slot is worth more to the stakeholders that pay for the game than what NZ2 has to offer right now.

How old are you ?

 

[Red&BlackBear]

How old are you ?

Old enough to understand how big business and the commercial world works.

Yourself?

 

[Gobsmacked]

Old enough to understand how big business and the commercial world works.

Yourself?

And exactly how old would that be buddy ?
11 ? 12 ?
Why are you here?
Get some friends and go ride your bike.

 

[Red&BlackBear]

And exactly how old would that be buddy ?
11 ? 12 ?
Why are you here?
Get some friends and go ride your bike.

Mate, you’re the numpty who is failing to understand that this game is a business.

Until you can understand that, you’re just going to argue against facts all day long to the sound of your little tune. Best of luck to you and your crusade. You’re quickly going to become this next decades Perth Red though.

 

[Wb1234]

Warriors already exist to service NZ. Hence they’re called NZ Warriors, not Auckland. Therefore they should take games to the rest of country.

If NRL and broadcasters wanted to pull the trigger on immediate market appetite for NZ2 they would slot a new time slot like 1pm Saturday (3pm local time) etc or put Warriors on prime time. Neither has happened… yet.

What is happening though is Perth games have been on at prime time and 6:00pm time slot is a real thing. It doesn’t matter what devalue you think that is, those are known variables.

The biggest TV market is and will always be east coast Australia. NZ is a minor player and the money generated by Sky pales in comparison to 9 and Fox. Perth opens up the 6:00pm time slot for the full season. NZ2 doesn’t. Sky will not pay much more for just another team, they need to pay more for access to more games in general.

NZ will get a second team for sure but please, let’s not use numbers without context as reasons why.

Also, there’s multiple reasons why WA and Bears linked up. Media reports and posts here aren’t even telling half the story. If there’s one person on this forum that you don’t need to try emphasis it to, it’s me.

Bring on Western Bears, PNG & South Island NZ.

Perth bears are playing at two dumps (hbf and nso)

Chch will have two excellent stadiums to use

Nz tv deal is 32 million pa for one team

And despite them being called the nz warriors they are an Auckland team

Maybe have taken one home game away from there in 30 years

For east coast Australian viewers Perth can play Sunday 630 est but similarly nz2 offers Friday 6 pm or Sunday midday for east coast viewers

There isn’t a single metric where a Perth team beats nz2

 

[Red&BlackBear]

Perth bears are playing at two dumps (hbf and nso)

Chch will have two excellent stadiums to use

Nz tv deal is 32 million pa for one team

And despite them being called the nz warriors they are an Auckland team

Maybe have taken one home game away from there in 30 years

There isn’t a single metric where a Perth team beats nz2

Yes there is. The most important one of all. Broadcasters want that 6pm Sunday time (AEST) slot to run all season. So unless NZ is prepared to kick off at 8pm local time….

Also, NZ TV deal is for all games, not just Warriors. Hence they broadcast all games. I like you mate, but let’s not get into a debate here. There’s huge flaws in your argument.

 

[Wb1234]

Yes there is. The most important one of all. Broadcasters want that 6pm Sunday time (AEST) slot to run all season. So unless NZ is prepared to kick off at 8pm local time….

Also, NZ TV deal is for all games, not just Warriors. Hence they broadcast all games. I like you mate, but let’s not get into a debate here. There’s huge flaws in your argument.

Perth can’t run 6 pm Sunday on their own

 

[Gobsmacked]

Yes there is. The most important one of all. Broadcasters want that 6pm Sunday time (AEST) slot to run all season. So unless NZ is prepared to kick off at 8pm local time….

Also, NZ TV deal is for all games, not just Warriors. Hence they broadcast all games. I like you mate, but let’s not get into a debate here. There’s huge flaws in your argument.

So why can't we play at 6pm?
Alright Perth fills the magic time of"6pm" so long as it played in Perth? That's 11 home game out of 26 but surely they won't force them to play the same time slot every week, it has to be equal right? So they have to host a Thursday, a Friday 6pm and 8pm , Saturday 330, 530 and 730, Sunday 2pm

So we're left with what 3 games? In this magical time of 6pm is OK on TV but not if it's played where it broadcast? 3 games?
NZ has the actual time that is hard to fill that is 6pm.. hard for people to get to the game... but in NZ it's 8pm prime time for NZ TV deal and fills the spot in Australian TV

Strange argument to hang your hat on

 

[Red&BlackBear]

Perth can’t run 6 pm Sunday on their own

No they can’t but for a majority of home games they will. I also suspect they will have a big chunk of their away games on at that time as well.

Don’t get this confused. I am not arguing against NZ2. I’m arguing Godsmacked random opinion where he believes NZ2 are favourites over PNG and Perth when they clearly aren’t. When there is no evidence from any data or information that we have that Western Bears and PNG aren’t the next ones in.

I want South Island NZ. But some sanity needs to be applied here in relation to when.

 

[Perth Red]

Perth bears are playing at two dumps (hbf and nso)

Chch will have two excellent stadiums to use

Nz tv deal is 32 million pa for one team

And despite them being called the nz warriors they are an Auckland team

Maybe have taken one home game away from there in 30 years

For east coast Australian viewers Perth can play Sunday 630 est but similarly nz2 offers Friday 6 pm or Sunday midday for east coast viewers

There isn’t a single metric where a Perth team beats nz2

Want to make a bet on who is club 18, perth or nz2? Maybe you’ll honour this one?

not one single metric? Apart from govt support, $30mill start up cash and a fanbase that could be anything from day one.

 

[Red&BlackBear]

So why can't we play at 6pm?
Alright Perth fills the magic time of"6pm" so long as it played in Perth? That's 11 home game out of 26 but surely they won't force them to play the same time slot every week, it has to be equal right? So they have to host a Thursday, a Friday 6pm and 8pm , Saturday 330, 530 and 730, Sunday 2pm

So we're left with what 3 games? In this magical time of 6pm is OK on TV but not if it's played where it broadcast? 3 games?
NZ has the actual time that is hard to fill that is 6pm.. hard for people to get to the game... but in NZ it's 8pm prime time for NZ TV deal and fills the spot in Australian TV

Strange argument to hang your hat on

NZ rarely plays prime time games in Australia. Thats raw facts. Debate it all you want.

6pm Friday
3pm Saturday
5:30pm Saturday
2pm Sunday

Those are the time slots Warriors are allocated more often than not. NZ2 will be the same.

6pm Sunday at the moment is played 6-8 or so games a year. It is increasing. This will be the permanent game 9 time slot. Perth is increasingly favourable for the reason that’s it’s 4pm local time for games.

It’s not a strange argument at all. It’s what the stakeholders who pay the big bucks for the game want. NZ2 can blow Perth and PNG off the park in every other metric but if that’s what broadcasters want, that’s what they’ll get.

Happy to come revisit this in late October/early November when Western Bears and PNG are announce to say I told you so, or admit you were right if NZ2 beats them both to enter first.

 

[Wb1234]

No they can’t but for a majority of home games they will. I also suspect they will have a big chunk of their away games on at that time as well.

Don’t get this confused. I am not arguing against NZ2. I’m arguing Godsmacked random opinion where he believes NZ2 are favourites over PNG and Perth when they clearly aren’t. When there is no evidence from any data or information that we have that Western Bears and PNG aren’t the next ones in.

I want South Island NZ. But some sanity needs to be applied here in relation to when.

Fair enough

Perth and png are locked in as 18 and 19

I’m saying they will be team 20

2027 come in or 2030 not a huge difference